Whitestone’s Waiver Watch: NFBC Main Event (8/26)

The Good, The Mediocre And The Ugly

MLB Counter = 80.7% of the season complete

There are now five weeks left in the season (and we’ve played about four-fifths based on games played), so as we wind down 2024, I decided to check more deeply on the Wow (biggest winning bid of the week) winning bids that I’ve listed in this space. So here’s the premise — let’s say you had unlimited FAAB and could make big bids every week. However , the catch is that you would only get the one top player won for the most FAAB dollars each week — so you’d be dependent on the single Main Event fantasy manager who chose to spend the most. Would you, on balance, be happy? It sounds promising, because most of the players won in Wow bids are the ones that everyone is trying to acquire — the hot rookies, and the big names coming back from injury. It would seem that the only drawback preventing many of us from getting these players was an unwillingness to spend the necessary FAAB since we need to retain some of it for the future). But if we reviewed all of them — they probably are mostly good player additions, right? I decided to try to find out.

In order to review these Wow bids, I looked at the stats these players accumulated from the date of acquisition through Aug. 24. I attempted to grade each one, but even if you disagree with the exact grades, I think they generally fall into three buckets — good player additions (ranked A or B); mediocre additions (somewhere in the C range); and those that failed (graded D or F). Here is the list with the Wow bid amount and the date they were added.

The Good

The headliners here are Taj Bradley and Blake Snell — who have turned out to be excellent additions. Devin Williams and Ryan Walker have been great, but they were added much more recently, so they have not impacted fantasy teams as much. Brandon Nimmo slipped into the top category despite a mediocre batting average because of his across-the-board production, although the $578 price tag is still a bit steep. And James Wood has certainly been a solid if not spectacular addition. But these seven players would definitely be welcome additions to any fantasy team.

The Mediocre

These players were all a bit disappointing but did provide some value. However, in the end they probably were not worth the hefty price tags and did not move the fantasy teams that acquired them towards the top of the standings. Nolan Schanuel has been solid but nothing truly special; James McArthur was good for a while and then lost the closer job; Wilyer Abreu hasn’t played regularly all season; Pete Crow-Armstrong has been great for steals but has the drawback of a weak batting average; Wyatt Langford hasn’t gotten into top gear all season, and the last four have put up decent but not outstanding stats in shorter time frames. These nine were fine but haven’t been huge successes.

The Ugly

These really didn’t work out. Christian Scott has great talent but didn’t really show it and got hurt (that was the highest Wow bid of the year by the way); Reed Garrett never really had the Mets’ closer job; Ben Brown got injured right after pick-up; Ryne Stanek didn’t really even sustain his co-closer role and got traded; Rece Hinds stopped hitting homers and got immediately demoted; and Jordan Montgomery — let’s just say it’s a lost season for him.

So the three buckets total out at 7 (32%) graded A or B; 9 (41%) in the C range; and 6 (27%) graded D or F. It’s pretty evenly distributed, and even worse than the top four widest free agent acquisitions each week that I’ve been tracking in the Colosseum (see below), and yet these are the biggest FAAB buys of the week. Even for big spenders, it should cause a rethink about whether you should consider such a large bid. 

NFBC Main Event FAAB 23: FAAB Wallets Seem Leiter

In FAAB 23 Sunday, spending continues to weaken as Main Event managers have mostly emptied their FAAB accounts. The 10 widest acquisitions this week are in the chart below, and Main Event managers (see below) were divided on where to throw their hefty $10-15 bids. Jack Leiter (who faces the 31-100 White Sox) was the top addition, but even he commanded only an average winning bid of just over $7. Second was Jasson (still in the minors) Domínguez — who got an average winning bid of $16. The Nos. 3 and 4 additions were wannabe Cubs closers Porter Hodge and Jorge López — Hodge was added in more leagues (39 to 37) but López garnered a higher average winning bid ($18 to $14). Of the rest of the top 10, only Connor Norby ($13) rose above the $10 average winning bid threshold, as bargains were had all over the board. Outside of the top 10, however, there were four notable players (that were added in more than five leagues) attracting relatively high $15-plus average winning bids: Jhonkensey Noel (CLE) with a $30 average winning bid in 5 leagues; Camilo Doval (SF) with an average winning bid of $24 in 14 leagues; Bobby Miller (LAD) $19 in 8 leagues; and Jake Irvin (WAS) with an average winning bid of $19 in 5 leagues.

