Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Woahhhhhh, we’re halfway there.
It’s hard to believe, but it’s true. Three months down. A maximum of three months to go. Depending on your league, it might be even less than that.
While constantly checking your league standings is frowned upon, now is the time to really do a deep dive into your categorical results. For full transparency, I’ll discuss some of my results in the premier NFBC leagues – the Online Auction Championship and the Online Championship:
Currently, I have teams that are in second place with 100.50 points (auction championship), first place with 90.00 points (online championship) and bouncing between second, third and fourth with 78.50 points (online championship).
My auction team, pound for pound, has probably been the strongest of the three. I deployed a “hitter extreme” strategy, like I outlined in the preseason in my NFBC Online Auction Championship Draft Strategy article. Although I didn’t expect this many injuries to starting pitchers, it certainly made the hitter-extreme strategy optimal for this particular year.
Despite some injuries, FAAB acquisitions, etc., my original batting lineup is close to what I’m rolling out there today:
C: Gabriel Moreno (before his brief IL stint)
C: Yainer Díaz
1B: Christian Walker
2B: José Altuve
3B: Royce Lewis
SS: Bo Bichette
OF: Yordan Álvarez
OF: Joc Pederson
OF: Tommy Pham
OF: Jake McCarthy
OF: Ceddanne Rafaela
MI: Ketel Marte
CI: Vinnie Pasquantino
UT: José Caballero
Noelvi Marte (stash), Wilyer Abreu, Rob Refsynder and Jacob Stallings round out the bench at this very moment. It’s a lineup I’m quite happy with. I have a massive D-backs stack (add runs scored stat) along with mini Red Sox and Astros stacks (add stats). Those lineups have certainly been fruitful.
I spent minimal auction dollars on pitching but have a staff that consists of some reasonable arms:
RP: Raisel Iglesias
RP: Ryan Helsley
SP: Carlos Rodón
SP: Seth Lugo
SP: Brandon Pfaadt
SP: Michael Lorenzen
SP: Cristopher Sánchez
SP: Spencer Turnbull (IL)
SP: Alec Marsh
SP: Tylor Megill
SP: Merrill Kelly (IL)
Not bad at all. Lugo was drafted in the snake portion after everyone’s auction dollars dried up. Lorenzen, Turnbull and Megill were all free-agent pickups, and the rest cost $13 or less in the draft. It’s a strategy I’ve been using for years that has worked for me. And at least so far, it’s getting me where I want to go.
For the sake of time, I won’t go through my other two Online Championship teams. They were snake drafts, but I utilized the same principle – attack hitters and try to piece together a lower-budget staff. Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, I’d like to discuss the more important aspect of this article – assessing your categorical results.
Two of my three teams were really struggling with hitting early in the season – including the lineup above that was supposed to be my team’s relative strength. Luckily, patience often prevails, and I started climbing the standings to some extent. However, I found myself sitting floundering around the sixth-place mark for the first two months of the year. I was average-to-below-average in home runs, RBIs and steals and virtually dead last in pitcher strikeouts.
So how did I deal with this? Well, a few ways. I mentioned one of them already – patience. Instead of picking up home-run thumpers who kill your batting average, I waited, waited and waited until Walker, Pederson and Díaz went on a few home-run binges. More often than not, players who can hit for power are going to figure it out. Constantly streaming players and seeking “power” weeks isn’t my forte. Mentally, it does more harm than good. If you swapped out Díaz for, let’s say, Mitch Garver several weeks ago, you would have seen Díaz homer in four straight games on your bench while Garver went 2-for-12 with just three RBIs in a similar stretch.
That’s the type of move that really hurts the ego and causes you to overthink future roster moves. That’s not what you want. OK, so most of the time, it’s best to practice patience early in the season. But when should you be impatient? It pays to aggressively attack areas that need to be attacked – like stolen bases.
SBs are one of the only categories you really have to chase. There are certain specialists out there who can help in this category but don’t do much anywhere else. I drafted Esteury Ruiz in my auction league with that goal in mind. That absolutely backfired. And for the first two months of the year, I was second-to-last in the category.
Enter Jake McCarthy and José Caballero.
Caballero was another one of my “free” players at the end of the auction draft. But the reality is, almost anyone could have snagged Caballero on waivers through April and perhaps even May if they needed some SB help.
I continue to deploy these players in weeks they have solid hitting matchups. Though they weren’t massive impact players in other categories, they gave me some juice in the SB department. Fast-forward through the end of June, and I’m now in the upper half of the standings in stolen bases. If this sounds like a humble brag, I promise it’s not. I’m simply trying to walk you through how I address categorical weaknesses without blowing up my team. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. But I find that blending patience and being “selectively aggressive” is a successful combination more often than not.
