Whitestone’s Waiver Watch: NFBC Main Event (6/24)

How Did They Do It?

MLB Counter = 48.0% of the season complete

Since we are very close to the halfway point of the season (48%), it seems like a good time to try to figure out how the top Main Event teams set a strong base for their squad so they could be in the top five of this 855-team contest. The way I figure it, there are 850 other teams that would like to know just what they didn’t do that these elite entries figured out.

Below you can see the first 12 draft picks of the top five teams in the Main Event as of Monday morning. There aren’t too many misses among the 60 picks shown. Interestingly, not one of these five fantasy managers had the same beginning draft slot or the same first-round player (although Shohei Ohtani was almost a first-round pick twice). In fact, there were only five repeat selections at all — Shohei Ohtani (2); Tyler Glasnow (2); Gunnar Henderson (2); Paul Goldschmidt (2); Marcell Ozuna (2). This seems like a low number to me.

All five of these participants drafted either 3-4 starting pitchers in the first 12 rounds and 1-2 closers. Everyone picked up one catcher (Clark Olson drafted two) in the first 12 rounds, but there wasn’t a big lean positionally for the hitters. Schroter and Knutson went for middle infield (please note I am counting Gunnar Henderson and Mookie Betts as middle infielders for this exercise and Cody Bellinger as a corner infielder) while 4 out of 5 of our leaders took a utility bat (Ohtani or Ozuna). But there’s a lot of divergence obviously — lots of ways to get to the top (at least at the halfway point). Which starting base do you like the best?

How the Main Event Leaders Drafted the First 12 Rounds:

NFBC Main Event FAAB #14

In FAAB No. 14 Sunday, spending was still fairly muted. The top-10 widest acquisitions this week are in the chart below, and the man with a famous uncle, Ben Rice (NYY), was the widest pickup (added in all 57 leagues). Interim closer Aroldis Chapman (PIT), who will take over for injured David Bednar, was next, picked up in 55 leagues. Then a pair of players were added in 42 leagues — third baseman Tyler Black (MIL), who is back in the majors, and outfielder Dominic Canzone (SEA), who faces a basket full of RHP this week. Among the widest 10 pickups, Chapman held the highest average winning bid at about $55. Spencer Turnbull (PHI) came next at approximately $43, and Rice was about $41. Black and Joey Loperfido (HOU) were in the $20-29 range, and everyone else was below $20. Only four additional players (outside the widest adds) were picked up in more than five leagues and attracted relatively high $30-plus average winning bids. They were Tobias Myers (average of $44 from 5 bids), Tyler Soderstrom (average of $41 from 6 bids), José Miranda (average $40 from 7 bids) and James Paxton (average $32 from 7).

NFBC Main Event — Most Added this Week: Is This Rice Converted?

Winning Bids over $100 and $200

I’m also keeping tabs on players attracting the highest individual FAAB bids. In the 14th run June 23 (see below), there were just four $200-plus successful bids, and only seven winning bids between $100 and 199. That means in the last five FAAB runs there has been only one week with more than 11 triple digit bids (June 2). This week the four winning bids over $200 were for Michael Harris ($281), Cedric Mullins ($255 and $231) and Aroldis Chapman ($209). Out of the winning bids over $100, we had three for Ben Rice, two for J.T. Realmuto and one each for Aroldis Chapman and Tyler Soderstrom.

The Wow Bid of the Week: Michael (Ferris) Harris’ Day Off

The highest overall bid in FAAB Week 14 was for Michael Harris of the Braves, who is taking some time off — just like Ferris Bueller — below. In fact, you can see that Michael draws inspiration for taking time off below from his hero (pictured below). Nevertheless, 

Harris was only unrostered in one Main Event league, and this situation sparked a $281 bid to win his services. It was the 10th-highest Wow bid out of the 14 registered so far in 2024, which easily beat out the unsuccessful runner-up bid of $188.