NFBC Main Event — Lighter for Leiter

Winning Bids over $100 and $200

I’m also keeping tabs on players attracting the highest individual FAAB bids. In the 23rd run Sunday (see below), there were NO winning bids over $200, and only six above $100. Those $100-199 winning bids went to Matt Waldron (?), Camilo Doval, Craig Kimbrel, David Peterson, Andrew Heaney and Jazz Chisholm Jr.

The Wow Bid of the Week: Knuckling in El Paso

The highest overall bid in FAAB Week 23 was for — um — Matt Waldron of the El Paso Chihuahuas, who was added in just one Main Event leagues. The winners of Waldron’s services apparently were unaware that he was demoted to AAA (or they didn’t care, I suppose). The top Waldron $199 bid was just the 21st-highest Wow bid out of the 23 registered so far and easily beat out the unsuccessful runner-up bid of $4 (there was a runner-up bid?). But hey, look at the bright side — he can’t hurt your ERA this week… 

The Wow Bids of 2024

• 3/24: Nolan Schanuel $200 (20)
• 3/31: Jason Foley $479 (5)
• 4/7: James McArthur $225 (18)
• 4/14 Brandon Nimmo $578 (3)
• 4/21 Wilyer Abreu $350 (13)
• 4/28 Pete Crow-Armstrong $355 (12)
• 5/5 Christian Scott $677 (Highest)
• 5/12 Taj Bradley $444 (7)
• 519 Reed Garrett $420 (8)
• 5/26 Wyatt Langford $248 (17)
• 6/2 Ben Brown $366 (10)
• 6/9 Blake Snell $360 (11)
• 6/16 Ryne Stanek $261 (16)
• 6/23 Michael Harris II $281 (15)
• 6/30 Noelvi Marte $509 (4)
• 7/7 James Wood $462 (6)
• 7/14 Rece Hinds $609 (2)
• 7/21 Jordan Montgomery $189 (22)
• 7/28 Robbie Ray $400 (9)
• 8/4 Devin Williams $320 (14)
• 8/11 Ryan Walker $185 (23)
• 8/18 Zebby Matthews $217 (19)
• 8/25 Matt Waldron $199 (21)

FAAB Summary: Account Depletion

In the 23rd FAAB week, Main Event managers successfully made 1,616 winning bids (about 3% more than last week), but the spending that did occur was spread among many targets. After this week, Main Event managers have now spent approximately $894 of their $1,000 allocation, and although this total amount spent remains lower than each of the last three years at the 23-week mark, it is now almost back to the level spent in the three previous years. This year’s Week 23 had spending of about $14 per team, compared to 2023 ($9), 2022 ($15) and 2021 ($13) levels. Still, considering there are just 4 FAAB runs left, owners still have more money to spend compared to the past. If you consider the total amount remaining, the average Main Event manager can still spend about $26-27 per week over the final four weeks. But remember, each year, about $40-50 per team goes unspent due to managers throwing in the towel at the end of the year, so if you assume $50 is unspent, there would be $56 remaining on the average active teams and that figures out to about $14 per week — that’s a more realistic estimate.

Total Spent: Main Event Through 22 FAAB Periods

• 2024: $894
• 2023: $936
• 2022: $922
• 2021: $916

FAAB Spending Summary 2024

Average Weekly Spending Per Team (21-24)

The Colosseum: The Final Visit of 2024

Sadly, this is our last visit to the Colosseum, for the reason that late-season pickups are designed more for the short-term, and I believe this puts a different spin on whether they have performed well over a three-week evaluation period. As a reminder, each week during the season, I have taken a look at the four widest Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up), a bad idea (thumbs down) or simply a push. I focused on the first three weeks after the pickup, when players can earn their new owners some good stats (as they are generally in the active lineup) or underperform badly, leading to an angry drop soon after they are added to the roster.

