Small Ball: Fantasy Baseball Game Theory: The Perfect 2024 Draft

With only two more articles left in this series, I’ve decided to do something different. No intro, no story, no long-winded introduction.

Last week, I discussed how to push yourself across the finish line. If you missed it, now is a good time to familiarize yourself with those strategies.

Today I’d like to review what a “perfect” fantasy baseball draft would have looked like back in March. In this exercise, I will hand-pick the perfect player in all 23 rounds to build the perfect fantasy baseball team. After each player, I’ll provide a paragraph or two of analysis on the pick. By doing this, we might be able to pick up on something for next season.

• Was there a certain strategy used to construct the perfect team?
• Was it better to go hitter-heavy, or pitcher-heavy?
• Was double-tapping a position viable?
• Why would anyone have drafted him in this round?
• Is fading a certain position early more beneficial in the long run?
• Should we be targeting certain teams?

These are some of the questions that might arise from this exercise. Of course, no one would ever have drafted this exact team. I’d set the odds of drafting this team as similar to someone filling out a perfect bracket in March Madness. The latter would still be more improbable, but you get the point.

Perhaps you’re reading this and ended up with decent exposure to these players. If so, pat yourself on the back. Either way, I believe it’s a great learning experience for all of us. At worst, we might take something and apply it to next year’s draft to make us better fantasy baseball players.

Let’s go.

Note: I know it’s somewhat unrealistic, but I’m not going to designate a spot in the draft order for these selections. For example, I might include a player drafted in the front end of Round 1 followed by a player drafted in the front end of Round 2. You wouldn’t likely be able to pull this off in real life, but bear with me. It’s just a fun exercise! Also, ADP is used from the month of March.

The Perfect Fantasy Baseball Draft

Round 1

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers, Average ADP (11.7)

Ohtani was the most valuable player taken in the first round of fantasy drafts, and he barely made it inside the first round. If you had the No. 1 overall pick, it would have been worth fading Ronald Acuña Jr. in order to take Ohtani, though you could have gotten very similar production from Bobby Witt Jr. as well (see below). If we look solely at the first round from a “prototype” standpoint, Ohtani was a five-category producer who excelled in all five in a major way. Oh, and he was in an elite offense. That’s step one of a perfect draft.

Other “Perfect” Round 1 Candidates: Bobby Witt Jr., Aaron Judge, Juan Soto
“Perfect” Round 1 Fades: Ronald Acuña Jr. (injury, underperformance), Julio Rodríguez, Corbin Carroll, Spencer Strider, Kyle Tucker (injury), Fernando Tatis Jr. (injury)

Round 2

José Ramírez, Cleveland Guardians, Average ADP (15.85)

Ramírez was incredible as the focal point of an elite offense. He’s set a career high in steals and has an outside chance to also set a career mark in homers. He’s over 100 RBI, will blast through 100 runs and should finish around the .275 average mark, all while filling a 3B/CI spot that has been mostly weak all year.

Other “Perfect” Round 2 Candidates: Elly De La Cruz, Francisco Lindor, Yordan Álvarez
“Perfect” Round 2 Fades: Trea Turner, Matt Olson, Corbin Burnes, Ozzie Albies (injury), Pete Alonso

Round 3

Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles, Average ADP (30.62)

Henderson has cooled off a bit of late but still would have been the perfect Round 3 selection. Good batting average, 30-plus HR, 100-plus R, should climb near 90 RBI and approach 20 SB. Position wise, if you already drafted Ramírez, you could slot Henderson in at SS or CI. No double-tapping necessary.

Other “Perfect” Round 3 Candidates: Zack Wheeler, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
“Perfect” Round 3 Fades: Michael Harris, Bo Bichette, Pablo López

Round 4

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers, Average ADP (46.10)

Skubal is the first pitcher off the board. Despite pitching on a bad Tigers team, he’s at or near the top in wins, ERA, WHIP and K. A perfect complement to your Ohtani, Ramírez, Henderson start.

