Tipico Tips: MLB bets for Tuesday

Tuesday is a busy day for MLB action on Tipico Sportsbook — the local teams where Tipico operates are all in action. The Yankees are at home against the Blue Jays, the Phillies are in Miami to play the Marlins, and the Mets are at home against the Rockies. The big news is that deGoat — Jacob deGrom — is scheduled to be on the mound for the Mets. He is the top pitcher on the planet right now, so Mets fans are incredibly happy to see his name on the schedule. 

Here are some things to watch for Tuesday.

Will Corey Kluber give up a hit?

OK, this is probably hyperbole, but the guy did fire a no-no his last time out. Mets fans will be happy to know Steven Matz is starting for the Blue Jays opposite Kluber. They would be happy because he’s no longer starting for the Mets. Kluber is the more interesting of the two to start with. The guy just threw nine no-hit innings, which always makes a pitcher's seasonal numbers look better. This is why I am a little concerned though: Kluber’s K/9 is below a strikeout per inning. Since 2014, Kluber has been over a strikeout per inning, but he has come in a tad below this year. His BB/9 is also higher than his historical norms. He’s been at or below 2 BB/9 historically, but this year he is over 3.5 BB/9. The 2.86 ERA is a tad below his 3.15 lifetime mark, but remember that was aided by a no-hitter last time out. The xFIP is over 4 this year, but it’s at 3.11 lifetime, and this concerns me — if and when they diverge, they typically revert to the mean at some point. The problem is the mean is the xFIP, and if Kluber reverts he is not nearly as good as he once was. Sure, he spun a gem last game, but he threw more pitches than normal, and that is just another reason why his regression could be coming. I’m always wary of a pitcher coming off a high pitch count. He may not get as deep into the game as he did last time out, and it’s almost a guarantee he won’t have the same success. Add on the fact this is a solid Blue Jays lineup against RHP this year, sporting a 105 wRC+ score and it does not look great for the Yankees. 

On the other side, Matz is, well, Steven Matz. He has some nasty stuff if you are a lefty. If you are a righty, it’s arguably a home run derby. The Yankees lineup is populated with right-handed hitters who have power, so this matchup screams red flags for Matz. Unfortunately, I cannot get myself to lay -180 on the Yanks here. I’m also not willing to go +145 on the Blue Jays. The way to play this game is to look at that total. Normally 9.5 is a lot of runs, but I cannot see how it does not get there in this matchup. Both pitchers could potentially blow up, and even if they don’t I can’t see them shutting down the offenses they face. Will Kluber give up a hit? Absolutely. My hope is he gives up a lot of them and so does Matz, because that will help us cash this over. 

To bet deGoat or not to bet deGoat? This is the question

Jacob deGrom is the best pitcher on the planet. He also had to be scratched a few weeks ago from a scheduled start. He took some time off, geared back up in the minors and was even more dominant than he tends to be in the majors. Tipico has deGrom as a -280 favorite here. The Colorado Rockies are the worst-hitting team in the league against RHP by a wide margin. This is literally the biggest mismatch in all of baseball, so -280 actually seems a little bit cheap. My biggest concern here actually has nothing to do with deGrom. It has everything to do with the anemic Mets offense. This game is a disaster in terms of run scoring. DeGrom does not give them up, and his offense rarely if ever has his back. Enter the way to play this game. Sure, you can take deGrom at -280 and hope the Mets score for him, or you can take the path of least resistance. That path is the under on that 6.5 run total. Even this low a total is juiced up from normal levels to -130. That is not a good thing, but in a way it is. It actually gives me even more confidence to take that play. Projections I see have this game at under 5 runs. I had to check it twice, because I thought that was an error. Given how bad both offenses have been and how good deGrom is, -130 on that under with almost a full 1.5 runs of value feels like a steal. 

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