MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Preventing Home Runs
MLB COUNTER = 32.8% of the season complete
We’re just about exactly one-third of the way home. So happy Memorial Day to everyone – and let’s remember our fallen heroes on this day. Speaking of falling, this season’s home runs have (thus far) fallen well off the 2023 results of 1.21 home runs per game. Instead, we’re all the way down to 1.04 home runs per game, and yes, perhaps the cold weather early in the season is the culprit. On the other hand, maybe there is a special home run prevention technique that defenders are using…
MLB Runs & HRs Per Game (as of May 26):
| MLB Hitting Stats | Runs/Game | Home Runs |
| 2024 YTD | 4.34 | 1.04 |
| 2023 | 4.62 | 1.21 |
| 2022 | 4.28 | 1.07 |
| 2021 | 4.53 | 1.22 |
| 2020 | 4.65 | 1.28 |
| 2019 | 4.83 | 1.39 |
| 2018 | 4.65 | 1.15 |
| 2017 | 4.65 | 1.26 |
But there are some players who are producing round-trippers (thank goodness) and Aaron Judge, Kyle Tucker and Gunnar Henderson are at the top of the list (see second chart below). These three power bats have hit 17 home runs each as of Saturday, May 26 and don’t seem to be having any problem supplying power.
Below are this season’s top-24 home run hitters – those who have hit 10 or more long balls so far this season. These 24 account for 297 of the 1,620 home runs on the season, or 18.3% of the major league total. Five of these 24 were first-round selections (ADP is in parentheses) in the Main Event: Tucker (6) Shohei Ohtani (10), Juan Soto (11), Judge (13) and Jose Ramirez (15). In the second round, three more were taken: Bryce Harper (19), Rafael Devers (26) and Pete Alonso (30). The other 16 were more available for Main Event drafters no matter what their starting draft slot was: Henderson (36), Adolis Garcia (57), Mike Trout (80), Christian Walker (102), Teoscar Hernandez (105), Ketel Marte (114), Josh Naylor (134), Cal Raleigh (151), Marcell Ozuna (167), Tyler O’Neill (214), Taylor Ward (220), Shea Langeliers (252), Ryan Jeffers (255), Giancarlo Stanton (262), Brent Rooker (304) and Jo Adell (undrafted).
Home Run Leaders 2024 (as of May 26):
| Home Runs | Player |
| 17 | Aaron Judge; Kyle Tucker; Gunnar Henderson |
| 15 | Jose Ramirez; Marcell Ozuna |
| 14 | Juan Soto |
| 13 | Bryce Harper; Shohei Ohtani; Josh Naylor; Giancarlo Stanton |
| 12 | Teoscar Hernandez; Pete Alonso; Adolis Garcia |
| 11 | Cal Raleigh; Taylor Ward; Tyler O’Neill; Brent Rooker |
| 10 | Christian Walker; Ketel Marte; Rafael Devers; Ryan Jeffers; Shea Langeliers; Jo Adell; Mike Trout |
| 297 | Top 24 Home Run Hitters |
NFBC Main Event FAAB #10
In FAAB #10 Sunday (our weekly look at how these top owners are spending their fictional $1,000 free agent acquisition budget in the Main Event), the bidding remained fairly tepid. The top-10 widest acquisitions this week are in the chart below, and Adam Duvall (ATL) and David Hamilton (BOS) were added in the most leagues (52 and 47, respectively). None of the average winning bids were significant among the widest pickups, though. Duvall was in the $26 vicinity, and Hamilton and Mark Vientos were around $21-$22. None of these 10 players had an average winning bid in excess of $30. The only two players added in more than a handful of leagues who had relatively high average winning bids were Ben Lively (average of $51 from five leagues) and Dylan Moore (average of $49 from 11 leagues).
