The basics of betting on baseball

Betting on baseball can be extremely exciting. While it may not have the fast-paced nature as some of the other sports like football or basketball, it presents a unique kind of “sweat.” A game on the line in the ninth inning can be like no other and thus has entrenched many into the art of betting this sport.

Today I’m breaking down the art of betting on baseball. If you’ve never bet the sport before or are looking to get into betting overall, this guide should help you begin your journey.

Betting the moneyline

This is the most popular way to bet not only baseball but all sports. Betting the moneyline is simply picking who you think will win that game. For this example, we’ll use a game between the Astros and Angels as an example of what you would see on your sportsbook.

Los Angeles Angels: +190
Houston Astros: -250

This shows us that the Angels (with the plus sign) are the underdog, while the minus-sign Astros are the favorites. If you’re betting on the favorite, your return, should you win that bet, would be a lot smaller than if you bet the underdog. For example, a $100 bet on the Astros would earn you a payout of $140 (including your initial $100).If you were to bet the Angels and they win, you’d return a much greater return of $290, as it was an outcome the sportsbook did not expect.

Betting on the moneyline is a great way to get your feet wet in the world of sports betting and is a way to hopefully help build your bankroll simply by choosing a winner of a particular game. This will also serve as a way to help you read and understand lines, as odds throughout your sportsbook will use the same type of numbers to lay out the odds and lines for all particular bets.

Recent moneyline trends

While fortunes can change in a hurry in the MLB, the following three teams have had the best moneyline record 2017-2019:

Houston Astros: 336-194 (0.634 winning percentage)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 322-201 (0.616 winning percentage)
New York Yankees: 308-205 (0.600 winning percentage)

The following three times have had the worst moneyline record 2017-2019:

Detroit Tigers: 175-310 (.361 winning percentage)
Baltimore Orioles: 176-310 (.362 winning percentage)
Kansas City Royals: 197-289 (.405 winning percentage)

In 2017-2019, 14 of the 30 teams were profitable (more than 50%) at covering the moneyline.

Betting the run line

If you’re familiar with betting the spread in football or basketball, you’ll quickly understand how to bet the run line. In football, you may see a line that looks like this:

New England Patriots: -7.5
New York Jets: +7.5

Per these numbers, the Patriots are 7.5-point favorites over the Jets, meaning they’d have to win the game by eight points to win your bet. The Jets, meanwhile, would either have to win the game outright or lose by seven or fewer.

In baseball, you’ll see much smaller numbers, as baseball is a lower-scoring sport. With that in mind, you’ll likely see numbers very similar to the following:

Chicago White Sox: -1.5
Kansas City Royals: +1.5

With the same idea as football, this represents baseball's idea of a spread. If you were to bet the White Sox run line, they would need to win by at least two runs for you to win your bet. Whereas the Royals would either need to win the game outright or not lose by more than one run. This gives you an opportunity to bet on a team you think could win by a particular margin or take advantage of a team that is undervalued.

Recent run line trends

The following teams were best at covering the run line in 2017-2019:

New York Yankees: 283-230 (covered 55.2%)
Oakland Athletics: 261-227 (covered 53.5%)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 260-230 (covered 53.1%)

The following teams were the worst at covering the run line in 2017-2019:

Baltimore Orioles: 213-273 (covered 43.8%)
Detroit Tigers: 221-265 (covered 45.6%)
Toronto Blue Jays: 227-259 (covered 46.7%)

In 2017-2019, 13 teams have been profitable at covering the run line.

Betting the total

This is a great way to lay some money down on the combined score of a game. Let’s say the Yankees and Red Sox are playing and your sportsbook has a total that looks like this:

Over: 9.5
Under: 9.5

What you’re deciding here is if you like the combined score to be either over or under that total. If you believe this could be a high-scoring game, you should be inclined to bet on the over. If you think this could be a low-scoring game, you would take the under.

Many factors go into determining the total. Where the game is being played is a big one and should always be considered. For example, a game at Coors Field — the best hitters park in all of baseball — will almost always see totals in double-digits. Meanwhile, a place like Oracle Park in San Francisco is as a pitchers park and can see lower-than-average totals. Lineups and bullpens are also taken into consideration, so it’s always best to research these stats before making your final decision.

Recent total trends

The following teams were the best at hitting the over on the game total in 2017-2019:

Miami Marlins: 243-215-27 (covered 53.1%)
New York Mets: 238-212-36 (covered 52.9%)
New York Yankees: 259-237-17 (covered 52.2%)

The following teams were the worst at covering the over in 2017-2019:

Colorado Rockies: 212-258-22 (covered 45.1%)
Milwaukee Brewers: 218-263-17 (covered 45.3%)
Cleveland Indians: 212-255-27 (covered 45.4%)

Between 2017-2019, five teams have been profitable at covering the over on the game total.