To address my strikeout deficiencies, I opted to utilize my FAAB dollars almost exclusively on two-step pitchers in good matchups. I figured that would help make up some of my issues in the K department. Fast-forward again, and I’m still second-to-last in strikeouts. See, these strategies don’t always work out.
Luckily, the ratios have remained solid. But at some point down the road, I may need to make a decision between sacrificing ratios to chase K’s or punt K’s to maintain solid ratios. That’s something I’m not agonizing over yet. Remember, we’re only halfway through the year. That’s a decision to make in August or September when you’re in the stretch run of the season.
Let’s pause for a moment and review.
I’ve mentioned this many times throughout this column, but I still believe patience is your best friend. There are certain players (like Walker Buehler) who are not worth waiting on anymore. I listed a handful of other players in my Drops column a few weeks back. I’m not talking about being patient with those players.
But depending on your league standings, it might make sense to wait things out a bit longer. If you look at the HR standings and see something like this, I’m going to wait it out.
Home Run Leaders
- 134
- 132
- 123
- 118
- 115
- 114
- 113
- 112 (this is you)
- 106
- 100
- 99
- 97
- 94
- 89
- 88
In the above example, you’re sitting in eighth place in HR’s. That’s actually slightly below average at the halfway mark. However, you’re just six HR’s out of fourth place. With three months of baseball left, that’s way too much time to start streaming less-valuable players to chase this category.
Conversely, if you see something like this, you might need to be a bit more aggressive:
- 144
- 141
- 139
- 138
- 133
- 128
- 127
- 122
- 111 (this is you)
- 110
- 104
- 100
- 98
- 94
- 91
In this one, you’re sitting in ninth – just one place behind the first example. But look at the distance you have to cover to make up serious ground. Another key aspect here is assessing the players on your team. Do you have guys like Yordan Álvarez littered across your lineup? If so, you’re more likely to go on a home-run binge than a team of yours that’s filled with more Luis Arráez types. If you’re the latter, sacrificing batting average for power could actually harm you more if the pickup options don’t end up hitting for power. It makes it even worse if they simultaneously drag down your AVG. There are many factors at play.
Here’s another thing to consider. What should you do with your best categories? Most people tend to get complacent when they see themselves atop the standings in certain areas. In reality, you should never feel safe – especially at this point in the season. Simply put, we have to think about the season as two halves. What you see in the standings right now is the first half standings. Now imagine the categories literally resetting to 0. Even though that doesn’t happen, I like to analyze my team with that perspective in mind.
If everything resets to 0, how should I expect to perform in the second half?
If you’re struggling in certain areas, but feel like your team is well structured to excel in that category, then wait it out. If you’re struggling and your current lineup structure doesn’t exude confidence in that area, it’s time to make some calculated changes.
Need runs? Sort team statistics by runs scored, and scan your waiver wire for players on “elite” offenses who hit in the top half of the lineup. It’s unlikely there are many options out there, but there are ways to game the system. Certain managers like to hit particular players in the leadoff spot depending on pitcher handedness. Josh Rojas was a solid example from earlier this season. Rojas, who has since struggled and lost playing time, was red-hot in April/May and hit atop the lineup against righties. Those are the FAAB acquisitions you should try to make if you know that week Seattle is facing a boatload of righties. Rojas might have a “spike” week in runs based on his lineup placement, despite not being a universally rostered asset.
Most of the stolen base options on the wire are available because they can’t hit (or don’t play everyday). Once again, you can mitigate that to some extent by checking pitcher handedness and lineup tendencies. Johan Rojas (hey, another Rojas) was a valuable asset earlier this season when he was playing everyday with the Phillies. Try to find players in similar roles. Most weeks, they won’t provide the counting stats you need. But if they are going to see close to a full week in the lineup, they might run into a homer or two in addition to providing you some steals. Those are simple ways to finagle your lineup and make up some ground without doing anything stupid.
That’s it for now. I’ll have one final writeup before the MLB All-Star festivities. Aside from enjoying the Home Run Derby and the All-Star game, it’s a great time to mentally refresh and regroup for the second half of the fantasy baseball season. Perhaps that’s the best time for you to perform an in-depth analysis of your standings.
For all other conundrums, continue to hit us up in the fantasy baseball Discord. We’ve had some pretty solid discussions in there – some in which the analysts have actually disagreed! And that’s a good thing! Not everything is always black and white. Jump in if you haven’t done so already.