NFBC Main Event – Most Added this Week: Adam for Acuna
| Player | Leagues Added | Highest Winning Bid | Average Winning Bid | Reason |
| Adam Duvall | 52 | $58.00 | $26.56 | Regular PT with Acuna out |
| David Hamilton | 47 | $51.00 | $21.38 | Getting more AB in BOS |
| Mark Vientos | 41 | $60.00 | $22.71 | Taking over for Baty? |
| Jeremiah Estrada | 39 | $43.00 | $14.05 | Lockdown middle reliever |
| Luis Garcia (LAA) | 39 | $35.00 | $15.79 | Saves in Anaheim? |
| Albert Suarez | 38 | $59.00 | $19.92 | Filling in for Kremer |
| Ji Hwan Bae | 34 | $37.00 | $14.56 | Speed in PIT |
| Matt Waldron | 32 | $60.00 | $22.19 | Knuckler faces MIA |
| Jacob Hurtubise | 30 | $33.00 | $10.77 | Leading off for CIN |
| Jordan Wicks | 30 | $26.00 | $12.00 | Closing in on return |
Winning Bids over $100 and $200
I’m also keeping tabs on players attracting the highest individual FAAB bids. In the ninth run on May 19 (see below), there were just three (that’s right, three!) $200-plus successful bids, a very low total. These bids were for Wyatt Langford of TEX, Yainer Diaz of HOU and Willson Contreras of STL. That’s it. Then there were just six winning bids between $100-199: Aaron Civale, Carlos Estevez, David Fry, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ben Brown and Cooper Criswell. None of these nine players attracted multiple $100+ bids (in some cases because they were only available in one league, but in other cases despite being picked up elsewhere).
| FAAB Date | Winning Bids (< $200) | Winning Bids ($100-$199) |
| 3/24 | 1 | 9 |
| 3/31 | 58 | 43 |
| 4/7 | 1 | 23 |
| 4/14 | 13 | 80 |
| 4/21 | 14 | 80 |
| 4/28 | 8 | 75 |
| 5/5 | 48 | 95 |
| 5/12 | 10 | 58 |
| 5/19 | 11 | 24 |
| 5/26 | 3 | 6 |
| YTD | 167 | 493 |
The Wow Bid of the Week: Wyatt’s Earp
The highest overall bid in FAAB Week 10 was for Wyatt Earp, I mean Langford, of the Texas Rangers. His services were won with a bid of $248 (the third-lowest Wow bid so far in 2024), which beat out the unsuccessful runner-up bid of $217. You can see Wyatt happily preparing to return for the Rangers. He looks like he’s ready to come off the IL to me! (This was the only Main Event league in which Langford was a free agent.)
- 3/24: Nolan Schanuel $200
- 3/31: Jason Foley $479
- 4/7: James McArthur $225
- 4/14 Brandon Nimmo $578
- 4/21 Wilyer Abreu $350
- 4/28 Pete Crow-Armstrong $355
- 5/5 Christian Scott $677
- 5/12 Taj Bradley $444
- 519 Reed Garrett $420
- 5/26 Wyatt Langford $248
FAAB Summary: Main Event Owners – A Frugal Bunch
In the 10th FAAB week, Main Event owners successfully made 1,728 winning bids (virtually the same as last week) and have spent about $493 of their $1,000 allocation. This remains significantly lower than the last three years at the 10-week mark, and Week 10 was the lowest since I began tracking Main Event FAAB spending over the past four years at $33 per team (the previous three years it was $46, $46 and $59, respectively). With on average $507 of FAAB left per team, Main Event owners are very well-stocked in FAAB. Apparently they are waiting for something better than has been available thus far. As you can see in the second chart below, we are really beyond the normal high spending weeks (usually Week 2 to Week 8). So 2024 does not seem to be fitting our normal Main Event pattern.
Total Spent: Main Event Through 10 FAAB Periods
- 2024: $493
- 2023: $641
- 2022: $564
- 2021: $580
The average Main Event Week 10 winning bid of $16.44 was below the previous three years (which were between $25-$30).
