Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC 272 in Las Vegas. There are a couple spots that I feel good about in the props market but be sure to check out the rest of the FTN crew’s bets FTN Bets Tracker in case we add anything prior to fight night.
As always, I will give the bets that I have placed below based on where I see the most value in the betting odds and how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA betting Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Brian Kelleher UNDER 2.5 Rounds
(+120, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Nurmagomedov is the real deal. He is an undefeated prospect has the typical Dagestan grappling skills but also has some high-level striking to go along with it. He is 13-0 with six of his wins coming by submission including three of his last four fights. I expect him to land takedowns and break Kelleher on the mat. Kelleher is outclassed everywhere in this matchup, but he is a finisher and on the miniscule chance that he wins then it’s likely coming that way. Getting any plus money on this is a good bet, as I am not expecting it to hit the scorecards.
Kevin Holland to win by Submission
(+850, FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is just a bad number on this prop bet for Holland. He is not known for his grappling, but he does have five submission victories on his record including multiple guillotine chokes, which is key in this matchup. Alex Oliveira has been submitted six times in his career including in two of his last three fights. I expect him to try to wrestle here and I could see Holland having multiple chances to cash this ticket. Other sportsbooks have this line as short as +550 for reference which is closer to accurate than this.
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Nicolae Negumereanu Fight Starts Round 3
(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is a classic overreaction in my opinion. Both fighters are coming off fights that ended inside the first round and that is why we are getting such a good number for this fight to go over. Both guys are historically durable despite Nzechukwu being knocked out against Da Un Jung in his last fight. Neither guy is overly aggressive, and I am expecting this to be an ugly low-paced fight where both guys are landing but neither is close to finishing. This fight starts Round 3 at a high clip and I am expecting it to go the full 15 minutes.
