The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (7/5)


Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece!

Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates

Braves (-198), Pirates (+166)
Total: 9.0 runs
Max Fried (L) vs. Chase De Jong (R)

After finding themselves with a more than healthy deficit in the NL East, the Braves have clawed their way back into contention in the divisional race and now sit only 3.5 games. They will turn the ball to Max Fried, who’s dealt with some injury issues. The Braves have really struggled with injury in this slot — Mike Soroka re-tore his Achilles tendon and Kyle Muller now is down with an injury.

Best bets: With Fried returning to form, and de Jong struggling, a F3/F5 bet on the Braves makes a lot of sense.

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

White Sox (-198), Twins (+166)
Total: 10.0 runs
Dylan Cease (R) vs. Bailey Ober (R)

After a nice start, like so many other rookies, there’s been some growing pains for Bailey Ober. During the last two weeks, Ober has gotten bombed for a 10.57 ERA and 1.83 WHIP over 7.2 innings pitched. That’s not good, as he faces a White Sox offense that is getting some solid additions from young bats like Gavin Sheets and Jake Burger.

Best bets: Like the first game, this is a mega pound for the White Sox in all forms.

Milwaukee Brewers at NY Mets

Brewers (-136), Mets (+116)
Total: 7.0 runs
Brandon Woodruff (R) vs. Tylor Megill (R)

With so much volatility in fantasy baseball this season, one constant for the betting markets, DFS and season-long players has been the brilliance, quite frankly, of the entire Brewers pitching staff. Brandon Woodruff has maken the true leap from strong arm to ace. He’s logged a 1.87 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 101 innings pitched, including 119 innings.

Best bets: If this game were in Milwaukee, I’d be more tempted to play the over. But Tylor Megill has been pretty solid in his own right. I’d either stay away or play the under. 

Cleveland Indians at Tampa Bay Rays

Indians (+168), Rays (-200)
Total: 8.5 runs
Logan Allen (L) vs, Rich Hill (L)

The over/under of 8.5 runs is odd to me. The Indians face solid veteran Rich Hill, and they also are really bad against southpaws. They clock in third in team strikeout rate on the season (27.5%) and sport a pretty ugly .299 wOBA mark as a team. This one seems to be destined for a low scoring affair.

Best bets: The under, as the Rays struggled against lefties and Dick Mountain has been excellent.

Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs

Phillies (+122), Cubs (-144)
Total: 11.0 runs
Matt Moore (L) vs. Zach Davies (R)

I feel like there’s maybe something I don’t know here. While he was very rough early on in the season, like teammate Kyle Hendricks, Zach Davies has really turned his 2021 season around. Over the last month, spanning 28.2 innings pitched, Davies has been very solid with a 3.14 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. 

Best bets: The under. The Cubs are struggling a bit offensively, and Davies has been good lately.

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers

Tigers (+136), Rangers (-162)
Total: 9.0 runs
Wily Peralta (R) vs. Kolby Allard (L)

Seeing Wily Peralta listed as the starter truly means that this is a bullpen game — and that’s a very bad thing for under betters. Peralta is likely only going to pitch 1-2 innings, and then he will turn things over to a bullpen with a 5.04 ERA, fourth-worst in baseball. That’s not good for a Rangers offense that has been humming a bit lately.

Best bets: The over and a Rangers moneyline bet. The Rangers may cover this thing on their own. 

Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals

Reds (+110), Royals (-130)
Total: 10.0 runs
Vladimir Gutierrez (R) vs. Mike Minor (L)

There’s no one that loves Vladimir Gutierrez as much as me. But the dude has to command the strike zone a bit better, or he’s in major trouble. After getting pounded by the Padres, which isn’t the worst thing in the world, he now has walked 19 batters in 38.1 innings pitched this season. That is bad for a team with a very healthy plate discipline in the Royals.

Best bets: Both pitchers have struggled here. I would target an over in the first five.

Boston Red Sox at LA Angels

Red Sox (-108), Angels (-108)
Total: 10.0 runs
Martín Pérez (L) vs. José Suarez (L)

As hefty as this total is, this could be a run scoring matchup. Both teams against lefties this year rank inside the top-10, ranking third (LAA, .332) and ninth (BOS, .328) respectively in terms of team wOBA. Martín Pérez has been knocked around a bit, and while Suarez has been solid, he hasn’t been stretched out past five innings.

Best bets: The over, and just for fun, slam a Shohei Ohtani prop in there.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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