FAAB Spending Summary
| 2024 FAAB Week | Total # of Winning Bids | Total FAAB $ Spent | Average Winning Bid | Average Amount Spent (per team) | Cumulative FAAB Spent (per team) |
| 1 | 310 | $4,929 | $15.90 | $5.76 | |
| 2 | 1460 | $46,330 | $31.73 | $54.19 | $59.95 |
| 3 | 1728 | $34,480 | $19.95 | $40.33 | $100.28 |
| 4 | 1825 | $52,908 | $28.99 | $61.88 | $162.16 |
| 5 | 2029 | $57,486 | $28.33 | $67.24 | $229.40 |
| 6 | 1929 | $51,835 | $26.87 | $60.63 | $290.02 |
| 7 | 1925 | $64,251 | $33.38 | $75.15 | $365.17 |
| 8 | 1875 | $45,824 | $24.44 | $53.60 | $418.76 |
| 9 | 1718 | $35,076 | $20.42 | $41.02 | $459.79 |
| 10 | 1728 | $28,757 | $16.64 | $33.63 | $493.42 |
| TOTAL | 16527 | $421,876 | $25.53 | $493.42 |
Average Weekly Spending Per Team (21-24):
| FAAB Period | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
| 1 | $5.76 | $8.46 | $11.29 | $9.89 |
| 2 | $54.19 | $63.55 | $51.24 | $86.71 |
| 3 | $40.33 | $70.01 | $65.29 | $85.95 |
| 4 | $61.88 | $86.51 | $62.57 | $67.98 |
| 5 | $67.24 | $67.77 | $53.82 | $67.41 |
| 6 | $60.63 | $77.52 | $71.32 | $66.39 |
| 7 | $75.15 | $93.31 | $83.64 | $47.16 |
| 8 | $53.60 | $75.35 | $65.81 | $42.71 |
| 9 | $41.02 | $51.57 | $51.68 | $46.22 |
| 10 | $33.63 | $46.77 | $46.93 | $59.57 |
The Colosseum
| Four Widest ME Pickups from 3 weeks ago | LGS Added | First three weeks stats after wide pickup |
| Tyler Black | 57 | .333 BA 0 HR 1 SB (0/0 R:RBI) |
| Joey Loperfido | 56 | .375 BA 1 HR 1 SB (3/3 R:RBI) |
| Daniel Hudson | 53 | 5.0 IP (6/0 K:BB) 0 W 2 SV 0.00 ERA 0.20 WHIP |
| Jordan Beck | 49 | .207 BA 2 HR 2 SB (4/8 R:RBI) |
Each week during the season, I’ll take a look at the four widest Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up), a bad idea (thumbs down) or simply a push. We’re focusing on the first three weeks after the pickup where players can earn their new owners some good stats (as they are generally in the active lineup) or underperform badly, leading to a drop as the weeks go by.
Three weeks ago, we had our seventh FAAB run, and (as you can see from the above stats) I have evaluated two of the pickups (Daniel Hudson and Jordan Beck) as somewhat mediocre. Yes, Hudson had a 0.00 ERA, but owners picked him up for saves while Evan Phillips was out, and in three weeks he only pitched 5 innings and supplied 2 saves. Beck’s playing time was picking up more recently, but his overall production was relatively tame, and now he has been placed on the IL with a fractured hand. But at least those two were better than Tyler Black and Joey Loperfido. Black only got three at-bats before being sent down, and Loperfido played very sparingly in his first three weeks after being added. Due to a lack of playing time, we have to sadly give both a thumbs down.
Main Event owners still are doing relatively well in 2024 with 12 thumbs up (43%), 9 thumbs down and 7 pushes, and the thumbs up percentage is about equal to 2023 (39 thumbs up for the season equalled 44%). This is about the same neighborhood as the 2022 good pickups mark of 39% but better than 2021, which was 24%.
