The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/28)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Red Sox (-220), Orioles (+270)
Total: 9.0 runs
Chris Sale (L) vs. Bruce Zimmermann (L)

Three things to know

• The Red Sox need to lean on their .352 wOBA in order to make it into the playoffs.
• Camden Yards ranks inside the t-10 in terms of park factor and HR factor.
• The Orioles have fallen off fast with a .306 wOBA and 25.9% strikeout rate.

Best bets: This is an easy same-game parlay here on the Red Sox.

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown

Yankees (+110), Blue Jays (-130)
Total: 9.0 runs
Jameson Taillon (R) vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (L)

Three things to know

• This series has massive playoff implications. Who can take it?
• Toronto has been death row to pitch to — a league-leading .366 wOBA, including a .234 ISO.
• The Yankees mediocre offense remains, well, mediocre — they are 14th in wOBA and ISO for the last 30 days.

Best bets: The Rogers Centre is gonna be rocking — bet the Jays in a F3/F5 with the better pitcher on their side.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves betting breakdown

Phillies (+112), Braves (-132)
Total: 7.5 runs
Zack Wheeler (R) vs. Charlie Morton (R)

Three things to know

• Atlanta has been solid at the dish recently, logging a .212 ISO and .322 wOBA.
• The Phillies? They rank in the top five in both marks, ahead of the Braves.
• Can Zack Wheeler take home the NL Cy Young?

Best bets: I like Wheeler to make a statement — take the juice on him and the Phillies.

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown

Brewers (-118), Cardinals (+100)
Total: 7.5 runs
Brandon Woodruff (R) vs. Adam Wainwright (R)

Three things to know

• The Cardinals have won 16 straight and 18 of 19.
• Adam Wainwright has a sub-3.00 ERA in over 1,200 innings at Busch Stadium.
• The Cardinals have been on fire at the plate, posting a .347 wOBA and .219 ISO.

Best bets: Just bet on the Birds and make your life easy.

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers betting breakdown

Angels (-110), Rangers (-106)
Total: 9.0 runs
Packy Naughton (L) vs. A.J. Alexy (R)

Three things to know

• The Angels are fifth worst in team wOBA at a .296 mark.
• The Rangers? They are third worst with a .294 wOBA, and a league-worst .125 ISO.
• Can either of these rookie arms stand out?

Best bets: The UNDER. These teams are horrible at the plate.

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox betting breakdown

Reds (+160), White Sox (-190)
Total: 9.0 runs
Riley O’Brien (R) vs. Reynaldo López (R)

Three things to know

• Riley O’Brien makes his big-league debut — can he curb the 1.28 HR/9 allowed this year?
• The Reds’ late-season soon can be blamed on their .304 wOBA in the last month.
• The Sox .325 wOBA showcases that they have been far more solid at the dish.

Best bets: The Reds really don’t have much to play for — take the Sox.

Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros betting breakdown

Rays (+116), Astros (-136)
Total: 9.0 runs
Michael Wacha (R) vs. José Urquidy (R)

Three things to know

• The Rays have really found their gear at the plate, logging a .200 ISO and .337 wOBA.
• Not to be outdone, the ‘Stros have recorded a .187 ISO and .342 wOBA.
• Is this an ALCS preview?

Best bets: With the pitching advantage, I like the Astros in a F3/F5 bet.

Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies betting breakdown

Nationals (+116), Rockies (-136)
Total: 11.5 runs
Patrick Corbin (L) vs. Kyle Freeland (L)

Three things to know

• The Nationals have been a much-improved offense — over the last month, they have logged a .341 wOBA.
• Surprisingly, the Rockies have been far worse, posting a .310 wOBA and .177 ISO.
• These southpaws have struggled in 2021 — who can best the other?

Best bets: The UNDER hit Monday, but with two poor arms, I expect the opposite here.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants betting breakdown

Diamondbacks (+220), Giants (-270)
Total: 7.5 runs
Luke Weaver (R) vs. Logan Webb (R)

Three things to know

• Logan Webb has a sub-3.00 FIP, among the league’s best pitchers no one talks about.
• The Diamondbacks .285 wOBA is second worst, and their .144 ISO is third-worst.
• The Giants .351 wOBA (third best) has been one of the best offenses all year.

Best bets: The Giants have to keep pace with the Dodgers — take them on the moneyline.

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners betting breakdown

Athletics (-110), Mariners (-108)
Total: 8.0 runs
Chris Bassitt (R) vs. Tyler Anderson (L)

Three things to know

• The Athletics’ .321 wOBA and .158 ISO aren’t great by any stretch.
• The Mariners have logged a .311 wOBA and a .166 ISO over the last month.
• The fact that Chris Bassitt is even pitching after a nasty head injury is impressive.

Best bets: With slim playoff hopes on the line, can the Mariners take this game? They smashed Oakland Monday, and I like them here.

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown

Padres (+160), Angels (-190)
Total: 7.5 runs
Yu Darvish (R) vs. Walker Buehler (R)

Three things to know

• The Dodgers need to wake up at the plate — their .312 wOBA is only 18th.
• The Padres have been awful lately, logging a .309 wOBA and .151 ISO.
• The Padres have limited the whiffs, recording a 19.2% strikeout rate in the same time frame.

Best bets: The Dodgers have to beat this free-falling Padres team to win the West. Bet on them.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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