Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports with UFC 259 in Las Vegas. We currently have 15 scheduled bouts for Saturday, which makes for an awesome card and plenty of good betting opportunities as well. Fingers crossed that we do not lose any fights come Saturday due to COVID-19 or missing weight. There are a couple spots that I feel good about in the props market but be sure to check out the rest of the FTN crew’s bets FTN Bets Tracker in case we add anything prior to fight night. As always, I will give the bets that I have placed below based on where I see the most value in the betting odds and how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA betting discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night on Saturday.
Dominick Cruz to win by Decision (Points) +180 (1x to win 1.8x)
This is a great bounce-back spot for Dominick Cruz after getting knocked out by Henry Cejudo coming off a four-year layoff. Cruz is still an elite striker when you factor in his footwork and his fight IQ with nonstop feints and traps for his opponents. Casey Kenney is more of a walk forward and trade blows type of fighter, which is not going to work this time. Cruz is also the better offensively wrestler and should be able to land takedowns, although, I doubt he does much with them but still helps score points and win rounds. This is a classic overreaction as the market is treating Cruz as if he is totally washed, and I do not believe that to be the case.
Drew Dober to win by KO in Round 1 +1500 (.5x to win 7.5x) to win by KO in Round 2 +1900 (.5x to win 9.5x)
Drew Dober is an elite boxer in this division. He's very good at countering his opponents and finding the target with heavy shots. He is coming into this matchup with three straight knockout victories and two of those have come inside Round 1. Islam Makhachev is very good defensively and could dominate Dober on the mat, but these are massive numbers for a guy like Dober, whose only real path to victory is a knockout in this matchup. By targeting the Rounds 1 and 2 props, you are getting much better numbers than betting the KO prop by itself. Of course, we would lose if he knocks him out in Round 3 but if this makes it there, then it is likely because Makhachev is taking him down and controlling him nonstop. Must keep the books honest with these ones.
Aljamain Sterling to win by Submission or Decision (points) +125 (1x to win 1.25x)
I strongly favor Aljamain Sterling in this matchup and will be adding a big bet on him come Saturday as well. However, this is a great prop to target for those who missed out on the early value moneyline for Sterling. He has just two knockouts in his career and Yan has proven to be very durable, so you are not losing much equity by eliminating the knockout here. Sterling has much better footwork, quickness, wrestling and grappling than Yan and has the exact blueprint to beat him. AND NEW!