Colosseum Thumbs Up Record:
2024 thus far: 43%
2023: 44%
2022: 39%
2021: 24%
Overall Leaderboard: Schroter is in a Band
So now that Glenn Schroter, the 2015 overall Main Event champ, is leading the 2024 Main Event for the fourth time in the last five weeks, it’s time to explore the man and his background. It turns out that Glenn is quite an accomplished musician – seen above with his pal – and plays under the stage name of Schroeder. It doesn’t seem like he has a care in the world as his fantasy team is rompling to glory in the Main Event, does it? Well, when you have Bobby Witt Jr., William Contreras, Marcell Ozuna, two pretty good Tylers (O’Neill and Glasnow) and closers Robert Suarez/Mason Miller, I suppose it’s easier to be relaxed. Glenn has three Main Event teams – ranked #1, #37 and #116 out of 855 – so let’s just say he’s having a solid first two months. However, fantasy ace Clark Olson moved up from sixth to second and is right on his heels (and he also has Main Event teams ranked #46 and #49). Also proving to be difficult to get “RYDD” of (see what I did there?) is Dave Rhydderch, who moved up to third from 12th overall. Then there’s star fantasy manager Jason Santeiu, who has teams holding down fourth and 28th on the overall leaderboard. Sheesh. Jason assured me once again that he’s not falling back to the pack anytime soon (OK, OK, I got it Jason). Also in the top five is Bradley Libros, who held in fifth place with his top Main Event entry, while yelling “Liberate!” as he prepares his FAAB every weekend, Bradley is a force to be reckoned with (although the shouting seems to be drawing complaints from his neighbors).
Among the other top-30 contenders, Nicholi Knutson moves to sixth from seventh, former Main Event Champ Robert Cramutola drops to seventh from second, Brian Magnani zooms to eighth from 14th, former leader Nelson Sousa falls to ninth from third and Andy Saxton pulls back to 10th from eighth.
A few other notables in the top 31 (the top 31 are paid an overall prize at the end of the season – see below table) include Jello Magnate Dominic Rello (11th), Bordeaux wine aficionado Chrish Boudreaux (12th), No pressure Eric Drescher (13th), Easter lover Todd Hoppe (14th) and another former Main Event Champ Abdulaziz Madani (15th). Three guys I recommend keeping an eye on are David Einhorn (19th), Dustin Wagner (23rd) and Freddie Freeman’s cousin Jeff (30th) – they’re definite threats to move up even further.
But all 31 of these fantasy managers have gotten off to a terrific start, and that’s what you need in a big 855-team contest like the Main Event. We’ve almost reached the one-third mark of the season (32.8%), but there’s still lots of games to be played before October.
Top 31: Main Event 2024
| Overall Rank | Overall Prize Money | Fantasy Manager | Overall Points | Points Behind 1st Place |
| 1 | $200,000 | Glenn Schroter | 7585.5 | 0.0 |
| 2 | $50,000 | Clark Olson | 7403.0 | 182.5 |
| 3 | $30,000 | Dave Rhydderch | 7281.5 | 304.0 |
| 4 | $25,000 | Jason Santeiu | 7260.5 | 325.0 |
| 5 | $20,000 | Bradley Libros | 7199.5 | 386.0 |
| 6 | $15,000 | Nicholi Knutson | 7101.0 | 484.5 |
| 7 | $12,500 | Robert Cramutola | 7,073.0 | 512.5 |
| 8 | $10,000 | Brian Magnani | 7004.5 | 581.0 |
