Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 10/17)
MLB Dream
The first fantasy baseball league I ever played in was back in 2007. It was a 12-man league with kids from my high school.
A few of us were on the baseball team, but the rest of the members were just baseball enthusiasts. Note I said “enthusiasts” and not “purists,” because many of those same members are still without a league title.
Anyway, I bring this up because my first league was a head-to-head points league. For years, it was the only league I played in. I wasn’t yet engrossed into the fantasy baseball industry like I am now. The first time I ever joined an NFBC league was back in 2022 – so most would still consider me a raw prospect to some extent.
I’m not like many other analysts out there, which is why I’m grateful to have been given an opportunity here at FTN. I believe I bring a different perspective than most having traveled a much different fantasy baseball journey than the field. Which brings me to this week’s Small Ball topic – points leagues. There are many people out there who still might not be ready to join NFBC leagues. Maybe you don’t like that type of format. I can’t fault you for that. Playing in H2H leagues or regular home leagues allows you to be creative with your league rules, rosters, playoffs etc. It’s a much more intimate setting.
There’s nothing better than the thrill of a Friday-Sunday slate in a H2H points league playoff when the matchup is close. There’s nothing like watching obscure players carry you to a title in your league playoffs (looking at you, 2014 Doug Fister).
While it’s still fantasy baseball at its core, H2H points leagues bring some variance to the player pool, especially when it comes to hidden value. Today, I’d like to examine a group of players who are more valuable in points leagues than the typical NFBC, rotisserie or category leagues.
There is so much fantasy baseball talk these days online, but the information you consume is mostly skewed toward high-stakes NFBC leagues. That’s why I believe there’s an edge to be had in points leagues if you look in the right places. Conversely, there are big-name players you can ignore in points leagues that probably generate interest from the baseball “enthusiasts” in your league.
Note: The below analysis is based on the following H2H points league scoring:
Hitters
- Total Bases = 1 point
- RBI = 1 point
- Run = 1 point
- Walk = 1 point
- Hit-by-Pitch = 1 point
- Strikeout = -1 point
- Stolen Base = 1 point
- Caught Stealing = -1 point
Pitchers
- Innings Pitched = 3 points
- Hits = -1 point
- Walks = -1 point
- Hit-by-Pitch = -1 point
- Earned Runs = -2 points
- Strikeouts = 1 point
- Wins = 5
- Losses = -5
- Saves = 3 points
- Blown Saves = -3 points
Your league might be slightly different. For example, my league makes pitcher wins and losses 3 and -3 points, respectively – but we are given 2 points for a quality start. We also have holds = 2 points. Just something to keep in mind.
Hidden Value in Points Leagues
One of the first things I do when I look to draft or pick up a hitter is look at their strikeout numbers. There are players who hit 30+ home runs in points leagues who are virtually worthless with the -1 points deducted for strikeouts. I also like to look at walks. They aren’t sexy, but a walk in points leagues is as good as a hit – kind of like in real life. Players with an elite BB:K rate have extreme value in points leagues. And a handful of them might not be household names.
So far in 2024, here are the hitters with a BB:K ratio above, equal to or just below 1:1 (minimum 100 AB):
- Kyle Tucker
- Mookie Betts
- Lamonte Wade Jr.
- Jurickson Profar
- Bryson Stott
- Nico Hoerner
- Juan Soto
- Gabriel Moreno
- Ryan O’Hearn
- David Fry
- Steven Kwan
The Tuckers and Betts of the world are obvious ones. But how many people in your points league are rostering Wade, Profar, Fry, Moreno and O’Hearn? Depending on the league size and context, a handful of those names might be sitting on the waiver wire. However, a player’s walk-to-strikeout ratio isn’t everything. You can sacrifice some walks and/or strikeouts for players who are putting up crooked fantasy lines with home runs and RBI.
