Whitestone’s Waiver Watch: NFBC Main Event

HITTING THE WALL

Welcome to my weekly Main Event recap article. Each week, I’ll dig into the top free agents added in this premiere fantasy baseball contest, letting you know who was added in the most leagues, how much money was spent and more. In addition, we’ll revisit the top pickups from three weeks ago and even scan the Main Event overall standings to see who’s at the top. And this week I’ll provide you with strong evidence that FAAB dollars are indeed finite.

MLB COUNTER = 44.3% of the season complete

UPDATED MAIN EVENT 80% OVERALL TARGET LEVELS

The updated 2023 statistics that would produce 80% of the points in each category are in the chart below. The 80% level is chosen because if a fantasy team can achieve a total that provides 80% of the overall contest points in any category not only will give you strong rotisserie points in your individual league, but if you can do so in each of the ten categories you will be in contention for the overall prizes as well.

Below ere are the up-to-date targets for the ten rotisserie categories for the NFBC Main Event – on the left is the current amount (as of Monday morning) to be at 80% and on the right is the projected straight-line value if the current pace continues for the remainder of 2023.

I am planning to alternate this 80% update with the overall MLB pitching and hitting stats you have seen in this section moving forward – since there is less movement in the numbers now that we’re a good percentage through the season. So next week we will check in on those MLB levels for the year to date.

Most Common FAAB Pickups in the Main Event: Rosters Now Have Quite a Sheehan

The 10 widest acquisitions are in the chart below, and Emmet Sheehan was the leader this week – added in all 53 leagues (you know we had to have a rookie starting pitcher at the top, right?). This week he had a little competition, though, as outfield prospect Luis Matos was called up by the San Francisco Giants. Emmet was still the leader, with a high of $178, while Matos had a high bid of $142 . Then we did have a little closer action beyond that, as Jordan Hicks picked up a couple of saves this week and Main Event owners added him in 48 leagues. Next was Samad Taylor, who just might add some stolen bases to league totals in Kansas City, while a Sunday save vaulted Jason Foley of the Tigers into fifth overall as he was picked up in 40 leagues.

THE CENTURY CLUB

In the 13th FAAB run (see below), there were NO $200-plus successful bids for the first time this year (down from 58) – and just 28 over $100 (with 12 of these 28 for Sheehan; and 5 for Matos). As you can see below, we’ve had 524 total winning bids over $200 (which may be about the final total) and 1208 total $100+ winning bids in the first thirteen weeks of FAAB.

The Wow Bid of the Week

So, who attracted the highest single bid of the week? Of course it is no surprise that the highest winning bid was for Emmet Sheehan – but the fact that this was the lowest WOW bid of the year shows you how the money has dried up. The top winning bid was $178 which edged out the $148 runner up amount. We have reached fiscal responsibility!

• 3/26: Darick Hall $221
• 4/2: Dany Jiménez $363
• 4/9 Oscar Colás $372
• 4/16 Taj Bradley $557
• 4/23 José Alvarado $399
• 4/30 Tanner Bibee $504
• 5/7 Bryce Miller $468
• 5/14 Eury Pérez $415
• 5/21 Bobby Miller $329
• 5/28 Bobby Miller $412
• 6/4 Royce Lewis $429
• 6/11 Elly De La Cruz $650
• 6/18 Emmet Sheehan $178

FAAB Summary

In the first 13 FAAB weeks, Main Event owners have had 20,365 winning bids (so each Main Event team has won 25.6 bids on average YTD – roughly two per week) and spent about $778 of their $1,000 allocation. Comparing that to the last two years at the 8-week mark, that’s more than the $678 spent in 2022 AND the $677 spent two years ago. You can see in the chart below (the average amount spent per team column) that there was a huge drop in weekly spending – from $65.35 spent per team last week to just $28.23 this week. But with 27 FAAB periods and $778 spent in 12 weeks, owners who have an average amount left are going to have to economize even further by averaging $15.86 per week for ALL their winning bids over the final 14 weeks of the campaign. Is it perhaps time for some really strong $5 to 10 bids?

The Colosseum

Each week during the season, I take a look at the four widest Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up), a bad idea (thumbs down) or simply a push. In the chart below, you can see the results from the 10th FAAB period.  Nolan Jones of Colorado leads us off and he’s been very good – a .328 batting average with 4 homers, 4 steals and plenty of counting stats – he gets a thumbs up from the emperor of course. Then we have one of the better starting pitcher pickups of the season – Bobby Miller. Despite his most recent rocky outing, he has provided two wins and excellent ratios. He gets a thumbs up for sure. Luis Urías, though, has not worked out – as he has just four hits since his pickup. Then we have the surprising case of Willi Castro (at least to me). The average isn’t overly impressive but he has a homer and FIVE steals – with 10 runs scored. This pushes him into the thumbs up area as far as the emperor is concerned..