| 9 | $9,000 | Nelson Sousa | 7002.5 | 583.0 |
| 10 | $8,000 | Andy Saxton | 6922.5 | 663.0 |
| 11 | $7,500 | Dominic Rello | 6911.5 | 674.0 |
| 12 | $7,000 | Chris Boudreaux | 6908.5 | 677.0 |
| 13 | $6,500 | Eric Drescher | 6902.5 | 683.0 |
| 14 | $6,000 | Todd Hoppe | 6852.5 | 733.0 |
| 15 | $5,500 | Abdulaziz Madani | 6795.5 | 790.0 |
| 16 | $5,000 | Chris Uram | 6740.0 | 845.5 |
| 17 | $4,000 | Stephen Ciepiela | 6739.5 | 846.0 |
| 18 | $3,500 | Richard DiMondo | 6722.5 | 863.0 |
| 19 | $3,000 | David Einhorn | 6688.5 | 897.0 |
| 20 | $2,500 | Mike Ballschmiede | 6675.0 | 910.5 |
| 21 | $2,400 | Eric Karlovic | 6664.5 | 921.0 |
| 22 | $2,300 | Andrew Sullivan | 6605.5 | 980.0 |
| 23 | $2,200 | Dustin Wagner | 6579.5 | 1006.0 |
| 24 | $2,100 | Robert DiPietro | 6559.5 | 1026.0 |
| 25 | $2,000 | Neil Petersen | 6543.5 | 1042.0 |
| 26 | $1,950 | Bill Gaffney | 6488.0 | 1097.5 |
| 27 | $1,900 | Joe Anthony | 6486.0 | 1099.5 |
| 28 | $1,850 | Jason Santeiu | 6474.5 | 1111.0 |
| 29 | $1,800 | Jackson Price | 6465.5 | 1120.0 |
| 30 | $1,750 | Jeff Freeman | 6445.5 | 1140.0 |
| 31 | $1,700 | Scott Fleming | 6441.5 | 1144.0 |
| Average Top 31 Overall Score | Average Top 31 Overall Score | 6823.3 |
Main Event Leaders in 2024
| Week | Date | Fantasy Owner | Overall Points | Margin Over Second | Current Overall Place |
| 1 | 3/31 | Jenny Butler | 7501.5 | 48.5 | 334th |
| 2 | 4/7 | Nelson Sousa | 7468.5 | 22.0 | 9th |
| 3 | 4/14 | Nelson Sousa | 7646.0 | 13.0 | 9th |
| 4 | 4/21 | Greg Diehl | 7501.5 | 134.5 | 33rd |
| 5 | 4/28 | Glenn Schroter | 7481.0 | 63.0 | 1st |
| 6 | 5/5 | Glenn Schroter | 7673.0 | 255.5 | 1st |
| 7 | 5/12 | Robert Cramutola | 7731.0 | 105.5 | 7th |
| 8 | 5/19 | Glenn Schroter | 7538.0 | 35.0 | 1st |
| 9 | 5/26 | Glenn Schroter | 7585.5 | 182.5 | 1st |
League of Legends
Here are the 57 Main Event leagues with the current top three in the standings as of the morning of May 27!
Top Three: 2024 Main Event League Leaders
| NFBC League # | LEADER – $7,000 prize | 2nd Place – $3,500 prize | 3rd Place – $1,750 prize |
| 1190 | Kyle Brinkmann | Gregg Martin | Ryan Welborn |
| 1194 | Nicholi Knutson | Michael Alloca | Daniel DaSilva |
| 1232 | Joe Anthony | Ray Murphy | Adam Mayer |
| 1233 | Andrew Sullivan | Matthew Shepherd | Danny Bronski |
| 1337 | Daniel DaSilva | Doug Moe | Robert Osgood Jr. |
| 1380 | Michelle Smith | Philippe Dussault | Scott Waggener |
| 1381 | Michael Mager | Jackson Price | Steven Weimer |
| 1418 | Neil Petersen | Stephen Prepas | Tom O’Bryan |
| 1419 | Bill Gaffney | Michael Brophy | Brody John |
| 1427 | Robert Cramutola | Dave Anderson | Ian Peterson |
| 1438 | Abdulaziz Madani | Chris Uram | Dave Rhydderch |
| 1443 | Jason Santeiu | Nelson Sousa | Clark Olson |
| 1460 | Erik Sviggum | David Hinkel | Dalton Del Don |
| 1479 | Dave Rhydderch | Robert Beckman | Jordan Rosenblum |
| 1484 | Joe Bavaro | Michael Mager | Matthew Shepherd |
| 1485 | Clark Olson | John Pausma | Jacob Sebastiao |
| 1487 | Brian Magnani | Mike Ballschmiede | Adam Baker |
| 1488 | Brandon King | Michael Richards | Scott Davis |
| 1489 | Richard DiMondo | Tyler Jung | Joe Green |
| 1493 | Alan Mitchell | Ian Hubbard | Robert Cramutola |
| 1516 | Matthew Davis | Dustin McComas | Mark Bendar |
| 1517 | Dominic Rello | Eddie Gillis | Bill Macey |
