The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/3)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees betting breakdown

Orioles (+190), Yankees (-230)
Total: 9.0 runs
John Means (L) vs. Nestor Cortes Jr. (L)

Three things to know

• Camden Yards leads the league in home run factor this season, while Yankee Stadium ranks 11th.
• John Means has struggled with the long ball all year — he has allowed 1.81 HR/9 this year.
• Over the last 30 days, the Yankees have been scorching, ranking fourth in team wOBA.

Best bets: This total feels too low — be the OVER.

New York Mets at Washington Nationals betting breakdown

Mets (-136), Nationals (+116)
Total: 9.0 runs
Rich Hill (L) vs. Sean Nolin (L)

Three things to know

• These are two bad offensive teams — can they pick it up?
• The Nats have logged only a .148 ISO and .322 wOBA recently.
• The Mets are just as bad, logging a .303 wOBA and .146 ISO.

Best bets: The UNDER — these teams cannot make good contact at the dish.

Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown

Athletics (+136), Blue Jays (-162)
Total: 9.0 runs
Sean Manaea (L) vs. Alek Manoah (R)

Three things to know

• Manoah has been everything as advertised — in his last two starts he’s logged a 2.19 ERA and over a K per inning.
• Will there be runs? The Athletics have been destroying the ball, posting a .328 wOBA and .180 ISO.
• The Jays have struggled a bit — a .170 ISO and a .323 wOBA however is far below their norms.

Best bets: I think this is gonna be a slugfest — I even think some home run props could be spicy.

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins betting breakdown

Phillies (-154), Marlins (+130)
Total: 7.5 runs
Kyle Gibson (R) vs. Jesús Luzardo (L)

Three things to know

• The Marlins have to fix this offense — they are absolutely egregious, logging a 26.3% strikeout rate and .302 wOBA.
• The Phillies? They’ve been smack in the middle in wOBA, strikeout rate, and ISO.
• Kyle Gibson has been unreal this season, logging a career year.

Best bets: While I know Gibson has been good, Jesús Luzardo has been bad. I like the Phillies in a F3/F5.

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Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds betting breakdown

Tigers (+160), Reds (-190)
Total: 9.5 runs
Tyler Alexander (L) vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (R)

Three things to know

• Great American Ballpark ranks third in home run factor this season.
• Cincinnati ranks in the top-10 in wOBA (.322) and ISO (.222).
• Detroit ranks in the bottom five in wOBA, ISO, and strikeout rate.

Best bets: A same-game parlay on the Reds. They are ready to go off.

Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown

Guardians (+154), Red Sox (-184)
Total: 8.5 runs
Cal Quantrill (R) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (R)

Three things to know

• The Guardians have been going beast mode at the dish — they clock in sixth in wOBA with a .336 mark.
• The Red Sox have led the league in team wOBA and ISO in the last month.
• Eovaldi has been the bright spot in this rotation, logging a 3.71 ERA and over a k per inning.

Best bets: Both pitchers are solid, but these offenses are hot. Take the over.

Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays betting breakdown

Twins (+172), Rays (-205)
Total: 8.5 runs
Randy Dobnak (R) vs. Michael Wacha (R)

Three things to know

• The Twins have fallen off a cliff lately, posting a .160 ISO and .308 wOBA in the last month.
• The Rays? They are still cookin’ — posting the third-best wOBA (.345) and a solid .220 ISO.
• Michael Wacha has posted HR/9 marks of worse than 1.80 in each of the last three years.

Best bets: The Rays — Dobnak stinks and the Rays are solid at the dish. Take Tampa on the ML or a F3/F5 bet.

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers betting breakdown

Cardinals (+160), Brewers (-190)
Total: 7.5 runs
Adam Wainwright (R) vs. Freddy Peralta (R)

Three things to know

• Freddy Peralta has recorded a 34.0% strikeout rate this season — will he be ready to go off the IL?
• Adam Wainwright has been almost unhittable at home this year — will the same go on the road?
• The Cardinals (.333) and Brewers (.331) both rank in the top-10 in wOBA.

Best bets: This total is too low. Take the over in Miller Park, which clocks in as a hitter friendly park.

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals betting breakdown

White Sox (-102), Royals (-116)
Total: 9.0 runs
Dallas Keuchel (L) vs. Kris Bubic (L)

Three things to know

• The White Sox have been murdering the ball at the plate, ranking fifth in team wOBA (.340).
• The Royals have been brutal — their .129 ISO in the last 30 days is the worst in baseball.
• Both arms sport whiff rates under 20% — this could be a fireworks show.

Best bets: The arms are awful and the Sox pound southpaws — take the OVER.

Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies betting breakdown

Braves (-162), Rockies (+136)
Total: 11.0 runs
Huascar Ynoa (R) vs. Antonio Senzatela (R)

Three things to know

• The Rockies have been outstanding in the last month, ranking top-five in nearly every statistical category.
• The Braves are neck and neck with the Rockies, logging a .187 ISO and .324 wOBA over the same time frame.
• Despite only a 16.2% strikeout rate, Antonio Senzatela does an outstanding job keeping the ball on the ground (52.0%).

Best bets: The OVER. I think this is an offensive bloodbath with two excellent offenses.

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Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown

Rangers (+168), Angels (-200)
Total: 7.5 runs
Glenn Otto (R) vs. Shohei Ohtani (R)

Three things to know

• The Rangers are awful at the plate. Awful. They own marks of a .296 wOBA and .149 ISO in the last month.
• The Angels? Somehow, worse. They are second worst in wOBA (.282).
• The Angels make a sneaky pitching target — they have a 25.5% strikeout rate in the last 30 days.

Best bets: Probably a stay away or a F3/F5 bet on the Angels.

Houston Astros at San Diego Padres betting breakdown

Astros (-134), Padres (+114)
Total: 9.0 runs
José Urquidy (R) vs. Jake Arrieta (R)

Three things to know

• Houston has a weird offensive profile — they don’t whiff much (20.1%), but they have little pop (.158 ISO).
• The Padres? They are similarly poor with a .149 ISO and .292 wOBA.
• Jake Arrieta‘s 6.14 FIP is in the worst 10 starting pitcher marks in baseball.

Best bets: Pound the Astros moneyline and F3/F5. I think this is mispriced.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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