Whitestone’s Waiver Watch: NFBC Main Event (6/26)

Welcome to my weekly Main Event recap article. Each week, I’ll dig into the top free agents added in this premiere fantasy baseball contest, letting you know who was added in the most leagues, how much money was spent and more. In addition, we’ll revisit the top pickups from three weeks ago and even scan the Main Event overall standings to see who’s at the top. And this week we are marking the fact that we’re halfway through the season (or pretty close at 48%). Maybe not a cause for celebration, as Homer Simpson seems to think, but it’s still noteworthy nevertheless.

MLB Counter: 48.0% of the season complete

Updated MLB Stats

I am planning to alternate this overall MLB pitching and hitting stats with the 80% Main Event target update in this section moving forward, since there is less movement in the numbers now. So next week we will check in on those 80% levels for the year to date.

But below I’ve also updated the runs scored, home runs and batting average for this year (through Sunday), and they are shown below compared to the 2017-2022 period. Over the past couple of weeks, runs per game have edged up just a little to 4.55 (from 4.54) but home runs and batting average have been steady. Stolen bases also are up to 0.73 per game from 0.72, and the success rate is holding at 80%. This is still a remarkable shift from the 0.51 stolen bases per game from just a season ago. In the second chart below, the pitching stats show that strikeouts have trended up to 8.59 (from 8.56 two weeks back), which of course is a big rebound from the 8.40 of last year. However, an overlooked stat has been the unintentional walks per game — now at 3.28 from 3.06 last season. Perhaps this is an outgrowth of the pitch clock, but it means that the leaguewide K:BB ratio is worse than 2022 despite more strikeouts.

Most Common FAAB Pickups in the Main Event: Shooter McGavin

The 10 widest acquisitions are in the chart below, and because Main Event owners are contractually obligated to have a rookie starting pitcher as the top acquisition, we have Gavin Williams of Cleveland as the leader this week. Shooter was added in all 53 leagues; Pittsburgh catching prospect Henry Davis was not far behind. Williams was still the leader, with a high of $228, while Davis had a high bid of $137. Then we did have a veteran presence beyond that, as Joey Votto returned with a bang and Main Event managers added him in 47 leagues. Next was Alek Thomas, who just might get regular playing time in Phoenix, while the hope of stolen bases vaulted speedster David Hamilton of the Red Sox into fifth overall as he was picked up in 43 leagues.

The Century Club

In the 14th FAAB run (see below), there were four $200-plus successful bids as they drift away from our consciousness (up from zero, though) — and 42 over $100 (with 32 of these 42 for Williams and five for Davis). As you can see below, we’ve had 528 total winning bids over $200 (which may be about the final total) and 1,250 total $100-plus winning bids in the first thirteen weeks of FAAB. It’s interesting to think that of the 795 Main Event managers, two-thirds on average have had one $200-plus winning bid and each manager on average has had 1-2 $100-199 winning bids. Some managers have gone more “stars and scrubs” and have more than one $200 player, while others haven’t gone above $200 at all and are content with $100 and below.

The Wow Bid of the Week

So, who attracted the highest single bid of the week? Of course, it is no surprise that the highest winning bid was for Gavin Williams — but this week is our first “wow” bid of the with an exact tie. The top winning bid was $228 by two separate managers, which beat the $145 and $138 runner-up amounts. The magical $228 worked!

• 3/26: Darick Hall $221
• 4/2: Dany Jiménez $363
• 4/9 Oscar Colás $372
• 4/16 Taj Bradley $557
• 4/23 José Alvarado $399
• 4/30 Tanner Bibee $504
• 5/7 Bryce Miller $468
• 5/14 Eury Pérez $415
• 5/21 Bobby Miller $329
• 5/28 Bobby Miller $412
• 6/4 Royce Lewis $429
• 6/11 Elly De La Cruz $650
• 6/18 Emmet Sheehan $178
• 6/25 Gavin Williams $228 (2)

FAAB Summary

In the first 14 FAAB weeks, Main Event managers have had 21,896 winning bids (so each Main Event team has won 27.5 bids on average YTD — roughly two per week) and spent about $806 of their $1,000 allocation. Comparing that to the last two years at the 14-week mark, that’s more than the $718 spent in 2022 and the $710 spent two years ago. You can see in the chart below (the average amount spent per team column) that there was a huge drop in weekly spending two weeks ago — from $65 spent per team to $28, and this week it held steady at that $28 level. But with 27 FAAB periods and $806 spent in 14 weeks, owners who have an average amount left are going to have to economize even further by averaging $14.92 per week for all their winning bids over the final 14 weeks of the campaign. It is time for some really strong $5-$10 bids.

