Whitestone’s Waiver Watch: NFBC Main Event (7/29)

Decisions at the Deadline

MLB Counter = 65.4% of the season complete

Well folks, we’ve reached the MLB trade deadline (and are getting close to two-thirds of the way through the season based on games played), so as we excitedly wait at our computers for trade news, we still had to make FAAB bids and lineup decisions. Some of us have different ways of adjusting to the stress (see below), but hey, if it works, don’t question the methodology, right?

So as we all wait for the deadline to wrap up, I decided to take a one-week look at the tough weekly lineup decisions all Main Event managers have to make. I thought the starting pitcher position represented the clearest set of choices — as these are weekly calls in the NFBC format — and might provide a glimpse into whether managers were making largely the correct start/sit decisions and maybe even whether observers can get a good indicator of the pitcher’s outcome in advance by knowing the percentage of starts by learned fantasy owners. Of course, this is just a one-week look, and a full study would need to include at least an entire season. However, Vlad Sedler at FTN turned down my request for three interns to crunch the numbers, so a one-week view will have to suffice for now. 

In order to conduct this study, I examined this week’s starts for pitchers rostered between 20% and 69% of Main Event squads and broke them down by 10% groupings. I figured the starters in active lineups over 70% were fairly uncontroversial as a start, and that if I looked at hurlers started in less than 20% of leagues, I’d find a lot of random pitchers and perhaps a few injured players. So let’s look first at the 60-69% group, where we should probably anticipate fairly solid results. The scoring in each segment is based upon points earned according to the NFBC Cutline contest, which does a good job in evaluating individual starts (plus 1 per out; minus 2 per earned run allowed; minus 1 for each walk or hit permitted; plus 1 for each K; and plus 6 for each win recorded). But as it turned out, we didn’t really have any good starts out of the six pitchers in the first group, and the whole lot of them only averaged a flat zero — pretty poor results for starters rolled out in two-thirds or so of leagues. Marcus Stroman and Mitchell Parker did the worst, but it was pretty underwhelming.

The seven pitchers in the 50-59% group did significantly better, averaging over 10 points despite a zero from Christian Scott, who was placed on the IL early in the week. Max Scherzer and Landon Knack racked up over 20 points, and José Quintana and Dean Kremer recorded between 15 and 20 points. These more than offset poor outings from MacKenzie Gore and JP Sears. 

So we should be getting poorer results as we work our way down to the more infrequently started pitchers, right? The 40-49% group, though, did even better than either prior group. Yes, Frankie Montas and Carlos Carrasco did not turn in top performances, but three pitchers earned over 20 points (DJ Herz had two starts) ensured that the overall scoring was solid. Unfortunately, Kodai Senga’s start was his last of the 2024 campaign, but he did well for fantasy managers when he was in there. 

OK, now we’re definitely going to see worse results, correct? These pitchers were started only by 30-39% of Main Event managers, so about two-thirds of them decided to bench these pitchers. But the average score was even higher than the 40-49% crowd at 17.4 average points. Kyle Harrison and Tyler Phillips helped a lot with 32-point gems (the best of all these starters this week), but four other pitchers provided strong outings — Jordan Montgomery, Simeon Woods Richardson and even Trevor Rogers. José Butto didn’t factor into the starting ranks but whether managers knew he’d be relegated to the pen or not, he was definitely helpful this week. 

OK, this time the results have to deteriorate, right? These pitchers were started only by 20-29% of Main Event managers, so the great majority decided to bench these hurlers. And yes, finally the average score went down to 3.6 average points. James Paxton didn’t end up pitching as he changed teams, but the rest of the group definitely underwhelmed — no double-digit point totals and Jake Bloss got the same score as Paxton even after pitching four innings. 

So based on this limited sample, I’d say we’re not that great as a group in choosing whether to start our borderline options. Now some of this is definitely due to the fact that these are 15-team leagues and managers are backed into a bit of a corner by the available options. But we’re dealing with a lot of random results by major league pitchers, so even after carefully considering the opponent, venue and perhaps a variety of other factors, it’s very, very tough to get these decisions right. Ah well, this is the life we have chosen, right? Right? Anyone?

NFBC Main Event FAAB 19: Two Arms

In FAAB 19 July 28, spending went up, but mainly because two key arms were available — Robbie Ray and Clayton Kershaw. The top 10 widest acquisitions this week are in the chart below, and many Main Event managers (see below) decided that they wanted one of these two arms. Ray was the headliner, with a whopping average winning bid of $203 over 56 leagues (he was already rostered in one league), but Kershaw was not completely overshadowed, with an average winning bid of $143 also over 56 leagues (also rostered in one league). The No. 3 addition was another Dodger starter — rookie River Ryan — who commanded a significant average winning bid of $39. Tyler Fitzgerald is also worth mentioning, added in 52 leagues at an average of $57. Among the widest 10 pickups, Luis García of the Angels (he garnered a save Sunday) and Lucas Erceg of the Athletics (he might fill in for Mason Miller) were the only others above a $20 average winning bid. Outside of the 10 widest pickups, only two additional players (that were added in more than five leagues) attracted relatively high $30-plus average winning bids. Those honors fell to Triston Casas of the Red Sox (average of $58.75 from 16 bids) and Tyler Phillips of the Phillies (average of $37.12 from 24 bids).