The Wow Bids of 2024:

• 3/24: Nolan Schanuel $200 (No. 14)
• 3/31: Jason Foley $479 (No. 3)
• 4/7: James McArthur $225 (No. 13)
• 4/14 Brandon Nimmo $578 (No. 2)
• 4/21 Wilyer Abreu $350 (No. 9)
• 4/28 Pete Crow-Armstrong $355 (No. 8)
• 5/5 Christian Scott $677 (Highest)
• 5/12 Taj Bradley $444 (No. 4)
• 519 Reed Garrett $420 (No. 5)
• 5/26 Wyatt Langford $248 (No. 12)
• 6/2 Ben Brown $366 (No. 6)
• 6/9 Blake Snell $360 (No. 7)
• 6/16 Ryne Stanek $261 (No. 11)
• 6/23 Michael Harris $281 (No. 10)

FAAB Summary: Actively Spending Small Amounts

In the 14th FAAB week, Main Event managers successfully made 1,864 winning bids (about 12% more than last week) so there is activity. However, they now have spent only about $627 of their $1,000 allocation. This remains significantly lower than the last three years at the 14-week mark – as all three previous years (see below) showed well over $700 spent. However, this year’s Week 14 showed spending of about $33 per team, in the same area as the previous three years (all three previous years were within $28-$40 spent in Week 14). So Main Event managers just skipped the surge in spending that we usually get between Weeks 3 and 8 — and this level of spending in Week 14 is fairly normal. So surprisingly, even with more FAAB dollars at their disposal, Main Event owners have not increased their per week spending between Weeks 9 and 14 to make up for the reduced early spending. With an average of $373 of FAAB left per team for the last 13 weeks, Main Event owners are still able to aggressively bid (still about $29 left to spend per week). But with all this FAAB still in circulation, there’s got to be a couple of spike weeks later in the season. Right? Who’s with me?

Total Spent: Main Event Through 14 FAAB Periods

• 2024: $627
• 2023: $806
• 2022: $718
• 2021: $710

FAAB Spending Summary 2024

Average Weekly Spending Per Team (21-24)

The Colosseum

Each week during the season, I’ll take a look at the four widest Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up), a bad idea (thumbs down) or simply a push. We’re focusing on the first three weeks after the pickup, when players can earn their new owners some good stats (as they are generally in the active lineup) or underperform badly, leading to an angry drop soon after they are added to the roster.

Three weeks ago, we had our 11th FAAB run, and we had two fairly good pickups. Spencer Schwellenbach (see above) perhaps didn’t provide stats that wowed you, but he’s still in the rotation (unlike other Atlanta starters) and has a passable ERA/WHIP plus one win. In a 15-teamer, that’s just fine. David Peterson perhaps doesn’t have the greatest WHIP or strikeout numbers, but he’s provided 3 valuable wins, so he gets a thumbs up as well. The hitter wasn’t as good of an addition, though. Pete Crow-Armstrong did provide 6 steals, but for those that played him he sunk their batting average and contributed no power or counting stats. Finally, the difficult case of Yimi Garcíais last. His numbers are pretty good (except for the ERA). He did produce 2 wins and 2 saves. But he’s on the IL and may not close moving forward. It’s a tough call but the emperor says thumbs down. (Maybe he’s making up for the fact that Yimi got a thumbs up at the beginning of the season?)

The “two thumbs up” week keeps the Main Event pickup record for 2024 at a good level, with 18 thumbs up (41%), 19 thumbs down and 7 pushes, and the thumbs up percentage is about equal to 2023 (44%). This is about the same neighborhood as the 2022 good pickups mark of 39% but better than 2021, which was 24%.