Here’s a list of players with elite K rates (near 20%) and at least 10+ home runs and 20+ RBI:
- Kyle Tucker
- Shohei Ohtani
- Juan Soto
- Josh Naylor
- José Ramírez
- Ketel Marte
- Pete Alonso
- Corey Seager
- José Altuve
- Yordan Álvarez
- Rhys Hoskins
- Isaac Paredes
- Salvador Perez
- Marcus Semien
- Christopher Morel
- Adley Rutschman
Ton of elite names there, but still some interesting takeaways. Once known for their absurd K rates, Morel and Alonso are now more valuable in points leagues than ever with an improvement in the whiffs department. Naylor and Paredes are players to target in trades if your league hasn’t caught onto their metrics (or is a more casual league).
If we lower the HR/RBI standards just a bit, players such as Betts, Profar, Anthony Santander, Thairo Estrada, Jake Cronenworth, Carlos Santana, Anthony Rizzo, Francisco Lindor, Cody Bellinger, William Contreras, Bryan Reynolds, Bobby Witt Jr., CJ Abrams and JJ Bleday pop up. Just something to think about when targeting players off the waiver wire or in trade negotiations.
Less Value in Points Leagues
Now let’s shift toward players who might have more name value than actual value in points leagues. Here’s the list of players in ascending order with K rates above 27% (league-average K rate is close to 22-23%).
Note: These statistics were taken from earlier this week and may have shifted based on the past few samples of games.
- Adolis García
- Eugenio Suárez
- Jackson Chourio
- Matt Olson
- Mitch Haniger
- Ian Happ
- Brenton Doyle
- Julio Rodríguez
- Ezequiel Tovar
- Brandon Marsh
- Colton Cowser
- Teoscar Hernández
- Randy Arozarena
- Max Muncy
- Kyle Schwarber
- Mitch Garver
- Jorge Polanco
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Tyler O’Neill
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Brent Rooker
- Elly De La Cruz
- Edouard Julien
- Cal Raleigh
- Oneil Cruz
- Michael Busch
- Nolan Gorman
- Will Benson
Woof. Goldschmidt and Rodríguez, in particular, are killing their points league managers. They are striking out at a top-20 clip, and both are struggling to drive the ball out of the park.
Elly De La Cruz would likely be a top-five pick in NFBC leagues if we drafted today. Yet in points leagues, he’s scoring about the same number of points as Reynolds, Brandon Nimmo and Jordan Westburg (!!!!). Here’s the list of players in my points league with more points than the NFBC MVP:
- Profar
- Cronenworth
- Paredes
- Jeremy Peña
- Jarren Duran
- Christian Walker
- Maikel Garcia
- Alec Bohm
That’s how much strikeouts can tank your fantasy team. It’s something to consider when building a lineup. It’s also a shrewd strategy to use in trade negotiations. There might be people out there who think De La Cruz is a top-10 player in points leagues. If you’re a De La Cruz manager, you can leverage that to accrue players with less name value who will give you more bang for your buck.
I think we get the point when it comes to hitters. Let’s examine pitchers now.
Hidden Value in Points Leagues
The hidden pitching value isn’t as stark as the hidden value with hitters. That’s because the pitching statistics that help/hurt fantasy baseball managers are mostly aligned in points leagues and NFBC/category leagues. Pitchers with elite strikeout rates are highly coveted in both formats, whereas hitters with high strikeout rates aren’t docked as much value in NFBC leagues as long as they are producing in the other categories (see De La Cruz above).
But there are still ways to squeeze out some extra value. The best way to score points and avoid “blowup outings” is to target pitchers who do not allow as many baserunners. Sounds simple enough. The less baserunners allowed, the less likely your pitcher will lose -2 points for an earned run.
While in category leagues we like to target pitchers with elite win equity and strikeouts, it’s more important to look at ratios in points leagues. If we can find pitchers who strike out batters at an elite clip and keep runners off the base paths, we’re really doing something right.
Here’s the list of starting pitchers with at least a 10 K/9 rate and a 1.15 WHIP or lower:
Note: This data may have changed a tad prior to publish but should be relatively accurate.