NFBC Main Event — Two Key Arms Were Available

Winning Bids over $100 and $200

I’m also keeping tabs on players attracting the highest individual FAAB bids. In the 19th run July 28 (see below), there were 36 winning bids over $200 — 28 for Robbie Ray and 8 for Clayton Kershaw. In addition, there were 75 winning bids between $100-199, 60 of which were for those same two pitchers. The lowest winning bid for Robbie Ray was $67 (one of just two that won his services at under $100), and for Clayton Kershaw $44 (Kershaw was won 14 times under $100).

The Wow Bid of the Week: Ray Day

The highest overall bid in FAAB Week 19 was for — no surprise — Robbie Ray of the Giants, who was added in 56 Main Event leagues, and is now 100% rostered. Robbie’s new managers — especially the ones bidding the big bucks — apparently were responding to an emergency call (see below) and seem to have pulled out of their dive. The top Ray $400 bid was the ninth-highest Wow bid out of the 19 registered so far, pretty impressive considering that the dollars available are considerably lower in late July. In any case, the $400 bid easily beat out the unsuccessful runner-up bid of $163.

The Wow Bids of 2024

• 3/24: Nolan Schanuel $200 (18)
• 3/31: Jason Foley $479 (5)
• 4/7: James McArthur $225 (17)
• 4/14 Brandon Nimmo $578 (3)
• 4/21 Wilyer Abreu $350 (13)
• 4/28 Pete Crow-Armstrong $355 (12)
• 5/5 Christian Scott $677 (Highest)
• 5/12 Taj Bradley $444 (7)
• 519 Reed Garrett $420 (8)
• 5/26 Wyatt Langford $248 (16)
• 6/2 Ben Brown $366 (10)
• 6/9 Blake Snell $360 (11)
• 6/16 Ryne Stanek $261 (15)
• 6/23 Michael Harris II $281 (14)
• 6/30 Noelvi Marte $509 (4)
• 7/7 James Wood $462 (6)
• 7/14 Rece Hinds $609 (2)
• 7/21 Jordan Montgomery $189 (19)
• 7/28 Robbie Ray $400 (9)

FAAB Summary: Time to Spend

In the 19th FAAB week, Main Event managers successfully made 1,739 winning bids (about 39% more than last week), and the spending was generally driven by the 112 winning bids for Robbie Ray and Clayton Kershaw. After this week, Main Event managers have now spent approximately $801 of their $1,000 allocation, which remains lower than each of the last three years at the 19-week mark (but it caught up a bit to the three previous years, as especially in 2023 and 2022 the money was almost gone at this point of the season). This year’s Week 19 had spending of about $49 per team, well above 2023 ($12) and 2022 ($23) but somewhat comparable to 2021 ($44). Still, considering there are just 8 FAAB runs left, owners still have a lot of money to spend compared to the past (the average Main Event manager can still spend about $25 per week over the final 8 weeks).

Total Spent: Main Event Through 18 FAAB Periods

• 2024: $801
• 2023: $889
• 2022: $846
• 2021: $852

FAAB Spending Summary 2024

Average Weekly Spending Per Team (21-24):

The Colosseum

Each week during the season, I’ll take a look at the four widest Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up), a bad idea (thumbs down) or simply a push. We’re focusing on the first three weeks after the pickup, when players can earn their new owners some good stats (as they are generally in the active lineup) or underperform badly, leading to an angry drop soon after they are added to the roster.

Three weeks ago, we had our 16th FAAB run, and we had one good pickup out of four. Brooks Lee has shown signs of life, but really hasn’t put together enough stats in the first three weeks to mark him as a good pickup. Perhaps by the end of the season he will be there. Lenyn Sosa was hot, got added, and then turned cold and was sent down to the minors. James Outman homered Sunday, but that’s all he’s done in three weeks. Our lone winner is Matt Wallner — who was supposed to be a platoon bat but who has earned regular playing time for the Twins. At .351 with 4 homers in three weeks, he gets a thumbs up for sure. 

The bad week keeps the Main Event pickup record for 2024 to below 2023 and 2022 — at least for the time being, with 24 thumbs up (38%), 32 thumbs down and 8 pushes. At least this is still better than the 2021 good pickups mark of 24%, right?

Colosseum Thumbs Up Record

• 2024 thus far: 38%
• 2023: 44%
• 2022: 39%
• 2021: 24%

2024 Colosseum Thumbs Up Players

Overall Leaderboard: Can He Be Stopped? 

