Tipico Tips: MLB bets for Thursday

There are 15 MLB games around the diamond Thursday, including a combined four from the two New York teams. The New York Mets play a doubleheader against the Colorado Rockies, with first pitch scheduled for 12:10 p.m. ET. The Mets are 12-5 at home and hold a 1.5-game lead in the NL East. The New York Yankees host the Toronto Blue Jays twice, with first pitch set for 4:05 p.m. ET. The Yankees are 1.5 games back of the Tampa Bay Rays for first in the AL East.

Below are my favorite MLB picks using the odds at the Tipico Sportsbook. Make sure you download their app for the latest odds. If you’re looking for more bets this season, check out the FTN Bet Tracker at FTNBets.com. 

Baltimore Orioles (+180) @ Chicago White Sox (-220) — O/U 8.5

On a nine-game losing streak, the Orioles look to end their skid in Chicago against the White Sox with first pitch set for 8:10 p.m. ET. The White Sox are heavy home favorites as they should be, considering they’ll see pitches from lefty Bruce Zimmermann. The southpaw enters with a 5.59 ERA (6.87 on the road), and he’s allowed nine homers through 38.2 innings. 

Chicago has a league-high .360 wOBA, 133 wRC+, .832 OPS, .473 SLG and .360 OBP against left-handed pitchers this season. Only the Houston Astros have a better average against LHP (.284) than Chicago (.280). Zimmermann doesn’t really have a lot to offer as left-handed hitters check-in with a .374 wOBA and righties have a .411 wOBA. He’s failed to complete six innings over his last six outings, and Baltimore’s bullpen has a 4.41 ERA which is the 10th-highest mark in the game. 

The White Sox will counter with Dylan Cease, who has a 3.18 ERA and 2.10 mark at home over 25.2 innings. Cease has 45.1 innings on the 2021 MLB resume and he’s currently rocking a career-best 29 K%, 14.5 SwStr% and 29.3 CSW%. His walks are still an issue (4.76 BB/9), but the O’s have a bottom five walk rate to go along with a bottom five average against right-handed pitchers. Only the Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers have a lower wOBA (.286) against RHP than Baltimore. Overall, the Orioles rank in the bottom six in wRC+, ISO, OPS, SLG and OBP against righties this season.

The pick: White Sox -1.5 (-105)

Los Angeles Angels (+130) @ Oakland Athletics (-160) — O/U 7.5

AL MVP favorite Shohei Ohtani is set to make his seventh start of the season as his Angels begin a four-game series in Oakland against the A’s. It’s the first of six straight on the road for the Angels, who enter on a three-game winning streak. It’s the first time the Halos have won three straight games since their opening series of the season against the White Sox. Even with the wins of late, the Angels trail the Athletics by six games for the AL West lead.

Ohtani’s hitting has been on full display, but he’s been solid on the mound as well. He has a 2.37 ERA and 13.35 K/9 (34.9 K%) in 30.1 innings. He has a sky-high 6.53 BB/9 (17.1 BB%) as he’s walked 22 batters, but he’s only issued three free passes over his last two starts (11.2 IP). That’s a massive improvement considering he walked 19 in his first four outings (18.2 IP) of the season. The righty has yet to allow more than five hits in an outing and has only surrendered more than two earned runs once. His 14.3 SwStr% and 31.8 CSW% are elite as is his 52 GB%.

Oakland snapped their three-game losing skid Wednesday night with a 6-3 win against Seattle. It was just their third win in their last eight games. They’ll give the ball to Chris Bassitt as the righty will be making his second straight start against the Angels. Bassitt only allowed two runs on five hits over 7.2 innings against Los Angeles May 22. He fanned eight batters and only walked one en route to his fourth win of the season. Bassitt lowered his ERA to 3.69, and the eight punchouts marked the sixth time in his last seven starts where he managed to finish with at least seven strikeouts. Bassitt has a career-high 25.7 K%, 11.6 SwStr%, 28.3 CSW% and 9.59 K/9 through 61 innings this season. He’s completed at least six innings in seven of his past nine starts and he’s only allowed more than two runs in two of his 10 starts. 

This has all the makings of a pitcher's duel in spacious RingCentral Coliseum. My only concern with the total is that the Angels have the fifth-worst bullpen (5.03 ERA) in the majors. Ultimately, I think Ohtani does enough to keep this game under the total, but it’ll be the bullpen that gives the A’s the win.

The pick: Athletics and Under 7.5 runs

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