Colosseum Thumbs Up Record

• 2024 thus far: 41%
• 2023: 44%
• 2022: 39%
• 2021: 24%

2024 Colosseum Thumbs Up Players

Overall Leaderboard: Schroter’s Quota

Ladies and gentlemen, we’ve learned why Glenn Schroter is dominating the Main Event this year! Apparently the 2015 overall Main Event champ made a vow after his initial win that he would “win every 10 years” and is unwilling to wait until 10 years after his first victory in case “some luck turns against him.” Therefore, he feels he must meet this quota now. He did seem a little confused about the meaning of the word quota, though. During our in-depth interview he kept turning the conversation to his favorite quotes, and he insisted I insert one of the ones he liked the most below … which is a little strange because (as you can see at the top) Glenn did not draft a first baseman in the first 10 rounds…

Main Event Leaders in 2024

So Glenn leads by a healthy 117 points over his nearest rival, who is the fresher Eric Drescher. Apparently reinvigorated from a short hiatus, Eric is surging and thinks he can take over the top spot. Clark the Shark Olson is currently circling in prime position in third place, and The Liberator, Bradley Libros, is solidly in fourth and claims he will still liberate the masses of downtrodden Main Event managers (and he also has a Main Event team ranked 22nd). The impressive Knute Rockne aficionado Nicholi Knutson rounds out the top five. He has his eyes on the top spot for sure.

Beck’s Beer drinker Robert Beckman is all the way up to sixth place and just might be a big threat. Then there’s the Amazin’ Jason Santeiu, who not only is in seventh place this week, but he also has — get this — has the eighth- and 15^th-ranked overall teams. Zowie. The very tough guy to get rid of, Dave Rhydderch, sits in ninth, and Robert Cramutola, our 2022 Main Event Overall Champ, rounds out the top 10.

The magnanimous Brian Magnani is 11th, Chris Stir ‘Em Up’ Uram is in 12th, and Real Neil Petersen is back in 13th. Then there’s winery king Chris Boudreaux (14th), and (skipping Jason Santeiu’s 40th entry in the top 31), My Favorite Martin — Gregg Martin — is holed up in 16th.

A few other notables in the top 31 (the top 31 are paid an overall prize at the end of the season – see below table) – FTN Fantasy stalwart Jason Anthony in 20th, Unpaved Road Traveler Dustin Wagner (21st), the one true King Brandon King (25th), Drummer Griffin Benger (27th), and Finnish rose farmer Jordan Rosenblum (31st).

But all 31 of these fantasy managers are in the hunt for sure, and in a big 855-team contest like the Main Event, that’s all you can ask after a couple of months. We’re closing in on the halfway mark of the season (48.0%), but there’s still plenty of games to be played before October.

Top 31: Main Event 2024

League of Legends

Here are the 57 Main Event leagues with the current top three in the standings as of the morning of June 24.

Top Three: 2024 Main Event League Leaders

Shout-Outs

The 23 players listed below account for 19 of the 57 first-place positions (33%) and 53 of the 171 total cashing positions (31%). So far, the most outstanding performance across the Main Events belongs to Robert Cramutola with three, count ‘em, three first-place positions plus a second and a third! The next four are not too shabby either: Jason Santeiu has three firsts, Leonard RIngle has a first and two seconds, Dominic Rello has the across-the-board positions of one first, one second and one third and Scott Waggener has a second and two thirds. Congratulations! But see below, as there are several other fantasy managers doing terrific work.

Notables include:

• Three first, one second, one third — Robert Cramutola
• Three first — Jason Santeiu
• One first, two seconds — Leonard Ringle
• One first, one second, one third — Dominic Rello
• One second, two thirds — Scott Waggener
• Two firsts — Bradley Libros, Chris Uram
• One first; one second – Kyle Brinkmann, Zachary Waxman
• One first; One third – Brandon King, Gregg Martin, Glenn Schroter, Alan Mitchell, Clark Olson
• Two seconds — Bill Gaffney, Nelson Sousa
• One second, one third — Danny Bronski, Philippe Dussault, James Anderson, Abdulaziz Madani, James Hyler, James Maples, Matthew Dugan

Good luck to all the competitors in Week 15.