Whitestone’s Waiver Watch: NFBC Main Event (7/15)

The $400 Club

MLB Counter = 59.6% of the season complete

Well folks, we’ve reached the All-Star break (and are almost 60% through the season based on games played), so I decided to look at the biggest, baddest winning bids in FAAB in this 855-team contest. As we all know, everyone gets $1,000 of FAAB for the full season, but all managers use that allocation in very different ways. Most fantasy managers in the Main Event, however, design their bidding somewhat conservatively, because FAAB runs for 27 weeks and must be spent carefully even if a few big bids are included. So it’s not surprising that most winning bids are under $100 of FAAB for a single player. However, there are times when a Main Event manager feels the need to go big or go home. A spend of $400 of FAAB is a sizable commitment to a particular player — especially early in the season — as it leaves you with far less funding to adjust to other future problems that might develop on a fantasy squad. The realization might hit a little later as you can see below…

In 17 weeks, there have been 28,288 winning FAAB bids in the Main Event so far this season, and only 14 — that’s right 14 (that’s only 0.05% of the total) — have been $400 or more. Those 14 bids (including two this week) are listed below along with the players that drew these bids and the current place of the Main Event team that went to the mat for the coveted player. Obviously, the league position of the owners making these 14 winning bids doesn’t prove that it was a good or bad move, but I nevertheless submit to you that just one of these 14 teams is in a cashing position (top three) in its league. Maybe these fantasy managers went a bit too heavy with their bid? You’ll have to decide for yourself…

NFBC Main Event FAAB No. 17: Moderation is the Key

In FAAB 17 July 14, spending stayed relatively moderate. The 10 widest acquisitions this week are in the chart below, and many Main Event managers decided that hindsight would show that (see below) Rece Hinds (who was added in all 57 leagues) would be the player best equipped — with his 20/20 vision — to lead them to the league championship. They certainly can’t complain about his 5 homers in his first 22 MLB at bats, which — let’s see — would be a 114-homer pace for a 500 at bat season. I carefully analyzed this performance to date and have concluded that Mr. Hinds has put together a solid start, and 57 Main Event fantasy managers apparently agreed with me. For those managers who needed pitching, Yilber Diaz (nicknamed Yil the Thrill) of the Diamondbacks was apparently the best FAAB option, picked up in 50 leagues. Then Lawrence “3 Home Run” Butler was added in 47 leagues despite the fact that Rece Hinds sneers at Butler’s lack of power (only 9 homers in 175 at bats). Those three players were followed by Ángel Martínez of the Guardians (who is eligible at SS but Cleveland is deploying him at 3B and OF), in the hopes that he will continue to get playing time. Among the widest 10 pickups, Hinds’ average winning bid of about $139 FAR outpaced the others, as only Rece’s Pieces and Lawrence Butler ($57) exceeded a winning average bid of $20. Outside of the ten widest pickups, only one additional player (that was added in more than five leagues) attracted relatively high $30-plus average winning bids. That honor fell to Jordan Montgomery (average of $34.17 from six bids).

NFBC Main Event — Most Added this Week: Hindsight is 20/20

Winning Bids over $100 and $200

I’m also keeping tabs on players attracting the highest individual FAAB bids. In the 17th run July 14 (see below), there were 11 winning bids over $200, decidedly lower than the last two weeks. In addition, there were 28 winning bids between $100 and $199. This week, the 11 winning bids over $200 were all for the aforementioned Rece Hinds, who attracted one bid over $600; one over $500; three $300-399 and six between $200 and $299. The lowest winning bid for Rece? Why it was made by none other than the world-famous FAABER, Vlad (@rotogut) Sedler of FTN Fantasy fame. He won the services of Mr. Hinds with a paltry $27 bid over a runner-up bid of $26. How does he do it, folks? No one seems to know. Rece Hinds also represented 18 of the 28 $100-199 bids as well this week, with six of the 28 going to Lawrence (not on a 114-homer pace) Butler.

The Wow Bid of the Week: Hindsight Domination

The highest overall bid in FAAB Week 17 was – surprise – for Rece Hinds of the Reds, who was unrostered in Main Event leagues, and is now (of course) 100% rostered. The eye-popping top $609 bid was the second-highest Wow bid out of the 17 registered so far in 2024, which easily beat out the unsuccessful runner-up bid of — wait for it — $55.

