MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
The All-Star Game marks the halfway point in the MLB season. It is also a good time for bettors to check in on their favorite teams and see where the odds are before the second half of the season starts. In the local New Jersey market for Tipico Sportsbook, that means it is time to check in on the New York Mets, New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies. Whether you call it Taylor Ham or pork roll, you have a rooting interest in one of these three teams and the ability to put your money where your mouth is and back them for the rest of the season.
Are the Mets the best team in New York?
I know Yankees fans are not going to like this, but the answer from the first half of the season is clearly yes. The Mets currently sit in first place in the NL East with a 3.5-game lead on the second-place Phillies. In terms of our local teams in the Tipico market, they have the best chance to make the playoffs at -290. Mets fans will be happy to know that -290 equates to a 74.3% implied probability of the Mets playing in October. Despite leading the NL East, though, the Mets only have the sixth-best record in the National League. Basically, it’s a win-your-division-or-go-home proposition for them. If you want an even better price than the -290 to make the playoffs, you can get them to win the division at -280. It’s not a massive discount, but it is a better payout, and based on the win totals in the NL West, the only path the Mets are likely to have to the playoffs is by winning the East.
Can the Yankees make the playoffs?
Are they physically able to and not eliminated from the hunt? Sure. But with each passing day it does look less and less likely. The Yanks are currently in fourth place in their own division, trailing the Blue Jays, Rays and division-leading Boston Red Sox. The Sox have an 8-game lead on the Yankees, and Tampa Bay is up 6.5 games on them. The Yankees would probably need to at least catch Tampa to even have a shot of sneaking into the Wild Card at this point and 6.5 is not an insignificant number of games to make up. If you are a true believer and have faith they will turn it around, the odds are currently +150 for the Yankees to make the playoffs, implying a 40% chance of it happening. If you really have faith, you can currently get the Yankees at +1200 to win the division for a 7.6% implied probability.
Can the Phillies win the NL East?
Philadelphia currently sits in second, 3.5 games behind the East-leading Mets. The Phillies and Mets are both a handful of games behind the NL West trio in the standings. The best and probably only path either of them has to the playoffs is winning the division. The Phillies are currently a +380 to even make the playoffs — that implies a 20.8% chance. To win the division they are +650, which is a 13.3% chance. Like with the Mets, I prefer to take the Phillies to win the division if I am going to bet them. The Padres are nine games clear in the win column and the Dodgers and Giants are both clear by double-digit wins. This is why winning the division is so important for both the Phillies and the Mets, as it is likely the only path either of them has to the playoffs and the loser likely watches the postseason from home. It doesn’t make sense to cut your payout in half if you want to bet the Phillies. Stick with the division win as that is the much better value of the two.
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