The Shohei Ohtani Situation: What We Know, What We Don’t, What Comes Next

The first Dodgers season for outfielder/DH Shohei Ohtani got off to a completely unpredictable start last week, with news coming down that his longtime interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara, had been caught up in a gambling investigation that apparently showed that he had paid some or all of his debts using Ohtani’s money.

There is a lot about the preceding paragraph that is very vague, and that’s with good reason: There is far more we don’t know right now than what we do. With Ohtani slated to make his first public statements later Monday, now is a good time to step back, take a breath, and look at the situation — what we know, what we don’t, and what might come next.

What We Know

The Dodgers fired Mizuhara last week, between their first and second game in the season-opening Korea series, after news of the gambling and investigation broke. Mizuhara, who had worked with Ohtani (both as his interpreter and his training partner) since his arrival with the Los Angeles Angels in 2018, was accused of accumulating (at least) $4.5 million in gambling debts with an illegal bookmaker. The bookie, Matthew Bowyer, operates in California, where sports betting is illegal to begin with. Mizuhara has said he didn’t know sports betting was against California law, which (a) seems unlikely, but (b) is irrelevant, as ignorance of the law isn’t enough to absolve someone for breaking it.

After the news came down and Mizuhara was fired, he and an Ohtani representative both said Mizuhara had accumulated the debt and Ohtani had agreed to pay it down to help his friend. Shortly after that, though, Ohtani’s camp reversed course, saying that in fact Ohtani was the victim of “massive theft,” without specifying the exact nature of the theft.

MLB announced its intention to investigate the situation Friday, and Bowyer’s gambling operation remains under federal investigation. Ohtani is not expected to be placed on administrative leave or anything in that vein during that time.

Betting on baseball, of course, is the cardinal sin in the game, and if Ohtani is found to have engaged in that, his entire future in MLB becomes a big question mark. That said, there appears to be no current indication he has placed any bets at all, let alone bets on baseball. Mizuhara has said he absolutely did not bet on baseball, with his bets mostly being placed on overseas sports and basketball and professional and college football.

MLB rules do allow players to bet on sports other than baseball with legal bookmakers, but any bets through Bowyer would not qualify as that and would strictly be banned. On top of that, the league’s rulebook also says that “transactions” that are not “in the best interests of Baseball” shall be subject to penalties as well, and it would seem that payments made to an illegal bookie would qualify as that.

That said, we do not know for a fact that Ohtani authorized any such payments, and even if he proves to have done so, we do not know that he did so knowingly, as opposed to simply paying a loan shark or some other debt.

What We Don’t Know

Did Ohtani Place Any Bets?

There is currently no indication Ohtani was doing any of the betting. But that’s the most we can say. It’s possible further investigation will reveal he was involved in betting as well. So we don’t know, but best guess is that he did not.

How Did Mizuhara Get So Deep in Debt?

The translator’s salary has been reported to be in the mid six figures. Bookies aren’t in the business of letting people go into debt at several times over their salary, for obvious reasons. There have been reports Bowyer understood Ohtani to be covering Mizuhara’s debt, which would at least explain how he got so deep. That said, we don’t know if he understood that because Ohtani told him so himself, or if that came from a misrepresentation by Mizuhara.

Were Any Bets Placed on Baseball?

As stated above, it does not appear any of the bets placed by Mizuhara were on baseball. That has mostly come from him and from Bowyer, neither of whom is necessarily the most reliable source, so we’ll see if that changes. But as it stands, the best we can say is “It does not appear so.”

What Could Come of This for Ohtani?

It runs the gamut. If it turns out that Mizuhara lied and/or actually stole the money from Ohtani, the worst that could come for the superstar is the loss of the innocence of trust. If Mizuhara (who, it has since been discovered, also apparently lied about his education background) acted alone, got in deep with the bookie through misrepresentation and then ripped off his longtime friend to pay the debt off, Ohtani will probably be in the clear to move forward like nothing happened.

If it turns out Ohtani did know his payments were going to an illegal bookie (or, even worse, if he knew Mizuhara was gambling — and losing — all along), he could be in for a punishment. At that level, that punishment would be very unlikely to approach Pete Rose-ian levels, with the rulebook saying players placing bets with illegal bookies “shall be subject to such penalty as the Commissioner deems appropriate in light of the facts and circumstances of the conduct.” Obviously, that can be any number of things, but if Ohtani was involved in the betting in some form, he’s likely facing at least a short suspension.

If it turns out Ohtani was placing bets himself, the punishment would be much harsher. And, worst-case scenario, if those bets turn out to have been placed on baseball — worst of all Angels games — we could see the end of Ohtani’s MLB career. If he gets tied up in the federal investigation and is convicted of federal crimes, he could even lose his visa to work in America in the first place.

That’s all very theoretical right now, because as mentioned above, there is currently no expectation that Ohtani gambled at all, let alone on baseball. That could change if and when more information is uncovered, but right now, there is no reason to expect that to be the case.

The most likely explanation appears to be some combination of the first two options above: Mizuhara gambled, got in deep, and Ohtani covered for his friend, not knowing that doing so would run him afoul of the league’s rulebook and/or not knowing it was for illegal sports betting. That would explain why Mizuhara and Ohtani’s crisis coordinator both gave that as the initial story, and then, when they realized that wouldn’t absolve him, changed the story. Helpfully for Ohtani and the Dodgers (and, frankly, MLB), it’s also the explanation that keeps his hands the cleanest and renders any punishment light to nonexistent.

What Come Come of This for Mizuhara?

The interpreter’s days working in or around Major League Baseball are certainly over. He could even find himself serving significant jail time as part of the Bowyer investigation and/or if it turns out he did steal from Ohtani to pay down his debt.

What Comes Next?

We’ll hear Ohtani read a prepared statement Monday evening, expected to be at 5:45 p.m. ET. He is not expected to take questions, and his legal team has certainly gone over his statement with as many fine-toothed combs as a $700 million contract can buy, so the chances Monday’s statement gives any big revelation in any direction are slim.

Beyond that (and/or more digging by journalists), we’ll be waiting for the federal and MLB investigations to run their course. That could take any amount of time, from a few weeks to all the way into the offseason. Until more comes out or the league/government finish their investigations, expect Ohtani to keep going at the plate when the Dodgers season starts back up Thursday and beyond.