Sunday Night Baseball Betting Breakdown

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Sunday Night Baseball preview featuring our favorite or best MLB bet of the night. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, Eric Pauly provides his pick.

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Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees 

Yankees -175, Red Sox +150, O/U 7.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
SP: Brayan Bello (R) vs. Nestor Cortes (L)

Believe it or not, we have reached the penultimate Sunday Night Baseball featured matchup of the 2022 season. The New York Yankees have already punched their ticket to the postseason, and tonight they host the Boston Red Sox, who are on the brink of elimination. 

Boston is currently 11 games back in the AL Wild Card, and while they have not been mathematically eliminated, their season seems to be doomed. Boston is 72-79 on the season with a -40 run differential, so it is safe to say this team is not talented enough to play October baseball. 

The Yankees have had the Red Sox’s number all season long, and tonight these two teams will close out their season series. The Yankees are 12-6 straight up against Boston this season, but the Red Sox have covered the run line in 12 of those 18 games. However, I do not expect this to be the case tonight. 

Nestor Cortes will take the mound for the Yankees tonight at home. In 26 starts this season, Cortes is 10-4 with a 2.67 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 3.28 FIP. This will be his third time facing this Red Sox team this season but the first time he will face them at Yankee Stadium. In his last outing against Boston, Cortes allowed one run on three hits with seven strikeouts in five innings of work. 

Cortes has been a better pitcher at home this season. In 74.1 innings of work, Cortes has a 2.30 ERA, .178 batting average against, .273 slugging percentage against, a 2.90 FIP, 0.89 WHIP and a 25% strikeout percentage. The Yankees are 10-3 straight up in all of Cortes’ home starts this season. 

Rookie righty Brayan Bello will make the start for Boston. In 11 appearances this season, Bello is 2-6 with a 4.75 ERA, 2.98 FIP and 1.73 WHIP. Bello started against the Yankees earlier this month and allowed three runs on six hits in five innings of work in a Red Sox loss. 

In his limited action on the road this season, Bello has not been great. In those 19 innings, Bello has a 5.68 ERA, .329 batting average against, .434 slugging percentage against, 3.64 FIP and 1.95 WHIP. Boston is 1-4 on the moneyline in Bello’s five road starts this season. 

Boston will always come to play when facing the Yankees, but tonight is just a total mismatch for the Sox. The Yankees have caught fire once again, Boston is surely doomed and tonight will be a good night for Yankee fans. I have this game priced at NYY -1.5 +100, so there is a ton of value in NYY -1.5 +125. 

Bet: Yankees RL -1.5 +125 (DraftKings Sportsbook)