The Colosseum

Each week during the season, I take a look at the four widest Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up), a bad idea (thumbs down) or simply a push. In the chart below, you can see the results from the 10th FAAB period. Royce Lewis of Minnesota leads us off and he’s been very good — a .393 batting average with 2 homers, 1 steal and good counting stats — he gets a thumbs up from the emperor of course. Then we have a tough one — Justin Lawrence of the Rockies. He has provided two saves, and the ERA is nice — but look at the K:BB and WHIP. I’m not impressed by that — and it might cause him to lose the gig eventually. He gets a PUSH for now. Reese Olson of the Tigers has been good — he has the 1 win and a nice K:BB ratio and WHIP. His ERA is high, but since I prefer WHIP as an indicator to ERA, I’ll award him with a thumbs up. Finally, Gary Sánchez is another tough case. He has provided power — 5 homers and 14 RBIs. But the .183 batting average is ominous — will he still get regular playing time if he hits that low? I think this is a PUSH even though I understand many owners are happy with a power surge from the catcher position.

This now gives us 19 thumbs up for the season thus far (43%), 17 down (39%) and 8 pushes (18%). That’s slightly better than 2022, which registered a 39% thumbs up on these weekly pickups, and well ahead of 2021 (24%). 

Overall Leaderboard: The Crusade for Christenson

The Crusades were a series of religious wars initiated, supported, and sometimes directed by the Christian Latin Church in the medieval period. The best known of these military expeditions are those to the Holy Land in the period between 1095 and 1291 that were intended to conquer Jerusalem and its surrounding area from Muslim rule. Although dozens of military campaigns were organized, crusading declined rapidly after the 15th century. Apparently that news has not reached Eric Christenson, though, as he ascended to the top spot in his own Main Event Crusade (you can see him pictured below working on his FAAB this week). Eric has been steady and solid all season and assures us all that this crusade will end in victory.

In the overall top 30 standing below, we find Steve Maier now in second place (from ninth the previous week), and Brandon King now in third from second last week. Michael Mager is lurking in fourth (and he also has the eighth-place overall team), and the great Andrew Geller moves to fifth from sixth. Clark Olson is now sixth and 17th — and Jeff Tudor is solidly in contention in seventh overall. Ari Benjamin is now ninth (moving up from 15th), and John Pausma — that’s MR. JOHN PAUSMA — is 10th and 24th.

Speaking of guys to watch out for, Bob Catsiroumpas is 11^th, Mark Srebro 12^th, Dalton Del Don 13^th, Gregg Martin 14^th and Michael Kurland 15th — all of these guys are definitely in the hunt for the title. 

There’s lots of other strong contenders in the top-30 list — just take a look at the standings below — and with more than half of the season left, anything can happen.

This week I am also showing below the scoring breakdown of the top five overall players. As you can see, Eric Christenson’s weakest category is batting average at 605 points out of 795 (that’s not too bad), and he has seven categories above 700. Steve Maier has five above 700 but does have a weakness in steals that he needs to address. Brandon King has the top overall team in both home runs and RBI and is tied for the top spot in runs scored — wow. If he gets some steals and saves, watch out! Michael Mager has six above 700 and is really focused on steals, I am sure. Finally, Andrew Geller has five over 700 and is looking to improve in batting average and steals moving forward.

Champions Update

I like to keep tabs on our recent Overall Champions, because they have proven their mettle over long, difficult campaigns and therefore must be threats to do so again.

Philippe Dussault: Philippe is back, and I take full credit for this. After employing my motivational strategy in this article, Phil first shot up to 201st from 275th place (out of 795 total) four weeks ago, three weeks ago to 187th! Two weeks ago? 160th overall. Last week? 134th. And now? He is 91st. Wow, I am good!

Robert Cramutola: Bob bounced back — as he has a history of doing. Two weeks ago he fell from 56th to 206th. But then he rose to 130th, before fading to 171st this week. Bob remains calm despite the fact that angry fans are surrounding him in his car dealership, calling for him to replace the general manager.

League of Legends

Shout-Outs

John Pausma is still great — don’t get me wrong. But a few weeks ago he was first in all five of his Main Event leagues and now he leads in two while placing second in three others. For mere mortals that would be outstanding. But I can tell you that John is none too happy about this and is vowing to turn his season around (by the way, John, many people would be ecstatic about your position). 

Nelson Sousa also isn’t complying with my categorization of him as a fantasy football expert. He’s in a cashing position in four Main Event leagues, and says he just needs a good solid wide receiver and he will move up even further. Ned Donohue continues to lead in three Main Events — yawn — as usual. Mike Mager, Clark Olson, Danny Bronski, David Miller and the glorious tag team of Brian Slack and Nickolaus Sackett are also in the top three in three leagues. Those eight fantasy players have 12 first-place positions, nine second-place and six third-place — wow. Excellent job gentlemen!

Sixteen other players are in two cashing spots, with Philippe Dussault back in a cashing spot in the two leagues he is in. In fact, these 21 Main Event fantasy managers below have a combined 22 first-place positions (42%) and 53 cashing spots (33% of the 159 total available). There’s a long way to go of course, but right now the story of the season in the Main Event is Pausma, Sousa, Donohue, Mager, Olson, Bronski and Miller — but remember — the Crusades are just beginning! So that $194 average FAAB remaining has to last all the way to the Middle East (or at least until September).

Good luck during Week 15.