Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece.
Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox
Orioles (+194), White Sox (-235)
Total: 8.5 runs
Bruce Zimmermann (L) vs. Dylan Cease (R)
21. The last 21 times the White Sox have faced a lefty, they have won. That’s kind of insane. And while Bruce Zimmermann is no John Means, that’s still freaking impressive. Zimmerman has to work on his control and command, as his 1.58 WHIP doesn’t lead you to a whole lot of surprises with a 5.59 ERA. He gave up a grand slam his last outing, and that’s where he’s really getting hammered.
Best bets: F5 Sox. I would pour all kinds of bets in on Chicago, as this is a massive mismatch.
St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Cardinals (+124), Diamondbacks (-146)
Total: 9.5 runs
Carlos Martínez (R) vs. Matt Peacock (R)
This could be a little bit interesting, as Matt Peacock, who has primarily worked as a bullpen arm, is going to start. He could simply be an opener, but that’s a tough strategy to kick off a series. Peacock hasn’t really flashed elite strikeout upside (he’s been under 9 K/9 in every stop in the minors), so this could lead to be a bit of a problem. Martinez, meanwhile, has transformed as a pitcher — he owns a 50.3% ground-ball rate, but he has the lowest strikeout rate among qualified starters (71) at 12.5%.
Best bets: There is nothing that sticks out to me here other than maybe an under bet. These are two offenses that are not great.
Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Angels (+128), Athletics (-152)
Total: 7.5 runs
Shohei Ohtani (R) vs. Chris Bassitt (R)
It’s Shohei day! And, with any luck, we will get to see this unique talent both pitch and hit. What a gem — and while Ohtani will get the publicity, Chris Bassitt has been downright outstanding so far this season. The sinker baller has elite control and command, as evidenced by his 1.10 WHIP, and this season, he’s upped the whiffs — he’s got 65 in 61 innings pitched.
Best bets: Nighttime games in Oakland surpress runs, so either the under or a moneyline bet on Oakland seems obvious.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Rockies (+102), Mets (-116)
Total: 8.5 runs
Kolby Allard (L) vs. Chris Flexen (R)
Two of the league’s worst offenses take the field in an AL West showdown, and while the Mariners had hoped to get a shot in the arm by promoting Jarred Kelenic, that hasn’t happened quite yet. Seattle’s league-worst .282 wOBA seems like a tantalizing spot for Kolby Allard, who fills in for Kyle Gibson while he misses a start with a groin injury. But the problem with Texas is the bullpen — if Allard can only go 40-50 pitches, they will turn the ball over to the league’s 10th-worst bullpen in terms of ERA. Combine that with Chris Flexen, who has stunk, and we have a recipe for some runs.
Best bets: I love the over here. Neither pitcher has been particularly strong and while the Mainers have one of the league’s worst offenses, even they can get right here.