Clark (the Shark) Olson has now been the leader of the Main Event for three consecutive weeks, so I have provided a view of the other Main Event managers trying to (unsuccessfully) deal with him above. Clark has apparently developed a taste for boats, so now I’d recommend that everyone do their FAAB work from shore going forward. Clark now has his biggest lead of the season — 222 points — and in fact the only greater margin was held by Glenn Schroter way back on May 5 (255.5 points).

Main Event Leaders in 2024

Right behind our unfriendly shark in second and third place is the Amazin’ Jason Santeiu. Last week he was second, fourth and 12th overall, but now he is second, third and 44th. What’s the matter Jason, having a little trouble? (I guess I told him!) Jason thinks that the fact that one of his trio of teams has fallen out of the top 31 will end the investigation into unfair competitive practices, but I’m here to tell you that this process is continuing. My lawyers are preparing motions to throw out his infield from the competition, so I’ll report on that next week. David — um — Robert Beckman — is now in fourth place after he was loaned to the NFBC from Manchester United, and he skipped practice again, causing him to drop down from third. The top five is rounded out by the fresher Eric Drescher, who famously took a short respite from the competition and is still huddled in his newly constructed refrigerated unit. 

Alan Mitchell — who texted me that he will soon be rich — has apparently figured something out, because he jumped up to sixth overall from 14th. My favorite Martin — Gregg Martin, is holding patiently in seventh overall, and the impressive Knute Rockne aficionado Nicholi Knutson resides in eighth (up from 10th). In ninth place — amazingly — is The Kid Ben Tidd — who made his 2024 overall leaderboard debut last week in 19th place and is now ninth overall! Ben has all the momentum in the world, so I asked him about this, and he replied wisely “Momentum is limited to today’s starting pitchers.” Good point, Ben, good point. Finishing out the top ten is Real Neil Petersen who fell back slightly from ninth place, but he says he’s still “Keeping it real” so I think that means he’s got a solid grip on the situation.

In 11th place is 2015 overall champ and former 2024 leader Glenn Schroter, who has moved back into definite contention from 23rd last week, but Tyler (Welcome to the Jungle) is also continuing his charge — two weeks ago he moved up to 18th from 31st, last week he surged to 15th, and now he’s in 12th place! The Liberator, Bradley Libros, is in 13th (still claiming he will liberate the masses of downtrodden Main Event managers, but he has slipped back from 9th two weeks ago and 11th last week so maybe he’s spending too much time on his revolution? In 14th place (and 18th!) is Chris (UR A Monster) — who last week had only a 13th place team but apparently didn’t think that was enough. And drummer Griffin Benger is still banging away — up to 15th from 21st last week.

Other notables include he very tough guy to get rid of, Dave Rhydderch, in 19th; Jackson The Price is Right in 21st; Nelson Sousa — a former overall leader back on the board with two teams (22nd and 28th); the one true King (Brandon King) in 24th place overall; followed by “it’s all right” Eric Albright in 25th; the man at the cliff’s edge (Kyle Brinkmann) in 26th; a fantasy manager who loves Easter — Todd Hoppe — in 27th; movie producer Adam Warner of Warner Brothers in 29th; and everyone’s favorite winery king, Chris Boudreaux, in 31st. 

But all 31 of these fantasy managers are in the hunt for sure, and in a big 855-team contest like the Main Event, that’s very impressive, right? And remember, Jason Santeiu’s teams are under investigation, so there could be further changes.

Top 31: Main Event 2024

League of Legends

Here are the 57 Main Event leagues with the current top three in the standings on the morning of July 29th!

Top Three: 2024 Main Event League Leaders

Shout-Outs

The 28 players listed below account for 22 of the 57 first-place positions (39%) and 63 of the 171 total cashing positions (37%). So far, the most outstanding performance across the Main Events belongs to Robert Cramutola with three first-place positions plus one second! The next five are not too shabby either: Jason Santeiu has three firsts, Kyle Brinkmann and Dalton Del Don have two firsts and one second; and Tyler Jung and Michael O’Brien both have the across-the-board positions of one first, one second and one third. Congratulations! But see below, as there are several other fantasy managers doing terrific work!

Notables include:

• Three first, one second — Robert Cramutola
• Three first — Jason Santeiu
• One first, two seconds — Kyle Brinkmann, Dalton Del Don
• One first, one second, one third — Michael O’Brien, Tyler Jung
• Two firsts — Bradley Libros, Anthony Palavis, Chris Uram
• One first; one second – Andrew Kopicz, Nelson Sousa
• One first; one third – Alan Mitchell, Clark Olson, Richard DiMondo, Matt Leahy
• Two seconds — Bill Gaffney, Dave Rhydderch, Dominic Rello
• One second, one third — Leonard Ringle, Abdulaziz Madani, Christopher Vaccaro, Scott Waggener, James Tomony
• Two thirds — Rusty Clark, Philippe Dussault, Matt Modica, Michael Mager, John Pausma

Good luck to all the competitors in Week 20.