StatHero MLB picks 6/23

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Stat Hero MLB picks for today

Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Wednesday’s slate.

StatHero MVP

Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.

Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics

He’s becoming a regular on the list lately and for good reason with how hot he’s been at the plate, hitting .411 with six doubles and seven homers this month. Olson destroys right-handed pitching with a .378 wOBA, .277 ISO and 47% hard contact rate since 2019. Mike Foltynewicz has been terrible in his last three starts, giving up 16 earned runs in 11.1 innings. He’s allowed 17 home runs on the season, which is tied for the second most in baseball. Since 2019, Foltynewicz is struggling with left-handed hitters, giving up a .363 wOBA, .272 ISO and 39.8% hard contact rate. Olson is crushing Foltynewicz’s four main pitches this season with a wRC+ of at least 125.

Michael Brantley, Houston Astros

Arguably the hottest hitter in the game right now with his fourth multi-hit game in a row and ninth of the month leading to an incredible .510 batting average this month. He kills right-handed pitchers with a .399 wOBA, .214 ISO and 41% hard contact rate since 2019. Thomas Eshelman has made just one start this season since being called up from the minors. In his career he is struggling with left-handed hitters, allowing a .369 wOBA and .254 ISO. 

Juan Soto, Washington Nationals

Soto has been feeling it at the plate as well with three multi-hit games in a row. An absolute problem in the heart of the lineup, especially against right-handed pitching with a .416 wOBA, .261 ISO and 42.4% hard contact rate since 2019. Vince Velasquez has given up three or more earned runs in three of his last four starts and has not pitched past the fifth inning in any of them. Left-handed hitters have enjoyed hitting against him for a .358 wOBA, .211 ISO and 40.5% hard contact rate since 2019. Soto matches up well with Velasquez, hitting his three main pitches well with a career wRC+ of at least 122. Great value for an MVP at $8,700 as well. 

StatHero flex pick

J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox

After an incredible month of May with an ERA of just 0.78, Rich Hill has allowed four earned runs in back-to-back starts to the Mariners and Orioles. Martinez will be the best hitter he has seen in a while and I expect him to take advantage with his .431 wOBA, .327 ISO and 39% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching since 2019. Hill is basically a two-pitch pitcher, throwing his fastball and curveball around 90% of the time this season. Martinez has hit both of those pitches extremely well throughout his career with a 138 wRC+.

Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros

One of the best young hitters in baseball, Alvarez has gotten on base nine games in a row. He has dominated right-handed pitching his career to the tune of a .410 wOBA, .289 ISO and 43.7% hard contact rate. He also matches up well with Eshelman, hitting his main pitches with a career wRC+ of at least 165. I don’t love paying up for the $14,000 price tag but he is in a great spot to justify the high price.

Austin Meadows, Tampa Bay Rays

Meadows can’t seem to get off the struggle bus, but this is a good spot for him to break out. Since, 2019 Meadows has been fantastic against right-handed pitching with a .381 wOBA, .284 ISO and 42% hard contact rate. Garrett Richards’ fairy tale first half is coming to an end, giving up 11 earned runs and 26 hits in his last three starts. Left-handed hitters have fared well against Richards since 2019 with a .347 wOBA and .171 ISO. Meadows 47.9% fly ball rate against righties should counter Richards’ ground ball tendencies. Throughout his career Meadows has hit each of Richards’ pitches well with a 110 wRC+.

Hunter Renfroe, Boston Red Sox

After a rough stretch, Renfroe may be heating up at the plate with hits in five of his last six games, including two homers. Since 2019, Renfroe has crushed left-handed pitching with a .370 wOBA, .309 ISO and 45.1% hard contact rate. He can focus on Hill’s fastball and curveball, which bodes well for him since he’s hitting both pitches for a 114 and 143 wRC+ respectively this season. 

Carlos Correa, Houston Astros

Having his best month of the season, Correa is hitting .338 with six home runs, including three long balls in his last seven games. Correa is one of the best right-handed hitting shortstops in baseball, hitting righties with .359 wOBA, .242 ISO and 39.2% hard contact rate since 2019. Right-handed hitters have not been kind to Eshelman in his career, smacking him around for a .354 wOBA, .260 ISO and 45.5% fly ball rate. 

StatHero sleeper

Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates

One of the best values at $4,600 really helps you fit in some of the more expensive bats. He is a really safe option as well considering he has reached base safely in every game this month and is only striking out 16% (well below average) of the time this season. Hayes is doing a lot of damage to right-handed pitching in his career with a .390 wOBA, .250 ISO and 44.4% hard contact rate. Dylan Cease has allowed five or more earned runs in three of his last six starts.

Akil Baddoo, Detroit Tigers

After a tough stretch, the rookie appears to be back on track at the plate, riding an eight-game hitting streak with three doubles and three multi-hit games. Against right-handed pitching this season he has a .407 wOBA, .269 ISO and 38% hard contact rate. John Gant has been roughed up for 15 earned runs on four homers in his last three starts. I like his upside leading off at $6,800. 

Manny Piña, Milwaukee Brewers

Piña is someone who should only be in consideration when he’s facing a lefty, and luckily he is doing that Wednesday, and at $6,800 he is more than affordable. Since 2019, he is hitting lefties very well with a .368 wOBA, .242 ISO and 38.4% hard contact rate. Caleb Smith is a solid pitcher but does give up a lot of power and fly balls to right-handed hitters (.233 ISO and 54.8% fly ball rate since 2019). Plus three of Piña’s four home runs this season have come against lefties. 

Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.

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