Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Every Monday, I try to turn the daily MLB slate writeup into more of an evergreen, DFS strategy/theory piece to which you can return at any time and still find value. Today’s conversation is all about how to handle the uncertainty that comes with players called up from the minors. How much should we rely on their minor league stats? How does their range of outcomes compare to the range of outcomes of more established pitchers and hitters? Answering these questions will help us figure out how to attack Monday’s slate.
Pitchers
Yilber Díaz is making his third big-league start, and River Ryan (real person, I swear) is making his debut. Both of these guys have strong minor-league strikeout numbers, but that doesn’t always translate. For example, Díaz posted a 34.2% K rate in 54 AA innings and a 30.8% K rate in 22 AAA innings, but has just a 15.6% K rate in 12 big-league innings. This lack of translation can extend beyond strikeouts, too. Tyler Phillips posted a 4.33 xFIP and a 19.8% K rate in AAA this season before making the jump to the Phillies. In three starts, he has a 2.81 ERA with a 25% K rate, backed by a 3.05 xFIP. Point being, minor league stats help, but we have very little idea how good (or bad) a pitcher will be. I think part of this uncertainty is selection bias Phillips got an opportunity because the coaches saw something in him (his demeanor and mental approach) that could help him at the next level. Pitchers in organizations all over baseball have better numbers than Phillips but are either kept down or reluctantly called up because they are deemed not ready for one reason or another. We rarely get this information.
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