| 1518 | Michael O’Brien | Jeff Campbell | Joe Green |
| 1519 | Kevin Hasting | Steve Maier | Dalton Del Don |
| 1520 | Peter Christensen | Bryan Fitzgerald | Steven Weimer |
| 1521 | Griffin Benger | Dave Shovein | Carter Gill |
| 1522 | Glenn Schroter | Stephen Jupinka | Scott Slezak |
| 1523 | Clark Olson | James Tomony | Jacob Halusker |
| 1528 | Richard DiMondo | David Einhorn | Josh Pettersen |
| 1539 | Bradley Libros | Stephen Fiore | Dominic Rello |
| 1566 | Mark Srebro | Greg Diehl | Matt Leahy |
| 1585 | Leonard Ringle | Dave Sowa | Rey Diaz |
| 1586 | Mike Massotto | Rich Barry | Scott Gilbert |
| 1587 | James Maples | Zachary Waxman | John Doering |
| 1598 | Eric Drescher | Robert DiPietro | Matthew Shepherd |
| 1605 | Nelson Sousa | Peter Marrero | Mike Ballschmiede |
| 1615 | Eric Karlovic | Matthew Anderson | Doug Cassidy |
| 1634 | Michael Lins | Bob Catsiroumpas | Aaron German |
| 1645 | Stephen Ciepiela | Bradley Beckman | Dominic Rello |
| 1646 | David DiDonato | Ned Donohue | Tony Messer |
| 1647 | Stephen Fiore | Jon Statdmueller | James Tomony |
| 1648 | Dustin Wagner | Jeffrey Biddle | Randall Haines |
| 1649 | Jason Anthony | Chris Fessler | David Bone |
| 1650 | Dalton Del Don | Mark Kieffer | Douglas Gruber |
| 1653 | Scott Fleming | Steve Brunn | Scott Waggener |
| 1658 | Chris Uram | Matthew Dugan | Andrew Kaplan |
| 1676 | Jason Santeiu | Todd Hoppe | Matt Modica |
| 1680 | Jeff Freeman | Michael DeCalvalcante | David Cushard |
| 1685 | Shawn Gidley | Michael Wallis | David Deterra |
| 1692 | Glenn Schroter | Andrew McQuiston | Robert Brendler |
| 1707 | Glenn Giro | Zachary Viglianco | Pat Tremaglio |
| 1714 | Chris Boudreaux | Mike Ballschmiede | Anthony Donisch |
| 1778 | Andy Saxton | Tyler Jung | Carter Gill |
| 1817 | Matthew Dugan | Gregg Martin | Glenn Schroter |
| 1820 | Danny Bronski | James Hyler | Tom Rodriguez |
| 1831 | Jason Santeiu | Tim Wagner | Dan Leonard |
| 1837 | Michael O’Brien | Robert Cramutola | Alan Mitchell |
Shout-outs
The 25 players listed below account for 24 of the 57 first-place positions (42%) and 57 of the 171 total cashing positions (33%). So far, the most outstanding performance across the Main Events belongs to Jason Santeiu, who has three (count ‘em!) three first places! Congratulations! Also sporting three league placements are Clark Olson, Dominic Rello, Glenn Schroter (two firsts and one third), Robert Cramutola (one first, one second and one third), Dalton Del Don (one first and two thirds) and Mike Ballschmiede (two seconds and one third). But see below as there are several other fantasy managers doing terrific work!
Notables include:
Three first – Jason Santeiu
Two first, one third – Clark Olson, Dominic Rello, Glenn Schroter
One first, one second, one third – Robert Cramutola
One first, two thirds – Dalton Del Don
Two seconds, one third – Mike Ballschmiede
Two firsts – Richard DiMondo, Michael O’Brien
One first; one second – Michael Mager, Chris Uram, Nelson Sousa, Stephen Fiore, Matthew Dugan
One first; One third – Daniel DaSilva, Dave Rhydderch, Danny Bronski, Alan Mitchell
Two seconds – Gregg Martin, Tyler Jung
One second, one third – James Tomony, Matthew Shepherd
Two thirds – Steven Weimer, Scott Waggener, Joe Green
Good luck in Week 11!
