NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
PLATE SKILLS
MLB COUNTER = 21.3% of the season complete
How are the hitters on your fantasy team doing at the plate? Well, it’s often a good idea to look at the cuts they are taking, right? Sometimes they struggle for a long time, but then they just might step up to the dish and a little magic happens…
So I thought it would be good to check in on how MLB hitters are performing in 2024 compared to past seasons. We anticipate the hitting environment to be down somewhat early in the season, but it’s off more than I expected.
Below you can see how the hitting production has varied since 2017. Runs per game are down to 4.33 through May 4, and home runs are at a paltry 1.00 per contest. This compared to 4.62 and 1.21 for the full year 2023. Batting average is also all the way down below .240 (.239) while the only positive seems to be that stolen bases (and the success rate of players attempting steals) is holding the gains built up last season due to the MLB rule changes.
MLB HITTING STATS UPDATED THROUGH SATURDAY, MAY 4:
| MLB HITTING STATS | RUNS/GAME | HOME RUNS | BATTING AVERAGE | STOLEN BASES/GAME | SB SUCCESS RATE |
| 2024 YTD | 4.33 | 1.00 | 0.239 | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| 2023 | 4.62 | 1.21 | 0.248 | 0.72 | 0.80 |
| 2022 | 4.28 | 1.07 | 0.243 | 0.51 | 0.75 |
| 2021 | 4.53 | 1.22 | 0.244 | 0.46 | 0.76 |
| 2020 | 4.65 | 1.28 | 0.245 | 0.49 | 0.75 |
| 2019 | 4.83 | 1.39 | 0.252 | 0.47 | 0.73 |
| 2018 | 4.65 | 1.15 | 0.248 | 0.51 | 0.72 |
| 2017 | 4.65 | 1.26 | 0.255 | 0.52 | 0.73 |
I will keep tabs on this over the season, but for now don’t be surprised if your team looks a little light in most offensive categories – as many other teams in the Main Event will likely have the same general issue.
NFBC MAIN EVENT FAAB #7
In FAAB #6 on Sunday (our weekly look at how these top owners are spending their fictional $1,000 free agent acquisition budget in the Main Event), the bidding was much more aggressive than it had been in the previous six iterations. The top-10 widest acquisitions this week are in the chart below, and Tyler Black (MIL) was added in the most leagues (all 57). Black has good speed and stole 55 bases on 67 attempts (82.1% success rate) in 123 games in 2023. He does not display big power skills, but he has a good enough eye at the plate that he could perhaps reach 20 home runs in a full season. Second in the hearts of Main Event owners was Joey Loperfido (added in 56 of 57 leagues – he still remains unowned in one Main Event league), who hit .267 in his first 15 at bats for the Astros. There’s opportunity in Houston due to injuries (Chas McCormick) and demotions (Jose Abreu) if he can remain productive, but notably the Astros sat him against a left-handed pitcher last week. The No. 3 most-added player was Dodgers reliever Daniel Hudson, who is likely to take over closing duties while Evan Phillips is sidelined. Two other players were added in 49 and 47 leagues, respectively – Jordan Beck of the Rockies and Vidal Brujan of the Marlins. It’s a little uncertain if their teams will give them full-time run, but it appears they have an inside track to solid playing time. Five other players were added in 35 or more leagues: Jack Leiter of TEX (back for a second try), Wenceel Perez (DET, hitting very well in the early going), Jon Singleton of HOU (could be the everyday first baseman), Hayden Wesneski of CHC (gets a spot start this week) and Alex Lange of DET (a threat to Jason Foley in the closer role).