Other “Perfect” Round 4 Candidates: José Altuve (that’s it)
“Perfect” Round 4 Fades: Adolis García, Randy Arozarena, Kevin Gausman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (injury), Edwin Díaz, Adley Rutschman, Oneil Cruz (nearly everyone)

Round 5

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros, Average ADP (57.89)

This was a particularly bad round without an obvious selection. I could have gone with Aaron Nola instead of Valdez. They are both interchangeable for this exercise. The main point I want to make is both pitchers provided double-digit wins, helpful ratios and some strikeouts. That was better than any of the other selections in this round.

Other “Perfect” Round 5 Candidates: Logan Webb (same as Valdez, Nola essentially)
“Perfect” Round 5 Fades: Cody Bellinger, Nolan Jones, Josh Hader (value-wise), Mike Trout (injury), Nico Hoerner

Round 6

Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians, Average ADP (64.73)

Clase is our first closer. He’s blasted through the 40-save mark, and if you haven’t had a chance, look at his ratios. You couldn’t have done any better in Round 6.

Other “Perfect” Round 6 Candidates: William Contreras, Logan Gilbert
“Perfect” Round 6 Fades: Camilo Doval, Bobby Miller, Gleyber Torres, Paul Goldschmidt

Round 7 

Raisel Iglesias, Atlanta Braves, Average ADP (79.5)

It became a bit tricky constructing the perfect draft at this point. There are closers you could have squeezed even more value from later on, but there wasn’t a “perfect” player in this round. Christian Walker would have been the easy selection, but his injury took away the necessary production to make it a perfect team. So we go with Iglesias, whose ratios have been absolutely impeccable. Also, by snagging his near-30 saves, it gave you all the saves you needed with just two closers on your roster. That adds some value.

Other “Perfect” Round 7 Candidates: Christian Walker, Cole Ragans
“Perfect” Round 7 Fades: Wyatt Langford, Jesús Luzardo, Ha-Seong Kim

Round 8

Yainer Díaz, Houston Astros, Average ADP (101.15)

We break the seal at catcher. If you passed on Adley Rutschman, J.T. Realmuto and Will Smith for Yainer Díaz, that was the right call. Díaz probably should have hit more home runs, but his .300 average and run production made for an excellent first catcher in Round 8 in an elite offense.

Other “Perfect” Round 8 Candidates: Seiya Suzuki, Dylan Cease
“Perfect” Round 8 Fades: David Bednar, Andrés Gimenéz

Round 9

Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks, Average ADP (107.06)

Getting an MVP candidate in Round 9? Woah. For once, I have to give myself credit. I was all over Marte in the offseason, and wrote about him in this series! This checks off second base with authority. Not much else needs to be said.

Other “Perfect” Round 9 Candidates: Teoscar Hernández, Chris Sale (easily could have been the “perfect” selection)
“Perfect” Round 9 Fades: Lane Thomas, Bryson Stott, Evan Carter (injury)

Round 10

Salvador Pérez, Kansas City Royals, Average ADP (125.05)

Pérez would have been your second catcher. Wow. Talk about value at a scarce position. There were other great candidates in this round that I’ll shout out, but let’s cross off the catcher position first.

Other “Perfect” Round 10 Candidates: Jackson Chourio, Ryan Helsley (if we weren’t already set w/saves), Josh Naylor
“Perfect” Round 10 Fades: Jordan Walker, Jordan Romano, Dansby Swanson

Okay, time to take a breath. We’re through 10 rounds. Here’s what your team would look like at this point:

C Yainer Díaz
C Salvador Pérez
1B
2B Ketel Marte
3B José Ramírez
SS Gunnar Henderson
OF
OF
OF
OF
OF
CI
MI
UT Shohei Ohtani

P Tarik Skubal
P Framber Valdez
P
P
P
P
P
P Emmanuel Clase
P Raisel Iglesias

Some quick lessons here. We’ve filled some of the more scarce positions (catcher, second base) and left some of the deeper ones empty (outfield, first base, starting pitching). That makes sense. If we can grab top players at more scarce positions, we are creating an edge over the field. It’s also no coincidence that all the hitters above play in elite offenses.