- Luis Gil
- Jack Flaherty
- Zack Wheeler
- Garrett Crochet
- Freddy Peralta
- Dylan Cease
- Tyler Glasnow
- Chris Sale
- Cole Ragans
- Tarik Skubal
- Jared Jones
- Pablo López
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
This somewhat makes sense. The more batters you strike out, the better chance you have of limiting baserunners and not getting BABIP-ed to death. If, for whatever reason, your league devalues any of the above names, I’d be targeting most of them in trade offers. The only exceptions are Gil, Jones and Crochet. Though they’ve had great seasons, I have some concerns about potential innings limits and/or their effectiveness over a full season based on past inning totals.
If anyone is somewhat skeptical of Flaherty’s breakout (like me), those fears were quelled to some extent when I realized he has a top-five BABIP in baseball (.340). If that regresses a bit, Flaherty’s monster season will likely become even more sustainable.
López has been somewhat frustrating at times, which makes me salivate knowing that his managers might be vulnerable. The righty has a top-15 BABIP and should be due for some positive regression ROS.
Now what about pitchers who carry more value than their name value? I’m not saying to run and pick these guys up immediately, but Patrick Sandoval, Zack Littell, Reid Detmers, Chris Bassitt, Aaron Civale and Yusei Kikuchi all have above-average strikeout rates but are getting crushed in the BABIP department. If anything, they should be names to keep in the back of your head to stream in solid matchups – though I’d argue Bassitt should be universally rostered (I grabbed him for $77 in a 12-man NFBC league where he was curiously dropped).
Less Value in Points Leagues
Michael King was right at the 10 K/9 cutoff, but his 1.27 WHIP makes him an intriguing fade ROS in points leagues. He’s living on the edge too much and has never exceeded 104.2 innings pitched in a season.
Logan Webb has long been a fixture in all fantasy baseball leagues. Yet his 1.33 WHIP doesn’t pair well with his mediocre 20% rate K rate. I’m not saying to trade him right away, but check in with other managers to see if they’d be willing to trade you any of the names in the previous section.
If anyone chased Chris Paddack’s little hot streak, I’d jump ship immediately. He’s had reasonable success this season despite allowing nearly 1.5 baserunners per inning. That’s one of the worst rates of any starting pitcher in the whole league. Avoid, avoid, avoid.
Notice how I left out Ranger Suarez in both sections. He doesn’t quite qualify for the elite metrics in the “hidden value” section, but he’s also not someone I expect to tank ROS. He’s just above 9 K/9 and leads the league with a 0.82 WHIP. While I don’t expect his WHIP to remain that low ROS, he’s sporting a 53.8% ground-ball rate and keeping the ball in the park. I’d expect some negative regression but not enough to cut bait.
If someone in your league wants to buy thinking he’s a top-five pitcher ROS, then I’d be open to selling him. But I’m not actively buying from someone else.
Let’s finish off this article with some relief pitchers. Emmanuel Clase, Ryan Helsley and Robert Suarez are all top-five in saves with sub 1.00 WHIPs. Andrés Muñoz, Kirby Yates, Mason Miller and Kyle Finnegan have also kept a sub-1.00 WHIP thus far. Not everyone out there is doing backflips over those guys. They are names to watch if you’re looking for some closer help without having to pay a Clase price.
Conversely, Clay Holmes and his 1.24 WHIP scares me. Every once in a while, Holmes can’t control where the ball is going. He has more value in NFBC leagues where you really just need the raw save totals. In points leagues, he’s prone to some blowup outings that can tank your week. Same goes for David Bednar, Jason Foley, Kenley Jansen and Alexis Díaz. All of them have at least eight saves apiece with WHIPs at or above 1.28 (Díaz is at a 1.48 WHIP !!!!).
The last thing you want in a H2H points playoff matchup is a blown save to kill you. I like to enter the fantasy baseball playoffs with RPs who limit baserunners more than anything.
That’s all for today. Hit us up in the Fantasy Baseball Discord with more questions.