NFBC MAIN EVENT – MOST ADDED THIS WEEK: PAINT IT BLACK
| Player | Leagues Added | Highest Winning Bid | Lowest Winning Bid | Reason |
| Tyler Black | 57 | 315 | 38 | Rookie with lots of speed |
| Joey Loperfido | 56 | 281 | 30 | Big Power but K% high |
| Daniel Hudson | 53 | 250 | 7 | Filling in for Phillips |
| Jordan Beck | 49 | 154 | 1 | The latest COL OF prospect |
| Vidal Brujan | 47 | 84 | 1 | Finally a full-time role? |
| Jack Leiter | 40 | 56 | 3 | Nice matchup vs. OAK |
| Wenceel Perez | 39 | 85 | 1 | Hitting .302 w/3 HR |
| Jon Singleton | 36 | 89 | 4 | Abreu replacement |
| Hayden Wesneski | 36 | 59 | 1 | Gets start vs. SD this week |
| Alex Lange | 35 | 69 | 6 | Threat to Foley? |
Winning Bids over $100 and $200
I’m also keeping tabs on players attracting the highest individual FAAB bids as well. In the seventh run on May 5 (see below), there were 48 $200-plus successful bids, 40 more than last week! A whopping 32 of those 48 bids were for Christian Scott of the Mets, while five were for Joey Loperfido of Houston (see him in action below) and four were made to acquire the services of Tyler Black. In addition, there was one each for the following players: Junior Caminero, Daniel Hudson, Jose Alvarado, John Means, Jurickson Profar, Jesus Luzardo and Kyle Manzardo (who was added in two leagues). In addition, there were 95 bids of $100-199 scattered across the player landscape as owners searched for options for the upcoming week. That means 34% of this season’s $200+ bids were made this week (as were 23% of the $100-199 bids).
| FAAB Date | Winning Bids (< $200) | Winning Bids ($100-$199) |
| 3/24 | 1 | 9 |
| 3/31 | 58 | 43 |
| 4/7 | 1 | 23 |
| 4/14 | 13 | 80 |
| 4/21 | 14 | 80 |
| 4/28 | 8 | 75 |
| 5/5 | 48 | 95 |
| YTD | 143 | 405 |
JOEY ROPERFIDO
The Wow Bid of the Week: Great Scott
The highest overall bid in FAAB Week 7 was Christian Scott of the NYM. His services were won with a real Wow bid of $677 (the highest bid so far in 2024 – and it stands a great chance of being the highest bid this season), which had no problem overcoming an unsuccessful runner-up bid of $346. Scott was owned in 24 of 57 Main Event leagues before Sunday’s FAAB run and now is owned in all 57. He attracted a whopping 27 bids over $300 this week, with two between $400-499, two between $500-599 and of course one at an eye-popping $677.
- 3/24: Nolan Schanuel $200
- 3/31: Jason Foley $479
- 4/7: James McArthur $225
- 4/14 Brandon Nimmo $578
- 4/21 Wilyer Abreu $350
- 4/28 Pete Crow-Armstrong $355
- 5/5 Christian Scott $677
FAAB Summary: Spending Picks Up
In the seventh FAAB week, Main Event owners successfully made 1,925 winning bids (virtually the same as last week) and have spent about $365 of their $1,000 allocation. This is still lower than the last three years at the seven-week mark, but nevertheless it is the fourth straight week we’ve breached the $60 per week (per team) threshold (this week the average spend was $75). Main Event owners are still sufficiently well-stocked in FAAB so that they can spend if they get some attractive free agents in the pool. As you can see in the second chart below, this period traditionally is the highest per team per week, and because we breached the $70 per week mark for the first time, it may mean the spike weeks will last a bit longer this year – perhaps to Week 9 or 10.
TOTAL SPENT: MAIN EVENT THROUGH 7 FAAB PERIODS
- 2024: $365
- 2023: $467
- 2022: $399
- 2021: $432
The average Main Event Week 7 winning bid of $33.38 was not too far below the previous two years (which were between $37-39) but well above 2021 ($23).