Let’s continue with the final half of the draft. We’ll speed things up a bit and keep the commentary to a minimum.

Round 11

Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles, Average ADP (135.73)

Santander gives us an outfielder with pop in, you guessed it, an elite offense. His AVG would hurt us a bit, but with the previous hitters we’ve drafted, it wouldn’t matter.

Other “Perfect” Round 11 Candidates: N/A
“Perfect” Round 11 Fades: Esteury Ruiz, Chris Bassitt, Paul Sewald, Shane Bieber (injury), Craig Kimbrel

Round 12

Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox, Average ADP (141.53)

Another outfielder who does it all. Obvious selection here. 

Other “Perfect” Round 12 Candidates: Michael King, Sonny Gray, Hunter Greene
“Perfect” Round 12 Fades: Francisco Álvarez, Merrill Kelly (injury)

Round 13

Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves, Average ADP (145.90)

Another obvious outfielder selection. That’s three in a row.

Other “Perfect” Round 13 Candidates: Alec Bohm, Mitch Keller
“Perfect” Round 13 Fades: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Chas McCormick, Adbert Alzolay

Round 14

Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals, Average ADP (167.87)

Pour one out for Vinnie P. Even though he will miss the final month of the season, his production was good enough to land us our first baseman spot. Would have easily gone over 100 RBI for a Round 14 first bagger.

Other “Perfect” Round 14 Candidates: Hunter Brown, Shōta Imanaga (if we wanted a SP)
“Perfect” Round 14 Fades: Trevor Story, Mitch Garver, Eury Pérez

Round 15

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners, Average ADP (169.90)

More elite ratios, double-digit wins. Our third SP off the board at this point.

Other “Perfect” Round 15 Candidates: Willy Adames
“Perfect” Round 15 Fades: Yu Darvish (personal), James Outman, Matt McLain

Round 16

Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies, Average ADP (182.67)

Perfect middle infielder in Round 16. Finally a Rockies player who paid off.

Other “Perfect” Round 16 Candidates: Maikel Garcia (eh)
“Perfect” Round 16 Fades: Jordan Montgomery, José Alvarado

Round 17

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners, Average ADP (200.00)

Our fourth SP off the board. Guess no one will be touching our ratios. He didn’t even need to pitch all year.

Other “Perfect” Round 17 Candidates: Steven Kwan (just needed a SP in this round, otherwise Kwan was “perfect”), Brandon Pfaadt
“Perfect” Round 17 Fades: Henry Davis, Triston McKenzie, Brandon Drury, Alex Lange

Round 18

Robert Suárez, San Diego Padres, Average ADP (212.57)

I know I said we didn’t really need saves anymore, but 30-plus saves in Round 18 with elite ratios wraps up the SV category for us, keeps the ratios down and prevents our competition from getting an elite closer late. It helps that this round was solid, but not perfect.

Other “Perfect” Round 18 Candidates: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Tyler O’Neill, Mason Miller
“Perfect” Round 18 Fades: Brayan Bello, José Leclerc

Round 19

Nestor Cortes, New York Yankees, Average ADP (221.74)

This round didn’t have a “perfect” candidate, so let’s just stick Cortes in at SP. He contributed (in a way).

Other “Perfect” Round 19 Candidates: Jeremy Peña (didn’t have a starting lineup spot for him)
“Perfect” Round 19 Fades: Jack Suwinski, Jung Hoo Lee, Gavin Williams (injury)

Round 20

Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles, Average ADP (244.62)

No “perfect” candidate here either. But we can plug him it at CI.

