Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to my DFS cash game breakdown for the UFC 251 pay-per-view card in Abu Dhabi, which is headlined by Jorge Masvidal vs. Kamaru Usman! In this weekly article, I will outline three fighters who present strong floors and ceilings for your DraftKings cash games (Double Up and H2H contests). This is one of the best cards the UFC has put together in a long time, as it features three title fights and will take place on Fight Island. So make sure you set your lineups and enjoy!
Kamaru Usman ($8,900) vs. Jorge Masvidal
Usman is the best DFS play on the UFC 251 card. He enters his second UFC title defense as a -225 favorite against Masvidal. When looking at cash games on DraftKings, it’s important to target fighters with high-floor outcomes, and there is no better way to do that than to use a fighter in a five-round fight. We have three of those on Saturday night, and Usman is the biggest favorite out of the three. Usman is 11-0 in his UFC career, and I’m very high on him this weekend. Usman should have a big wrestling advantage in this fight, so he’ll be looking to take Masvidal down throughout the contest. On DraftKings, we are targeting wrestlers with finishing ability, and Usman checks that box this week. Usman averages 3.44 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed multiple takedowns on all but three of his UFC opponents. Of those three, two are world-class grapplers in Colby Covington and Demian Maia. The only other time Usman didn’t secure two takedowns was in his first-round knockout of Sérgio Moraes. Because of his takedown ability, Usman is an extremely high DFS scorer, even in decision wins, as he has scored 176, 132, 148 in his last three bouts, two of which were decisions. As mentioned earlier, Usman also has a chance to finish this fight, which is shown by his +215 inside-the-distance line set by oddsmakers. Usman should be able to hold his own while standing in this fight, but he will eventually look to get the fight in his wheelhouse on the ground. He will grind out Masvidal and regardless of whether or not he gets a finish, he should rack up enough points to make it worth eating the large ownership he likely comes with.
Volkan Oezdemir ($8,400) vs. Jiri Prochazka
Volkan Oezdemir is riding a two-fight win streak going into Saturday night and will welcome UFC newcomer and ex-RIZIN champ Jiri Prochazka to the Octagon as a -145 favorite. Oezdemir is a former title challenger at the UFC level and is known for his powerful punches that can put his opponents out at any moment, hence his nickname “No Time”. Prochazka is 26-3 with 23 KO in his pro career and is a prospect lots of MMA fans have been excited to see in the Octagon. This fight should be full of fireworks, as shown by oddsmakers setting the total at 1.5 rounds. When we see a fight with an O/U of 1.5, it’s a must-target on DraftKings because of the implied chances of a finish that will score well in DFS. I side with Oezdemir in this spot, as I trust his UFC experience. He has shared the octagon with Daniel Cormier, Dominick Reyes and Aleksandar Raki?. Meanwhile, this will be the hardest fight of Prochazka’s career, as most of his RIZIN fights have been against opponents who pose no real threat to him. Prochazka has been able to walk most of his opponents down without worrying about his own defense, but he won’t be able to do that in this fight. At $8,300 on DraftKings, Oezdemir has a great chance to be in the optimal lineup, if he can secure a finish, which is lined at +145 by oddsmakers. While he may not be as highly owned as the other two fighters highlighted in this article, he makes for a strong play in the crowded mid-range this Saturday night.
Max Holloway ($7,100) vs. Alexander Volkanovski
This fight is a rematch of the UFC 245 title bout, when Max Holloway, one of the greatest featherweights of all time, lost his belt to the current 145-pound king, Alexander Volkanovski. Their first fight was competitive, but ultimately Volkanovski clearly deserved to win a decision, which he did 50-45, 48-47, 48-47. Volkanovski came in with a great game plan from the start of the fight, landing a whopping 75 leg kicks against the Hawaiian. The leg kicks really seemed to bother Holloway, and those gave Volkanovski the first three rounds of the fight fairly clearly. Holloway fought well in the championship rounds, outstriking Volkanovski and winning both rounds on two of the judge’s scorecards. For DFS purposes, the main takeaway from that December fight was the sheer amount of volume both fighters landed. Volkanovski landed 157 significant strikes, scoring 109 DK points. Holloway came back with 134 significant strikes of his own, putting up 67 DK points in a loss. I think Holloway has a pretty good shot at getting his belt back in this fight, if he can check leg kicks and start landing volume earlier in the fight. He was most successful when he came forward and got into long exchanges with Volkanovski towards the end of their first fight. If Holloway wins, he is near-lock to score 100 points on DK, which would be extremely valuable at only $7,100. What makes Holloway such a good play is his floor. It’s not often that a +170 fighter will find their way into my cash game picks, however, if Holloway doesn’t get finished, he has a huge floor just based on all the volume he lands. If you look at that last fight, Holloway would be near 10x value in this spot with a replica performance. He hasn’t landed less than 125 significant strikes since 2017, against Jose Aldo, a fight where he secured a third-round KO. Holloway is going to be very high owned on this slate in cash games, but it’s for good reason. If he doesn’t get finished, it’s nearly impossible for him to kill you at this price. Don’t overthink this one. Lock Holloway in and differentiate elsewhere.