| 2024 FAAB Week | Total # of Winning Bids | Total FAAB $ Spent | Average Winning Bid | Average Amount Spent (per team) | Cumulative FAAB Spent (per team) |
| 1 | 310 | $4,929 | $15.90 | $5.76 | |
| 2 | 1460 | $46,330 | $31.73 | $54.19 | $59.95 |
| 3 | 1728 | $34,480 | $19.95 | $40.33 | $100.28 |
| 4 | 1825 | $52,908 | $28.99 | $61.88 | $162.16 |
| 5 | 2029 | $57,486 | $28.33 | $67.24 | $229.40 |
| 6 | 1929 | $51,835 | $26.87 | $60.63 | $290.02 |
| 7 | 1925 | $64,251 | $33.38 | $75.15 | $365.17 |
| TOTAL | 11206 | $312,219 | $27.86 | $365.17 |
AVERAGE WEEKLY SPENDING PER TEAM (21-24):
| FAAB Period | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
| 1 | $5.76 | $8.46 | $11.29 | $9.89 |
| 2 | $54.19 | $63.55 | $51.24 | $86.71 |
| 3 | $40.33 | $70.01 | $65.29 | $85.95 |
| 4 | $61.88 | $86.51 | $62.57 | $67.98 |
| 5 | $67.24 | $67.77 | $53.82 | $67.41 |
| 6 | $60.63 | $77.52 | $71.32 | $66.39 |
| 7 | $75.15 | $93.31 | $83.64 | $47.16 |
| 8 | $75.35 | $65.81 | $42.71 |
The Colosseum
| Four Widest ME Pickups from 3 weeks ago | LGS Added | First three weeks stats after wide pickup |
| Yariel Rodriguez | 54 | 11.2 IP (10/6 K:BB) 0 W 4.63 ERA 1.80 WHIP |
| David Hamilton | 51 | .238 BA 0 HR 1 SB (3/1 R:RBI) |
| Blake Perkins | 49 | .219 BA 2 HR 1 SB (10/8 R:RBI) |
| Jose Soriano | 49 | 18.2 IP (17/12 K:BB) 1 W 2.41 ERA 1.29 WHIP |
Each week during the season, I’ll take a look at the four widest Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up), a bad idea (thumbs down) or simply a push. We’re focusing on the first three weeks after the pickup where players can earn their new owners some good stats (as they are generally in the active lineup) or underperform badly, leading to a drop as the weeks go by.
Three weeks ago, we had our fourth FAAB run, and as you can see from the above stats, we had two solid pickups (Blake Perkins and Jose Soriano). Perkins may have only produced a .219 average but contributed two homers, a stolen base and some nice counting stats. He gets a thumbs up. Jose Soriano may have been a little shaky with his walks, but he has good ratios and has produced 17 Ks and a win. On the flip side, Yariel Rodriguez couldn’t overcome his poor WHIP and is now on the injured list. Similarly, David Hamilton was supposed to add stolen bases in Boston’s middle infield but never hit enough to get regular playing time. They both get a thumbs down.
Main Event owners still have a strong leg up in 2024 with eight thumbs up (50%), four thumbs down and four pushes, which could allow us to surpass the final 2023 total of 39 thumbs up for the season (44%), 36 down (41%) and 13 pushes (15%). The 2023 good pickups were higher than the 2022 good pickups mark of 39% and 24% in 2021, so maybe we’re all improving?
Overall Leaderboard: Schroter Motors Ahead
Glenn Schroter, if you don’t know your NFBC Main Event history, is the 2015 champ, and you can see from the actual footage above that he has done well investing the money from that victory. Not only is he known as Schroter the Boater around these parts, but he is partial to motoring ahead of everyone on his lake. He moved from 12th to first overall two weeks ago and held onto the top spot this week. Glenn has three Main Event teams, and all three are in the top 115 of the contest, so it’s been an impressive campaign thus far. However, Andy Saxton, the man from Delaware, moved from seventh to second overall with one of his two Main Event entries and is not about to give in. While it may not be true that Andy successfully threw a coin across the Potomac River to emulate George Washington, he claims he has tried and came up “just short.” Bradley Libros held his place in third overall, the impressive Dave Rhydderch moved up to fourth overall from sixth last week (he also is 22nd overall), and Erik Sviggum just won’t give up and resides at fifth with his only Main Event entry.
Among the other top-30 contenders, Nicholi Knutson is sixth, Nelson Sousa is solidly in seventh, former Main Event overall champ Robert Cramutola is eighth, Todd Hoppe is ninth (from 12th last week) and Dohn Terrell rounds out the top 10 overall (from 29th a week ago!).
A few other notables in the top 31 (the top 31 are paid an overall prize at the end of the season – see below table) include Chris Uram (11th), Eric Drescher (12th), Eric Karlovic (13th), Andrew Sullivan (14th) and Chris Boudreaux (15th). Three guys I recommend keeping an eye on are Jason Santeiu (18th and 24th), Clark Olson (19th) and Danny Bronski (23rd) – they’re all threats each and every season.
