Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC Vegas 48 in Las Vegas. There are a couple spots that I feel good about in the props market but be sure to check out the rest of the FTN crew’s bets FTN Bets Tracker in case we add anything prior to fight night.
As always, I will give the bets that I have placed below based on where I see the most value in the betting odds and how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA betting Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
Jim Miller to win by Submission in Round 1
(+800, FanDuel Sportsbook)
This should not surprise anyone, as I believe I have bet this prop in every Jim Miller fight since I started doing content at FTN. Miller is a savvy veteran with a legitimate ground game and good wrestling to get the fight there early on. His cardio is suspect, but we know he will likely be aggressive in getting it to the mat where he should have a clear advantage over Nikolas Motta. Thirteen of his 18 submission victories have all come inside the first round, and I think he has a good case to make this number 14 Saturday.
Abdul Razak Alhassan to win by KO in Round 1
(+500, FanDuel Sportsbook)
This guy has burned me before, but that is not stopping me from taking another small poke at his best path to victory. In recent fights, Alhassan has been forced to defensively wrestle and has gassed out very quickly without having much of a chance to land his big power shots. I still am expecting him to gas out but at least he is facing Joaquin Buckley who will likely stand and trade with him until someone falls. Of his 11 knockout victories, all of them came inside the first round and this is a big number against a guy like Buckley that has suspect durability.
Chad Anheliger vs. Jesse Strader fight does NOT start Round 3
(-120, FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is an easy violence bet this week, as neither guy is very skilled and both are typically looking to finish the fight. Of Anheliger’s 16 career fights, just two of them have gone the distance. While Strader has just seven professional fights, just one of them have reached the third round. I have concerns with both fighters, but this is a classic early finish style of matchup where both guys have major holes defensively. I am mainly expecting the finish to come from the Anheliger side as Strader is very reckless entering the pocket and his durability is a bit worse as well. Either way, I doubt this gets out of the second round.
