Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC Vegas 31 in Las Vegas. This card does not have the same star power as the PPV card last week, but that’s OK because I actually do better on the lesser-known fighters anyway. There are a couple spots that I feel good about in the props market but be sure to check out the rest of the FTN crew’s bets FTN Bets Tracker in case we add anything prior to fight night.
As always, I will give the bets that I have placed below based on where I see the most value in the betting odds and how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA betting Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night on Saturday. Here is a look at my favorite betting props for this weekend’s UFC 264 betting card.
Rodrigo Nascimento to win by Submission +100 (1x to win 1x)
Nascimento is going to have a massive grappling edge over Alan Baudot. What I love about Nascimento is that he knows where he has the advantage and is aggressive in getting the fight to the ground early. Coming off a knockout loss, he will not wait long before shooting for a takedown against Baudot where he is likely met with little resistance. Getting plus money on this is going to feel like a steal once the fight hits the ground.
Khalid Taha to win by KO/TKO +500 (1x to win 5x)
Taha is a dangerous power puncher for a man his size. Of his 13 professional victories, nine have come by knockout. He turns most of his opponents into wrestlers quick when they feel his power. However, Sergey Morozov is likely going to keep the fight standing as well and wants to move forward and control the center. This has the makings of an absolute blood bath for as long as it last. If Taha touches the chin of Morozov he is going out cold and this is a great number for it.
Rodolfo Vieira to win by Submission in Round 1 +200 (.5x to win 1x)
Vieira is super sketchy to back as a favorite because he is so limited in his win condition. However, if you’re going to give me plus money for him to meet his win condition against a willing dance partner in Dustin Stoltzfus — who is likely going to grapple with him — then I am in. Stoltzfus has never been submitted in his career, but he has fought nowhere near the level of competition as Vieira who is a high-level blackbelt in BJJ. Vieira has terrible cardio so needs to get the fight down early and go to work which he has tried to do in all his fights. If this fight hits the mat and it will, we are getting two-to-one odds on one of the best grapplers in the world versus a competent BJJ guy at your local gym. You do the math.