But all 31 of these fantasy managers have gotten off to a terrific start, and that’s what you need in a big 855-team contest like the Main Event. Still, we’re only about 21% through the season, so a lot can certainly shift before October.
| Overall Rank | Overall Prize Money | Fantasy Manager | Overall Points | Points Behind 1st Place |
| 1 | $200,000 | Glenn Schroter | 7683.5 | 0.0 |
| 2 | $50,000 | Andy Saxton | 7403.0 | 280.5 |
| 3 | $30,000 | Bradley Libros | 7384.5 | 299.0 |
| 4 | $25,000 | Dave Rhydderch | 7379.5 | 304.0 |
| 5 | $20,000 | Erik Sviggum | 7354.5 | 329.0 |
| 6 | $15,000 | Nicholi Knutson | 7300.0 | 383.5 |
| 7 | $12,500 | Nelson Sousa | 7,227.50 | 456.0 |
| 8 | $10,000 | Robert Cramutola | 7128.0 | 555.5 |
| 9 | $9,000 | Todd Hoppe | 7112.5 | 571.0 |
| 10 | $8,000 | Dohn Terrell | 7053.0 | 630.5 |
| 11 | $7,500 | Chris Uram | 7007.5 | 676.0 |
| 12 | $7,000 | Eric Drescher | 6999.5 | 684.0 |
| 13 | $6,500 | Eric Karlovic | 6975.0 | 708.5 |
| 14 | $6,000 | Andrew Sullivan | 6948.5 | 735.0 |
| 15 | $5,500 | Chris Boudreaux | 6906.5 | 777.0 |
| 16 | $5,000 | Bill Gaffney | 6860.5 | 823.0 |
| 17 | $4,000 | Greg Diehl | 6795.0 | 888.5 |
| 18 | $3,500 | Jason Santeiu | 6761.5 | 922.0 |
| 19 | $3,000 | Clark Olson | 6744.5 | 939.0 |
| 20 | $2,500 | Michael O’Brien | 6715.0 | 968.5 |
| 21 | $2,400 | Stephen Ciepiela | 6681.5 | 1002.0 |
| 22 | $2,300 | Dave Rhydderch | 6671.0 | 1012.5 |
| 23 | $2,200 | Danny Bronski | 6639.0 | 1044.5 |
| 24 | $2,100 | Jason Santeiu | 6617.0 | 1066.5 |
| 25 | $2,000 | David Miller | 6594.5 | 1089.0 |
| 26 | $1,950 | Gregg Martin | 6574.0 | 1109.5 |
| 27 | $1,900 | Neil Petersen | 6566.5 | 1117.0 |
| 28 | $1,850 | Mark Bendar | 6557.0 | 1126.5 |
| 29 | $1,800 | Matthew Dugan | 6557.0 | 1126.5 |
| 30 | $1,750 | Jon Stadtmueller | 6542.5 | 1141.0 |
| 31 | $1,700 | Shawn Gidley | 6533.5 | 1150.0 |
| Average Top 31 Overall Score | Average Top 31 Overall Score | 6912.0 |
League of Legends
Here are the 57 Main Event leagues with the current top three in the standings as of the morning of May 6!
| NFBC League # | LEADER – $7,000 prize | 2nd Place – $3,500 prize | 3rd Place – $1,750 prize |
| 1190 | Ryan Welborn | Gregg Martin | Dan Iverson |
| 1194 | Nicholi Knutson | Daniel DaSilva | Greg Miller |
| 1232 | David Miller | Ray Murphy | Kelly Uganski |
| 1233 | Danny Bronski | Andrew Sullivan | Matthew Shepherd |
| 1337 | Zachary Waxman | Daniel DaSilva | Robert Osgood Jr. |
| 1380 | Philippe Dussault | Anjan Chaklader | Michelle Smith |
| 1381 | Steven Weimer | Jackson Price | Michael Mager |
| 1418 | Neil Petersen | Christopher Torres | Stephen Prepas |
| 1419 | Bill Gaffney | Paul Hong | Jeffrey Biddle |
| 1427 | Robert Cramutola | Ian Peterson | John Pausma |
| 1438 | Dave Rhydderch | Abdulaziz Madani | James Anderson |
| 1443 | Clark Olson | Nelson Sousa | Jason Santeiu |
| 1460 | Erik Sviggum | David Hinkel | Zach Bettencourt |
| 1479 | Dave Rhydderch | Robert Beckman | Jordan Rosenblum |
| 1484 | Adam Warner | Zach Bettencourt | Matthew Shepherd |
| 1485 | Bill Gaffney | Abdulaziz Madani | Jacob Sebastiao |
| 1487 | Mike Ballschmiede | Brian Magnani | Ryan Holewinski |
| 1488 | Douglas Roth | Richard DiMondo | Brandon King |
| 1489 | Ben Tidd | Richard DiMondo | Tyler Jung |
