The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/8)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees betting breakdown

Blue Jays (+104), Yankees (-122)
Total: 10.0 runs
Alek Manoah (R) vs. Luis Gil (R)

Three things to know

• The Yankees middling offense needs a refresh – their .182 ISO and 25.4% whiff rate is ugly over the last month.
• The Jays are straight cooking — they’ve climbed to sixth in team wOBA (.336) over the same time frame.
• Can Alek Manoah keep dominating (26.4% strikeout rate)?

Best bets: The Jays need every game, and I think they take this last one. Take them in a F3/F5 bet.

Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Royals (-124), Orioles (+106)
Total: 9.5 runs
Mike Minor (L) vs. Matt Harvey (R)

Three things to know

• The Orioles rank in the bottom 10 in the league with a 25.3% strikeout rate and .313 wOBA.
• The Royals sport a league-worst .132 ISO over that same time frame.
• Camden Yards ranks in the top five in home run factor and park factor.

Best bets: Two low-scoring games in Camden? Weird, I know, but with these offenses, I wouldn’t be surprised if we make it three straight.

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown

Rays (-104), Red Sox (-112)
Total: 9.5 runs
Shane McClanahan (L) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (R)

Three things to know

• The Rays are the league’s best offense — they’ve slammed the ball for a .230 ISO and .352 wOBA.
• The Sox? Not too far behind. They have a .224 ISO and a league-best .366 wOBA.
• Can the best pitching matchup of the series shutdown these hot offenses?

Best bets: I know the offenses have been great, but I love the UNDER here.

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves betting breakdown

Nationals (+190), Braves (-230)
Total: 9.5 runs
Sean Nolin (L) vs. Touki Toussaint (R)

Three things to know

• The Braves have been a top-five offense in the last month — can they keep it up?
• The Nats don’t whiff much (21.2% strikeout rate), and their offense has picked it up lately (.334 wOBA).
• Touki Toussaint has allowed 2.08 HR/9 to lefties.

Best bets: Which Touki Toussaint shows up? I like the OVER here.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers betting breakdown

Phillies (+138), Brewers (-164)
Total: 8.0 runs
Kyle Gibson (R) vs. Freddy Peralta (R)

Three things to know

• These are two middling offenses — can either one score off these aces?
• The Phillies rank 18th in ISO (.174) but have struggled in wOBA (.309).
• The Brewers rank 20th in ISO (.170) but have been better in team wOBA (.337).

Best bets: The UNDER hit Tuesday, and I like it again. These offenses need to get in gear.

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs betting breakdown

Reds (-132), Cubs (+112)
Total: 9.0 runs
Vladimir Gutierrez (R) vs. Alec Mills (R)

Three things to know

• The Cubs gotta chill on these whiffs — they are a league-worst 29.1% in the last month.
• Their offense is better, however — logging a .323 wOBA (12th) over the same time frame.
• The Reds have pop (.199 ISO) but need to do a better job at the plate (.308 wOBA).

Best bets: With the pop in these offenses, expect plenty of Ks but also some homers and eye a homer prop or too. Mills has allowed 1.66 HR/9 to lefties (looking at you, Joey Votto).

Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown

Dodgers (-120), Cardinals (+102)
Total: 8.0 runs
Mitch White (R) vs. Adam Wainwright (R)

Three things to know

• The Cardinals have been better recently at the plate (.329 wOBA) — is this for real?
• I’m convinced the Dodgers could put anyone in their uniform and they would smash — they own marks of a .189 ISO in the last month, but it does come with some whiffs (24.9%).
• Adam Wainwright has a career 2.84 ERA in over 1,200 innings at Busch Stadium.

Best bets: The UNDER. The Cardinals cannot hit, and Wain-O is brilliant at home.

Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres betting breakdown

Angels (+215), Padres (-260)
Total: 8.0 runs
Jaime Barria (R) vs. Yu Darvish (R)

Three things to know

• What is wrong with the Angels? They are ugly at the plate, logging a .280 wOBA.
• San Diego cannot brag — they are second worst in wOBA at .286.
• Where has the power gone? Both teams rank in the bottom ten in ISO.

Best bets: I guess a F3/F5 on the Padres. These offenses are really bad, so an UNDER isn’t a terrible play, either.

Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics betting breakdown

White Sox (+150), Athletics (-178)
Total: 8.5 runs
Dallas Keuchel (L) vs. Frankie Montas (R)

Three things to know

• The Sox have been scorching at the plate, recording a .182 ISO and .342 wOBA.
• The A’s are in a free fall, and their offense is trying to keep them alive with a .184 ISO mark.
• Showcasing his nasty splitter, Frankie Montas has a 2.38 ERA in 55.2 innings pitched in the second half.

Best bets: I like the Athletics here, but somewhat expect them to find a way to lose this game.

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