Small Ball: Fantasy Baseball Game Theory: Winning on the Edges

We are less than two months away from the end of the fantasy baseball season. 

Like Bart Simpson writing on the chalkboard, this sentence is worth repeating in your head 10-15 times. Every decision we make from here until the end of September is much more significant than decisions we made back in May or June.

Struggling players should no longer be allowed to drag down our lineups. Red-hot players should at least be considered, regardless of track record, if you are targeting specific categories. Stashing injured players isn’t worth it anymore, unless it’s an extreme circumstance (cough, cough, Kyle Tucker).

The point is, fantasy baseball managers are running out of time to make a move in the standings. I watched a long-distance Olympic swimming event the other day, and one of the athletes clearly had more juice left in the tank than any of his competitors. But even with that final burst, he finished less than a second behind the gold-medal winner because he waited just a tad too long for his last push. Players like Bo Bichette are the shackles on your ankles preventing you from making that last surge in the standings. It’s why I (unfortunately) had to cut ties with him in all three of my NFBC leagues, despite using high draft capital on the Blue Jays shortstop.

In today’s Small Ball article, I’d like to focus on the edges. The All-Star break has come and gone. So has the trade deadline. We know who’s producing and who isn’t. We know where Garrett Crochet will reside the rest of the way. We have no more closer questions – at least in terms of landing spots. 

The only way to outperform your competition in these last seven weeks is to win on the edges. The shrewd move that gives you 2-3 weeks of elite production is so much more significant, because 2-3 weeks of elite production down the stretch accounts for 28-42% of what’s left on the calendar. A 2- to 3-week power burst by a player back in May certainly helps, but that’s just a microcosm in a long season worth of counting stats.

Which players will help us on the edges? I’ll discuss that and more below. Keep in mind, these are players who are widely available in most leagues – including some NFBC leagues. I’m not saying these are must-add players who are guaranteed to win you a championship. They are simply players worth adding to the end of your roster or ones who could pay dividends in a best-case scenario. That’s playing the edges!

Dylan Moore, Seattle Mariners

If you read the intro above, you saw me mention Bo Bichette. He just wasn’t producing, and once he went on the shelf (again) with a troubling calf injury, he needed to be cut. Moves like that hurt you to the core. Bichette was the player I was most exposed to in NFBC drafts this season. I expected close to a .300 batting average with 100-plus runs, 20-plus home runs and some stolen bases. Instead, I got a .223 average with four homers, 30 RBIs, 29 runs and five swipes. That came in a 79-game sample. I mentioned he had a few injury stints, but that’s close to half a season worth of games. Absolutely brutal.

Typically, when you flop that hard on a high-draft capital player, your spot in the standings will suffer. Luckily, I’ve remained in contention in all three of those leagues. And because of that, the Bichette replacement became a huge decision. I grabbed Dylan Moore for $4 in my 15-teamer back on July 14 hoping to utilize him if Bichette continued to struggle. Well, that decision became an easy one once Bichette landed back on the IL. The decision was also made with stolen bases in mind. At the time, Moore wasn’t playing everyday. But he had 17 stolen bases and had shown some power in spurts. I was at Yankee Stadium May 21 when he cranked two homers in a victory over New York.

Fast-forward to now, and Moore has been a critical piece of my starting lineup. I can’t take all the credit for this shrewd move, because J.P. Crawford was still active July 14 when I made the pickup. However, once Crawford went down with an injury of his own, Moore has become an everyday player for the Mariners – a team that is still fighting for a division and a potential wild-card spot. He’s a stolen base threat waiting to happen with occasional power and a relatively sturdy place in the middle-to-back end of the Seattle lineup. Entering August, he was still sub-85% rostered in 15-team leagues and close to 35% rostered in 12-teamers. 

He’s a sneaky player I’d look to acquire, especially if you can improve in the stolen base category. If you’re secure at stolen bases, I’d pass unless it’s a very deep league. But still, he needs to be rostered everywhere.

Jake McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks

I patted myself on the back with Moore above. Now it’s time to smack myself on the head for dropping Jake McCarthy in several leagues (after holding him for most of the season!).

“Rake,” I mean Jake, McCarthy, has been on and off most NFBC rosters throughout the season. We know what McCarthy provides. He’s mostly a slap hitter who will steal bases at a high clip, create chaos and at times score a handful of runs. The caveat? He wasn’t playing everyday. And with Alek Thomas activated off the IL, the conventional wisdom was that McCarthy, who already was a part-time player, would find it even more difficult to crack the lineup.

Not so fast. While we don’t think about defense as often in fantasy baseball, McCarthy’s outfield defense has been superb. So superb, that he’s been subbed in as a defensive replacement even when he’s out of the lineup. That matters. However, the biggest reason why McCarthy has become close to an everyday player is his ability to thrive in lefty-lefty matchups – unlike the vast majority of big-leaguers.

McCarthy absolutely owns left-handed pitching, while his primary competition for playing time, Thomas, has been dreadful against southpaws. Entering Thursday, McCarthy is hitting .360 (!!!) off lefties in 75 ABs, while Thomas sits at .143 in his 21 ABs.

McCarthy has essentially been Ty Cobb against lefties this year. Corbin Carroll hits near the bottom of the order against left-handers, and Thomas sits against most southpaws, which has opened the door for McCarthy to hit in a premium spot in an Arizona lineup that is (quietly?) first in runs scored this season. Yes, first in MLB entering Thursday. I hope my competition doesn’t read this, because I’ll be trying to re-acquire McCarthy in several leagues.