Three weeks ago, we had our 20th FAAB run, and we had zero good pickups out of four. The only player to elude the dreaded thumbs down was the top pickup — Jeffrey Springs — but even he just got only a push supported by a good K/BB ratio but the drawbacks of only one win and mediocre ratios (see above). The rest of the crew, however, did much worse. Coby Mayo received just 8 at bats after being added and then was summarily sent down by the Orioles. Miguel Vargas is still playing — great — but hitting .059 — not great. And while Paul Blackburn has seemed passable, he has produced no wins, ugly ratios and now is injured. This seems like a good time to call it a season in the Colosseum.

The deflating week drops the Main Event pickup record for 2024. Out of the 80 player additions I evaluated there were 30 thumbs up (39%), 39 thumbs down (49%) and 11 pushes (14%). This performance was not quite as good as 2023 but about the same as 2022. For the last three years, the good pickup record has been approximately 40%. I think that’s what you can expect from the Main Event waiver wire — even with a lot of study and analysis and looking at the biggest pickups, only about 40% can give you real value in the first three weeks after being added. It’s something to think about in 2025 perhaps.

Colosseum Thumbs Up Record

• 2024 final: 38%
• 2023: 44%
• 2022: 39%
• 2021: 24%

Overall Leaderboard: Jason is No Longer Chasin’ 

Clark (the Shark) Olson was sailing along with a 277.0-point margin last week, but folks, this contest is far from over. In the last seven days Jason Santeiu moved from 277.0 points back to 52.0 in front, and this could be nip-and-tuck right down to the finish. Clark thought they were friends (see him questioning his buddy above) but he’ll have to turn it back on to regain first place. Jason, for his part, has 207 — er — four Main Event entries and is 1st, 3rd, 36th and 529th (I really think he should be somewhat embarrassed by that last team, don’t you?).

Main Event Leaders in 2024

Still right behind our Clark Olson Sandwich (Clark surrounded by two Jasons) is My favorite Martin — Gregg Martin, who has apparently convinced NASA to organize their next mission to Mars after he told them that it was his — um — home base. And the man at the cliff’s edge — Kyle Brinkmann — has zoomed up from 20th two weeks ago to 13th last week and fifth this week despite being inches away from a 1,000-foot drop. 

David — um, Robert — Beckman — fell back to sixth from fifth place after being forced to play left halfback from his usual right wing position, causing him mental anguish that spilled over into his NFBC play. The fresher Eric Drescher is back up to seventh (from 12th), as his second break from focusing on his NFBC teams gave him renewed vigor. Tony Award Winner Tony DiVincenzo, who is now eighth (from 15th), announced that he has been nominated for a Drama Desk Award for best dramatic reaction to a blown save, and the press corps responded by giving him an unprompted standing ovation. Drummer Griffin Benger slowed his roll a bit this week — he had surged from 17th all the way to seventh two weeks ago and edged up further to sixth place last week, but now finds himself in ninth place as he looks for a new gig. 2015 overall champ and former 2024 leader Glenn Schroter stayed solid in 10th this week in an effort to reclaim the top spot (don’t forget Glenn led for eight of 10 weeks earlier in the season).

Brody (the Coyote) John — is now up to 11th (from 18th); Anthony Donisch (who likes a good Danish) fell back to 12th after his strong move from 27th to eighth last week, as he searches for that special apple turnover; the fantasy manager who loves Easter — Todd Hoppe — is in 13th from 11th — and notes that April is his favorite month of the year; department store owner Bill Macey stayed in 14th place after abruptly ending all sales at his flagship store, but says that he is considering a perfume sale to help the city smell better. And Sousaphone inventor Nelson Sousa is in 15th (from 22nd) place as he works on his next musical invention (he’s thinking of calling it the Full Nelson String Instrument (it looks pretty much like a violin to me). 