| 1493 | Alan Mitchell | Robert Kahn | Paul Jager |
| 1516 | Matthew Davis | Mark Bendar | Adam Warner |
| 1517 | Dominic Rello | Jon Stadtmueller | Todd Whitestone |
| 1518 | Michael O’Brien | Joe Meyer | Jeff Campbell |
| 1519 | Kevin Hasting | Zachary Waxman | Danny Bronski |
| 1520 | Peter Christensen | Steven Weimer | Bill Gaffney |
| 1521 | Griffin Benger | Dave Shovein | Carter Gill |
| 1522 | Jeff Erickson & Tim Schuler | Chris Liss | Glenn Schroter |
| 1523 | Clark Olson | James Tomony | Michael Lins |
| 1528 | David Einhorn | Richard DiMondo | Jonathan Vriesema |
| 1539 | Bradley Libros | Andrew Geller | Scott Schonewolf |
| 1566 | Greg Diehl | Jeff Mitseff | Matt Leahy |
| 1585 | Leonard Ringle | Dave Sowa | Brent Grooms |
| 1586 | Mike Massotto | Chris Slack | Scott Gilbert |
| 1587 | James Maples | Ken Clark | Yancy Eaton |
| 1598 | Eric Drescher | Michael O’Brien | Robert DiPietro |
| 1605 | Nelson Sousa | Peter Marrero | Ben Fils |
| 1615 | Eric Karlovic | Doug Cassidy | Mike Cameron |
| 1634 | Michael Lins | Aaron German | Rian Lange |
| 1645 | Stephen Ciepiela | Bradley Beckman | Dave Rhydderch |
| 1646 | Ned Donohue | David DiDonato | Tony Messer |
| 1647 | Jon Stadtmueller | Stephen Fiore | Matthew McDonough |
| 1648 | Dustin Wagner | Darren Wasney | Randall Haines |
| 1649 | Chris Fessler | Jason Anthony | Ross Berg |
| 1650 | David Miller | Mark Kieffer | Austin Sodders |
| 1653 | Scott Waggener | Steve Brunn | Scott Fleming |
| 1658 | Chris Uram | Matthew Dugan | James Shriver |
| 1676 | Todd Hoppe | Jason Santeiu | Chet Lexvold |
| 1680 | Nelson Sousa | Lawrence Schechter | Jenny Butler |
| 1685 | Dohn Terrell | Shawn Gidley | Michael Wallis |
| 1692 | Glenn Schroter | Robert Brendler | Paul Jager |
| 1707 | Brian Edwards | Hiep Hoang | Zachary Viglianco |
| 1714 | Chris Boudreaux | Aaron Lawson | Mike Ballschmiede |
| 1778 | Andy Saxton | Matthew Dugan | Carter Gill |
| 1817 | Glenn Schroter | Zach Bettencourt | Gregg Martin |
| 1820 | James Hyler | Tom Rodriguez | Robert Giese |
| 1831 | Jason Santeiu | Nelson Sousa | Dan Leonard |
| 1837 | Robert Cramutola | Stephen Prepas | Michael O’Brien |
Shout-outs
The 24 players listed below account for 20 of the 57 first-place positions (35%) and 58 of the 171 total cashing positions (34%) – great job thus far!
So far, the most outstanding performance across the Main Events is Nelson Sousa, who has two first places, one second place and one third. Congratulations Nelson! But see below as Richard DiMondo, Jason Santeiu, Glen Schroter, Dominic Rello and Dave Rhydderch are also doing terrific work!
Notables include:
Two firsts, one second, one third – Nelson Sousa
One first, two seconds – Richard DiMondo, Dave Rhydderch
One first, one second, one third – Jason Santieu
One first, two thirds – Glenn Schroter, Dominic Rello
Three seconds – Michael O’Brien, Zachary Waxman
Three thirds – Steven Weimer
Two firsts – David Miller, Robert Cramutola, Clark Olson, Bill Gaffney
One first; one second – Jon Stadtmueller
One first; One third – Gregg Martin, Chris Slack, Mike Ballschmiede, Abdulaziz Madani
Two seconds – Jeffrey Biddle, Matthew Dugan
One second, one third – David Hinkel, Paul Jager, Doug Moe
Two thirds – John Pausma
Good luck in Week 8!
