StatHero MLB picks 4/14


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Stat Hero MLB Picks for today

Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for the Wednesday slate.

StatHero MVP

Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low strikeout rate.

Juan Soto, Washington Nationals

Opposing pitcher Adam Wainwright struggles mightily with left-handed hitters, since 2018 allowing a .346 wOBA, .193 ISO and almost 38% hard contact rate. Although it’s a small sample size, six of his seven earned runs this season have come against left-handed hitters so plug in Soto with confidence. 

Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies

David Peterson was lit up for six earned runs in four innings against this same team April 7. Hoskins homered off him then in the first inning but also has two doubles and another home run off him in his career. The lefty killer should be one of your top choices for MVP.

Manny Machado, San Diego Padres

Machado and the Padres get to face Tyler Anderson, who is someone you always want to attack. Since 2018, he is giving up an ISO over .200 to both sides of the plate and is primarily a fly ball pitcher. Machado is a lefty masher (.407 wOBA, .288 ISO since 2018) in great form with an eight-game hit streak.

Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers

He’s been on fire all season, and I don’t think he cools down here. Jon Gray is a good pitcher, but he still gives up a lot of hard contact away from Coors Field, especially to lefties (40.1%). Add in Seager’s history against Gray (9-24, 3 2B, HR, 1.125 OPS), and I’m willing to eat the price tag.

StatHero flex pick

Mike Moustakas, Cincinnati Reds

Johnny Cueto has impressed to start the season, but this Reds offense will be the best he has faced. He induces a lot fewer ground balls to left-handed hitters and is giving up a .195 ISO to that side of the plate. Moustakas has the platoon advantage with an astounding 49% flyball rate. Although it’s a small sample, he has good history against Cueto (4-8, 2 2B, HR). He hit a home run Tuesday night and I like his chances to do it again.

DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees

Opposing pitcher Ross Stripling has had a rough start to the year, and it won’t be any easier for him facing the Yankees again. He’s a reverse-splits pitcher, giving up a huge .222 ISO to right-handed hitters since 2018. LeMahieu has fared very well vs. Stripling in his career (7-19) and that should continue here. Plus, he could easily hit one out in the minor league ballpark this game will be played in.

Kyle Schwarber, Washington Nationals

Another lefty to attack Wainwright with. All of the same reasons above apply here, plus Schwarber is off to a great start with back-to-back two-hit games since returning from the IL due to the Nationals’ COVID-19 outbreak. He also has solid history against Wainwright in his career (5-20, 2B, HR). 

Gary Sánchez, New York Yankees

Another Yankee makes the list, except this one hits a lot more fly balls to combat Stripling’s ground ball rate. Sánchez also homered off Stripling in his first start April 3. 

Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals

He has really started to heat up with six hits in two games against the Angels. Griffin Canning is a big-time fly-ball pitcher giving up over 40% hard contact to right handed hitters since 2018. Perez is a good hitter against right-handed pitching with a .341 wOBA, .236 ISO and 46% hard contact rate since 2018. 

StatHero sleeper

Mike Zunino, Tampa Bay Rays

It’s been boom or bust so far this season for Zunino, with two of his four hits being home runs. Kohei Arihara has really struggled to start the season and showing signs of being a fly ball pitcher. Zunino hits tons of fly balls (over 47% for his career). At only $5,900 when writing this, he’s too cheap to ignore.

Max Kepler, Minnesota Twins

A slow start in the power department for Kepler may be coming to an end against Nathan Eovaldi. Giving up a .214 ISO to left-handed hitters since 2018, combined with Kepler’s .238 ISO and more than 47% fly ball rate against right-handed pitching and the recipe is there. He also has hit two home runs in eight career at-bats vs. Eovaldi. Unfortunately, the weather looks gross, so keep an eye on that. 

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