The Finnish Flash Jordan Rosenblum resides in 16th (with a huge upward move from 27th) and told the Finnish press (that’s just one newspaper) that he had agreed on a strategy for the final five weeks of the season (he is calling it the Helsinki Accords). Not to be outdone, Michael O’Brien (17th) says that he is calling his plan the Dublin Accords (it doesn’t have the same ring to it — sorry Michael). Darren Wasny moves from 24th to 18th and let everyone know that he was in New York recently (I don’t see how that’s relevant though); the furious charge of Tyler (Welcome to the Jungle) Jung has been the stuff of legends — 31st, 18th, 15th, 12th, seventh and then sixth place — but he fell back two weeks ago to ninth and is now 19th. Apparently Tyler’s machete needs to be sharpened as he works his way through the dense forest. And there is a newcomer to the top 31 in 20th place — James Anderson of Rotowire fame — who maintains the “go-to” list of ranked minor league prospects but is also doing well in redraft!

Similarly, Christopher Vaccaro joins the top 31 with an impressive move up to 21st place — Christopher seems to focus on football each year but has done extremely well in baseball — although he did cite Jake Burger as a “good tight end option” earlier this year. The Scout Dustin McComas is 22nd; Knute Rockne aficionado Nicholi Knutson falls from 7th to 23rd and says Notre Dame will not onside kick to start the season; and Matthew Dugan sits comfortably in 24th (just ahead of Daniel DaSilva in 25th).

Other notables include former champ Robert Cramutola is 26th (up from 50th two weeks ago); Chris (UR A Monster) in 28th, son of an NBA legend Rich Barry in 29th; Real Neil Petersen in 30th and Lawman Aaron Lawson in 31st.

But all 31 of these fantasy managers are in the hunt for sure, and in a big 855-team contest like the Main Event, that’s very impressive, right? Nice job, fellows!

Top 31: Main Event 2024

League of Legends

Here are the 57 Main Event leagues with the current top three in the standings as of Monday morning.

Top Three: 2024 Main Event League Leaders

Shout-Outs

There are some notable fantasy managers who have multiple teams placing in the Main Event at this late stage of the season — they certainly deserve a shout-out! Leading the way is (of course) Robert Cramutola with two firsts and two seconds. Wow. Jason Santeiu has three first places, which is also outstanding, even though I personally still don’t like it. Kyle Brinkmann and Clark the Shark Olson have one first and two seconds. Scott Waggener has the across-the-board positions of one first, one second, and one third. Bill Gaffney has two seconds and one third, and Dalton Del Don has one second and two thirds. Those seven fantasy managers alone have eight first places, 10 seconds and four thirds. Yikes.

But see below as there are other fantasy managers with outstanding results. In fact — these 28 stars account for 24 first places (42% of the total) and 64 cashing positions (37%) — leaving not much for the rest of the field!

Notables include:

• Two firsts; two seconds — Robert Cramutola
• Three firsts — Jason Santeiu
• One first; two seconds — Kyle Brinkmann; Clark Olson
• One first; one second; one third — Scott Waggener
• Two seconds; one third — Bill Gaffney
• One second; two thirds — Dalton Del Don
• Two firsts — Christopher Vaccaro; Bradley Libros
• One first; one second — Anthony Palavis; Andrew Sullivan; Chris Uram; Jordan Rosenblum; Alan Mitchell; Matt Leahy
• One first; one third — Andrew Kopicz; John Pausma; Nelson Sousa; Tyler Jung; Michael O’Brien; Matthew Dugan
• Two Seconds — Abdulaziz Madani
• One second; one third — Danny Bronski; Mike Ballschmiede; Joe Green
• Two thirds — David Miller; Bob Catsiroumpas; Matthew Shepherd

Good luck to all the competitors in Week 23.