Juan Yepez, Washington Nationals

Here’s a rule of thumb. If the St. Louis Cardinals rid themselves of an outfield prospect, pick them up on their next team. Juan Yepez might not win you a league, but he’s played virtually every single day since being recalled from AAA July 5. Even crazier, he’s never hit lower than fifth in the order since July 12.

The Nationals were trade deadline sellers. Jesse Winker, Lane Thomas and Eddie Rosario are no longer going to be on the lineup card. But Yepez will. And for a big guy, he really knows how to control the bat. He has an elite 15.4% K rate and has some pop that could show in these final weeks of the season. If nothing else, he’s going to see a premium lineup spot with a chance to produce in several categories, and he’s still available in many leagues.

Michael Lorenzen, Kansas City Royals

It feels like Michael Lorenzen is always a trendy pickup in fantasy baseball year after year. And after posting solid numbers with the Texas Rangers in their rotation, he was firmly entrenched on most NFBC rosters. The underlying problem with Lorenzen is that his advanced numbers paint a pretty bleak picture. His K/9 is at 6.71, his walk rate is below average, his strand rate is at 81% and negative regression feels inevitable. 

While I don’t believe Lorenzen is out of the woods, there was plenty of uncertainty when he was dealt to the Royals near the trade deadline. He was hanging out on some waiver wires during that period. Yet that uncertainty went away when Alec Marsh was demoted to AAA and Lorenzen earned the fifth spot in the Royals rotation. His first start in KC blue went pretty well. He tossed 5.1 innings of one-run ball with five punchouts.

Lorenzen’s landing spot is what has me somewhat optimistic about his potential the rest of the way. The Royals have a 3.79 team ERA (ninth in MLB) and have gotten the most out of Brady Singer, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha this season – and of course, another great year from Cole Ragans.

While Kauffman Stadium has actually been a hitter-friendly park this year, that’s mostly because of the Royals offense – not their opponents. The Royals possess a +94 run differential and have allowed the fifth-fewest runs in baseball this season.

Because Lorenzen earned a spot in the rotation, and the Royals have a ton to play for the next seven weeks, I’d be interested in adding Lorenzen in leagues where he may have been dropped due to uncertainty and as a regression candidate. Remember, predicting regression over a long period of time is typically much more accurate than predicting regression over a shorter period. If Kansas City isn’t the “pitching guru organization” they’ve proven to be so far, there’s still a chance Lorenzen can maintain reasonable production with his new organization.

Hunter Harvey, Kansas City Royals

We’ll finish off today with a closer spec-add in Hunter Harvey. I’ve always admired Harvey’s ability to miss bats. And with James McArthur really struggling in the closer role, Kansas City swung a deal for Lucas Erceg at the deadline to steady the back of their pen. While Harvey appears to be behind that duo in terms of save opportunities, I’m willing to add Harvey in leagues with deep benches in case he gets some chances down the stretch (he grabbed a save Sunday). Remember, the Royals are in the playoff hunt, so they can’t afford any more McArthur blowups. And since Erceg wasn’t even closing games in Oakland, it’s not like he has Mariano Rivera-like job security. Worst-case scenario, you can cut Harvey if need be. If you want to toss him into your lineup, he should at least provide solid ratios and a high strikeout rate if that can assist your categorical needs.

Other Musings

I originally had Andre Pallante of the St. Louis Cardinals as my final player. Unfortunately for Pallante, he was roughed up by the Mets Monday and no longer has the type of job security I envisioned with Lance Lynn on the shelf. With a tough matchup against Kansas City on tap this weekend, I couldn’t risk including a blurb on Pallante without knowing the result of that start. Another disaster start would likely bump him from the rotation.

Even if he survives, take a look at some of the Cardinals’ upcoming opponents: Reds, Dodgers, Brewers, Twins, Padres, Yankees, Brewers (again), before a relatively soft schedule down the stretch. If Pallante somehow survives this weekend and maintains his rotation spot, that’s a gauntlet schedule for sure. 

Instead, I’ll list a handful of other players I’m interested in without the paragraphs of analysis. This is for the TikTok crowd out there (sorry, I had to say it).

Justin Martinez (ARI): With their closer role up for grabs, I’ll take my chances on the guy who throws 101 mph with a wipeout slider and a devastating sinker.

Carson Fulmer (LAA): At least worth a look. Been pitching well and will want to finish the season strong/make an impression.

David Festa (MIN): Check to see if he’s on the wire. He’s a classic example of a player who was added quickly before his debut and dropped after a bad first impression.

Triston Casas (BOS): No analysis needed. This is only for leagues in which he’s floating on the wire (he’s 99% rostered in 15-teamers and still somehow available in my league).

Adrian Del Castillo (ARI): For those who lost Gabriel Moreno to the IL, this might be a simple 1-for-1 switch on the same squad. Jose Herrera should remain in a backup role while Del Casillo (known for his bat) should get some run.

Joey Loperfido (TOR): Another post-hype add/drop player. He’s seeing solid playing time in a premium lineup spot for the Jays.

Max Muncy (LAD): He’s close to a return. If you’re good in the average department but lacking in HR/RBI, he could help and is available in a chunk of leagues.

That’s it for now. As always, hit us up in the FTN Fantasy Baseball Discord, where we’ve been extremely active lately (and all season long).