The Wow Bids of 2024

• 3/24: Nolan Schanuel $200 (17)
• 3/31: Jason Foley $479 (5)
• 4/7: James McArthur $225 (16)
• 4/14 Brandon Nimmo $578 (3)
• 4/21 Wilyer Abreu $350 (12)
• 4/28 Pete Crow-Armstrong $355 (11)
• 5/5 Christian Scott $677 (Highest)
• 5/12 Taj Bradley $444 (7)
• 519 Reed Garrett $420 (8)
• 5/26 Wyatt Langford $248 (15)
• 6/2 Ben Brown $366 (9)
• 6/9 Blake Snell $360 (10)
• 6/16 Ryne Stanek $261 (14)
• 6/23 Michael Harris $281 (13)
• 6/30 Noelvi Marte $509 (4)
• 7/7 James Wood $462 (6)
• 7/14 Rece Hinds $609 (2)

FAAB Summary: Break Time

In the 17th FAAB week, Main Event managers successfully made 1,452 winning bids (about 12% less than last week) but the strong Rece Hinds bids supported the overall spending levels. After this week, Main Event owners have now spent approximately $737 of their $1,000 allocation, which remains lower than each of the last three years at the 17-week mark (the three previous years, as you can see below, were at least $40 higher). This year’s Week 17 had spending of about $27 per team, more than the previous three years, but not enough to really catch up to the spending levels of 2021-24 (the three previous years were within $11-22 at this point of the season). So considering there are just 10 FAAB runs left, managers still have more money to spend than in the past (the average Main Event manager can still spend about $26 per week over the final 10 weeks).

Total Spent: Main Event Through 16 FAAB Periods

• 2024: $737
• 2023: $855
• 2022: $797
• 2021: $780

FAAB Spending Summary 2024

Average Weekly Spending Per Team (21-24)

The Colosseum

Each week during the season, I’ll take a look at the four widest Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up), a bad idea (thumbs down) or simply a push. We’re focusing on the first three weeks after the pickup, when players can earn their new owners some good stats (as they are generally in the active lineup) or underperform badly, leading to an angry drop soon after they are added to the roster.

Three weeks ago, we had our 14th FAAB run, and we had one very nice pickup. Ben Rice might have produced a low batting average, but 6 homers and 18 RBIs makes this a (ahem) home run addition. There were also two easy thumbs down pickups, Tyler Black (who didn’t play — this was unfortunately his second losing attempt in the Colosseum) and Dominic Canzone, who didn’t hit and got hurt. The toughest grade was Aroldis Chapman. He somewhat provided what a fantasy manager needed, with one win and two saves. But in a three-week period when he was the PIT closer, more wins and saves were anticipated. Also Chapman’s ERA and WHIP were pretty underwhelming. As a result, the emperor gave Aroldis a push and asked him to leave the Colosseum before he changed his mind. That’s one thumbs up, two thumbs down and a push for this week.

The one thumbs up week keeps the Main Event pickup record for 2024 at a good level, with 23 thumbs up (41%), 25 thumbs down and 8 pushes, and the thumbs up percentage is about equal to 2023 (44%). This is about the same neighborhood as the 2022 good pickups mark of 39% but better than 2021, which was 24%.

Colosseum Thumbs Up Record

• 2024 thus far: 41%
• 2023: 44%
• 2022: 39%
• 2021: 24%

2024 Colosseum Thumbs Up Players

Overall Leaderboard: Shark Week Redux

For seven of nine weeks, the 2015 Main Event Overall Champion Glenn Schroter held a stranglehold on the top spot in the standings. But he’s fallen off the pace a bit, and Clark the Shark is back in front. He already led after 11 weeks June 10 and has been circling the field waiting for a second opportunity. His advantage? The other Main Event managers don’t seem to realize that it just may not be safe to go in the water…