This now gives us 17 thumbs up for the season thus far (42.5%), 17 down (42.5%), and 6 pushes (15%). That’s slightly better than 2022, which registered a 39% thumbs up on these weekly pickups, and well ahead of 2021 (24%). 

Overall Leaderboard: The Calendar Turns Back to Maier

Steve Maier apparently didn’t like being out of first place. He responded aggressively by surging back into the overall lead for the fourth time this season (tying Michael Mager for weeks led). He is insisting, however, that the month of May is not over, and says he has NSYNC-ed up the NFBC calendar so that it will show only May from now on. Why thanks, Steve!

In the overall top thirty standing below, we find Brandon King now in second place (from 9th the previous week), and Mr. Consistent Eric Christenson now in 3rd from 4th last week. Michael Mager is now lurking in 4th (from 7th last week, and he also has the 10th place overall team), and the great Clark Olson is in 5th (AND 13th AND – Oh Man – 16th!); Speaking of great – Andrew Geller moves up sharply to 6th from 12th – he’s always a threat – and Bob Catsiroumpas is back in the mix in 7th place this year (moving up from 19th – wow!). Jeff Tudor dropped back a little to 8th, and Ned Donohue is now 9th (AND 22nd!) – watch out for Ned Donohue, that’s all I have to say…

Speaking of guys to watch out for, the outstanding John Pausma is 11th and 12th – more on him later. Mike Kurland dropped back to 14th, but he and Ari Benjamin are not out of this by any means.

There’s lots of other strong contenders in the top thirty list – and with more than half of the season left, we just cannot know how this will turn out.

In a new feature this week, I am showing below the scoring breakdown of the top five overall players. The blue cells indicate that they are above 90% in that category, white is between 80-90%, and yellow is below the 80% threshold. As you can see, Steve Maier has only one category below 80% (stolen bases), while Brandon King has two (stolen bases and saves). But please note that Brandon has the top overall team in both home runs and RBI – getting the maximum 795 points in both categories. And in addition, his 784 points in runs scored are not too shabby either. Eric Christenson needs a little work in three categories – stolen bases, batting average and saves, while Michael Mager doesn’t have as many 90%+ categories but is pretty consistent across all ten (he DOES have 790 points in WHIP though!). Finally, Clark Olson is the best in saves out of this group – but could use a little more power to reach the top, along with improvement in ERA and WHIP.

Champions Update

I like to keep tabs on our recent Overall Champions, because they have proven their mettle over long, difficult campaigns and therefore MUST be threats to do so again.

Philippe Dussault: Philippe is back, and I take full credit for this. After employing my motivational strategy in this article, Phil first shot up to 201st from 275th place (out of 795 total) three weeks ago, two weeks ago to 187th! Last week? 160th overall. And this week? 134th (with another team 142nd). I am now planning a series of for-profit motivational seminars which will be available at a special low price!.

Robert Cramutola: Bob bounced back – as he has a history of doing. Last week he fell from 56th to 206th. But he’s now back to 130th (he says he’s WAY ahead of Phil Dussault) and is STILL SURE that he will win the overall championship again this season. There’s still time, but Bob – Steve Maier is looking pretty good!!

League of Legends

Shout-Outs

Now maybe I went a little too far with this BRANDON KING HERO stuff? It’s true that Brandon was the fantasy player that finally led John Pausma in a Main Event league (now Al Williams has turned the trick as well) – to give Mr. Pausma leads in ONLY three Main Event leagues out of five (and he is second in the other two). But Brandon is now second overall – and all I can say is that I didn’t mean for this to happen. Brandon apparently thinks if he can beat John Pausma in a league he can beat EVERYONE in the Main Event. 

Nelson Sousa also has the misconception that he should be in a cashing position in every Main Event league – he now has five teams in the top three places. Ned Donohue just prefers to be in first place – where he is in three Main Events. Mike Mager, Clark Olson, Danny Bronski and David Miller are also in the top three in three leagues. Those seven fantasy players have 12 first place positions; 6 second place; and 7 third place – wow. Excellent job gentlemen!

Sixteen other players are in two cashing spots, with Philippe Dussault back in a cashing spot in the two leagues he is in. In fact, these 23 Main Event stars below have a combined 22 first place positions (42%) and 57 cashing spots (36% of the 159 total available). There’s a long way to go of course, but right now the story of the season in the Main Event is Pausma, Sousa, Donohue, Mager, Olson, Bronski and Miller – but remember – it’s still Maier on the calendar according to some. So that $222 average FAAB remaining has to last for a good long while!

Good luck during Week 14!