Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC Vegas 49 in Las Vegas. There are a couple spots that I feel good about in the props market but be sure to check out the rest of the FTN crew’s bets FTN Bets Tracker in case we add anything prior to fight night.
As always, I will give the bets that I have placed below based on where I see the most value in the betting odds and how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA betting Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
Jonathan Martinez vs. Alejandro Perez fight does NOT start Round 3
(+166, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Martinez has landed five knockdowns in the UFC and has been knocked down three times. He is a fighter who has legitimate power but also shaky durability, and I think we are seeing value on unders in this fight because he is known as more of a decision fighter. Additionally, Perez is similar in a sense in that 15 of his 22 wins have come via finish, but his durability makes him untrustworthy as well. I am expecting a firefight between these two — it’s likely that we see someone get dropped and finished, and the number does not reflect that.
Fares Ziam to win in Round 2
(+750, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Terrance McKinney is a classic “kill or be killed” style of fighter and has only fought outside of the first round twice in his career. If Ziam can withstand the early storm, then he will likely start to take over toward the end of the first round. He is a much better technical striker and once the cardio of McKinney fails him then he is liable to get finished. Any late-round props on Ziam are good here.
Misha Cirkunov vs. Wellington Turman fight does NOT start Round 3
(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is just a good violence spot as both of these guys are made of glass. Cirkunov has been finished in six of his seven losses and all of them came inside the first two rounds. But he also has some serious finishing potential with 13 of his 15 wins coming inside the distance. Turman does not have quite as much finishing upside but both guys are fragile and liable to get hurt in this fight so I do not expect it to last long and would be surprised to see the third round.