Main Event Leaders in 2024

David — um, Robert — Beckman — is now in second place after he was loaned to the NFBC from Manchester United. Robert dropped from first place last week, but seems undeterred by the fact that he is no longer the leader — stating that he remains confident because he is ahead on corner kicks. The rest of the chase pack is led by the fresher Eric Drescher, who famously took a short respite from the competition and now is holding in third place — as he told me — in a refrigerated unit to stay completely crisp and fresh. Then there’s the Amazin’ Jason Santeiu, who not only is in fourth place this week, but he also has the seventh- and 21^st-ranked overall teams. Surprisingly, that trio of teams is now under investigation by the NFBC because an unnamed individual that writes about the Main Event for FTN Fantasy has claimed that there are antitrust unfair competitive practices by Mr. Santeiu, so stay tuned on that legal matter. Rounding out the top five is My Favorite Martin, Gregg Martin, who zoomed up from 16th overall. Nice work Gregg!

Real Neil Petersen sits in sixth place (up from seventh), the impressive Knute Rockne aficionado Nicholi Knutson resides in eighth, The Liberator, Bradley Libros, is in ninth (still claiming he will liberate the masses of downtrodden Main Event owners) and the one true King (Brandon King) sits regally in 10th place overall. 

Chris (UR A Monster) is 11th, Alan Mitchell is 12th, and the very tough guy to get rid of, Dave Rhydderch, is in 13th place, while the man at the cliff’s edge (Kyle Brinkmann) is looking good (even if he’s teetering a bit) in 14th. Who is in 15th place you ask? Why, it’s our former leader Glenn Schroter. Glenn insists he is not out of the hunt, but instead says that he just needs time on the lake during the All-Star Break to recharge. After all, he isn’t called Schroter the Boater for no reason at all, right? 

Everyone’s favorite winery king, Chris Boudreaux, is 16th, Adam (of Warner Brothers fame) is nicely positioned in 17th (despite running a large movie company!), and Tyler (Welcome to the Jungle) has charged up to 18th from 31st. In addition, let’s not forget about drummer Griffin Benger in 19th or Jackson The Price is Right is 20th.

A few other notables in the top 31 (the top 31 are paid an overall prize at the end of the season – see below table) – Dirt Road Traveler Dustin Wagner is 25th; Department Store owner Bill Macey is 26th; and the magnanimous Brian Magnani is 28th. But all 31 of these fantasy managers are in the hunt for sure, and in a big 855-team contest like the Main Event, that’s all you can ask at the All-Star Break, right? We’re almost three-fifths of the way through the season (59.6%), but there’s still time to make a move before October.

Top 31: Main Event 2024

League of Legends

Here are the 57 Main Event leagues with the current top three in the standings at the All-Star Break — the morning of July 15!

Top Three: 2024 Main Event League Leaders

Shout-Outs

The 25 players listed below account for 21 of the 57 first-place positions (37%) and 58 of the 171 total cashing positions (34%). So far, the most outstanding performance across the Main Events belongs to Robert Cramutola with three first-place positions plus one third! The next six are not too shabby either: Jason Santeiu has three firsts, Scott Waggener has two firsts and one second; Dominic Rello has one first and two seconds; Kyle Brinkmann has the across-the-board positions of one first, one second and one third; Tyler Jung has two seconds and a third; and Bill Gaffney is situated beautifully with one second and two thirds. Congratulations! But see below, as there are several other fantasy managers doing terrific work!

Notables include:

• Three first, one third — Robert Cramutola
• Three first — Jason Santeiu
• Two first, one second — Scott Waggener
• One first, two seconds — Dominic Rello
• One first, one second, one third — Kyle Brinkmann
• Two seconds, one third — Tyler Jung
• One second, two thirds — Bill Gaffney
• Two firsts — Bradley Libros
• One first; one second – Anthony Palavis, Chris Uram, Michael O’Brien, Nelson Sousa
• One first; one third – Gregg Martin, Clark Olson, Abdulaziz Madani, Alan Mitchell, Tony DiVincenzo
• Two seconds — David Miller
• One second, one third — Mike Ballschmiede, Philippe Dussault, Robert DiPietro, James Tomony, Leonard Ringle
• Two thirds — Jordan Rosenblum, Rusty Clark

Good luck to all the competitors in Week 18.