Other “Perfect” Round 20 Candidates: N/A
“Perfect” Round 20 Fades: Reid Detmers, Alejandro Kirk, Andrew Vaughn, Kodai Senga (injury)

Okay, we’re through 20 rounds. Here’s the team:

C Yainer Díaz 
C Salvador Pérez
1B Vinnie Pasquantino
2B Ketel Marte
3B José Ramírez
SS Gunnar Henderson
OF Anthony Santander
OF Jarren Duran
OF Marcell Ozuna
OF
OF
CI Ryan Mountcastle
MI Ezequiel Tovar
UT Shohei Ohtani

P Tarik Skubal
P Framber Valdez
P Bryce Miller
P Bryan Woo
P Nestor Cortes
P
P Robert Suárez
P Emmanuel Clase
P Raisel Iglesias

The last four rounds, we will purposely select one starting pitcher and two outfielders, even if there were better picks available to fill out the lineup.

Round 21

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals, Average ADP (266.71)

Had to cheat with his ADP just a few spots. We’d be “reaching” though, so it works. Lugo was the perfect late-round dart throw at SP.

Other “Perfect” Round 21 Candidates: J.D. Martinez, Jarred Kelenic, Nick Lodolo
“Perfect” Round 21 Fades: Kris Bryant

Round 22

Brendan Donovan, St. Louis Cardinals, Average ADP (281.58)

Slight reach again, and nothing special here. Plays every day and contributes to categories in an above-average way.

Other “Perfect” Round 22 Candidates: N/A
“Perfect” Round 22 Fades: Griffin Canning, Louie Varland

Round 23

Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres

Last-round pick at OF? Potential Rookie of the Year. Can’t do much better. Well, actually, we could have taken Brent Rooker as well. We’re splitting hairs.

Bench Spots

Here are a handful of Round 23 ADP (or later) players to round out the bench.

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Brent Rooker, Oakland A’s
Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox
Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals
Jack Flaherty, Los Angeles Dodgers
Gavin Stone, Los Angeles Dodgers
Sean Manaea, New York Mets
Ranger Suárez, Philadelphia Phillies
Reynaldo López, Atlanta Braves
Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers
Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox
Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates
Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox
Luis Gil, New York Yankees

Many of these players were in the 350-400 ADP range. The crazy thing is, you could build a legitimate SP staff if you only stuck to that bullet list above. 

Lessons From The Perfect Draft

Here’s the final roster. I’ll toss some of the players I listed above into bench slots.

C Yainer Díaz 
C Salvador Pérez
1B Vinnie Pasquantino
2B Ketel Marte
3B José Ramírez
SS Gunnar Henderson
OF Anthony Santander
OF Jarren Duran
OF Marcell Ozuna
OF Brendan Donovan
OF Jackson Merrill
CI Ryan Mountcastle
MI Ezequiel Tovar
UT Shohei Ohtani

P Tarik Skubal
P Framber Valdez
P Bryce Miller
P Bryan Woo
P Nestor Cortes
P Seth Lugo
P Robert Suárez
P Emmanuel Clase
P Raisel Iglesias

BN Paul Skenes
BN Jack Flaherty
BN Brent Rooker
BN Brice Turang
BN Ceddanne Rafaela
BN Reynaldo López
BN Ranger Suárez

There’s no chance anyone would beat this team. Even though it’s a perfect draft, there were a few lessons to write down along the way. While there are top-notch pitchers to be had in the early rounds (Skubal, Clase, for example), there are a lot more busts. Whether it’s injury or poor performance, it’s almost always worth going hitter-heavy in the early rounds. I mean, look at the pitchers at the end of our bench who could have been had in the 300+ ADP range. Those are players you could draft late, pick up in FAAB or stream-and-hold. 

It’s also worth targeting elite offenses at scarce positions (Yainer Díaz, Gunnar Henderson, José Ramírez, Ketel Marte). I know, predicting who will be “elite” one year isn’t always an exact science. No one expected the Diamondbacks to be the top-scoring team in MLB. But it’s much easier to find capable players at the OF/1B spots than it is to find elite production at C, SS, 2B, even 3B.

The last lesson? You better hope for some luck. Many of the “busts” were injury-related. And there’s nothing you can do about that. No one will ever put together the perfect draft. But at least by performing this exercise, we can tailor our draft strategies next year to be successful.