Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We’ve all been there. Your hand is on the mouse, but your body is frozen.
You stare at the computer screen. Three names are staring right back at you. You could make a case for any of those players. But which one? You shift your focus to the top left of the screen where suddenly the clock is at 5 seconds. Huh? You swear it was at 30 seconds just a moment ago. You can literally hear the countdown coming out of your laptop speakers as the clock hits 3…2…1.
You press down on the mouse and instantly regret it. “Ugh, I definitely should have taken (insert one of the three names here).” You skip the denial and anger sections of the five stages of grief and instantly move to the bargaining phase. Then comes depression, and finally acceptance that you made a poor draft choice.
My goal is to make sure the above situation never plays out for you on draft day. We want to feel confident in our selections. We want to have a plan. And if the draft throws us a curveball (pun intended), we want to feel confident sifting through players who hover around the same ADP (Average Draft Placement).
The people who hastily make a selection between three players with one second on the clock are typically the unprepared managers. That’s not what we do here at FTN Fantasy. Whether you’re drafting in person or online, a manager who exudes confidence and displays conviction is a manager to fear. You want to be that manager. And in order to make that happen, we need to discuss players who are tripping people up and causing confusion and uncertainty in drafts.
Below, I’ll highlight a handful of players at different ADP pockets and which players I’m targeting and fading in 2024. Draft clock be damned.
ADP Pockets
This is the third installment of this offseason article. In the first two, I examined a trio of players appearing inside the top 50, top 100 and top 200. A few weeks ago, we focused on pitching. Let’s go back to hitting. I’ll see if I can mix up the position groups so we cover even more ground.
Top 50 ADP Pocket
Kyle Tucker (6), Juan Soto (10), Aaron Judge (11)
We’re not ducking anything here. This is a first-round conundrum between three extremely productive outfielders on American League-contending squads. Luckily, I have a strong lean here.
Let’s recap their 2023 seasons, with the five NFBC hitting categories in mind:
- Tucker (157 games): .284 AVG, 29 HR, 112 RBI, 97 R, 30 SB
- Soto (162 games): .275 AVG, 35 HR, 109 RBI, 97 R, 12 SB
- Judge (106 games): .267 AVG, 37 HR, 75 RBI, 79 R, 3 SB
Judge’s power numbers become even more amazing when you see the discrepancy in games played. As long as he’s healthy, he’s going to be one of the top HR/RBI guys. You can feel safe clicking his name, slotting him in the outfield position and washing your hands of it. With Soto likely hitting in the No. 2 hole in front of Judge, there will be plenty of RBI opportunities.
While Judge gives you elite, elite, elite production in a handful of spots, I believe Soto will benefit the most from the move to New York. Pitching around Soto won’t be advised with Judge standing in the on-deck circle. However, Soto’s plate discipline is second-to-none, and he will still take his walks if they’re given to him. The park factors will help boost his HR numbers, especially with the short porch at Yankee Stadium in right field.
Here’s how I break down the two Yankee outfielders. Judge will give you a small edge in HR/RBI, Soto will give you a small edge in AVG, R and to some extent SB. Soto gets the nod for contributing in more categories. I could see drafting Judge to a team that desperately needs power. But in snake drafts, this will be your first selection. You won’t know where your team is lacking quite yet. Take the extra contributions up top.
That brings us to Tucker. The Houston outfielder is like a perfect blend of both Yankee players above. The floor is roughly 30 HR, 100 RBI, 90 R, .275 AVG and 25-30 SB. It’s hard to pass up that type of production in the first round. Even if he has an uncharacteristically poor power season, he can make up some of that value by providing SBs unlike Judge/Soto. There are more avenues to success with Tucker because he’d have to completely bust across the board to hurt you. Luckily, hitting in the middle of the Astros lineup is like being first on line at a buffet. The possibilities are endless. I don’t foresee a down season from the 27-year-old.
The decision here really comes down to Soto or Tucker. Unfortunately, the guys at NFBC have not been swayed by my suggestion to change the AVG category to OBP. That means you’ll be cursing at your TV every time Soto takes a walk – which carries little-to-no value in NFBC formats. That’s a battle for another day. But it’s a real concern. Perhaps hitting in front of Judge will alleviate that a bit. I’m still going to take the rock-solid safety net/high-ceiling combo that is Kyle Tucker.
Verdict: Kyle Tucker
Top 100 ADP Pocket
Christian Walker (88), Alex Bregman (91), Triston Casas (95)
Comparing these three corner infielders a few years ago would have been silly. The obvious answer would have been Bregman. Now, it’s not so clear.
Here’s how these players fared in 2023:
- Walker (157 games): .258 AVG, 33 HR, 103 RBI, 86 R, 11 SB
- Bregman (161 games): .262 AVG, 25 HR, 98 RBI, 103 R, 3 SB
- Casas (132 games): .263 AVG, 24 HR, 65 RBI, 66 R, 0 SB
I included these three players for a different reason than you’d think. Where am I going with this?
Instead of making a case for just one, I’m going to look at this from another angle. At this point of the draft, you’d probably be at least 6-7 rounds deep. You’ll have at least some idea of the strengths and weaknesses of your roster. I’m going to select the player who best fits my roster needs. Unlike the first example, where it’s your first pick of the draft, we can be more selective here.
Let’s say you took my advice and drafted Tucker in the first round. In that case, I’d have a strong lean toward Bregman. When possible, I like to put together mini-stacks in my NFBC lineups to create some correlation. For example, you’re in a great spot if Bregman leads off an inning with a single and is driven in on a Tucker home run. Perhaps you have someone like Jose Altuve in your lineup as well. In that case, any big Astros inning is going to beef up your numbers. It’s worked for me in the past, and it’s an easy way to break a tie on draft day.
Bregman would also be the clear selection for me if runs are a category you’d like to address in the middle rounds.
Conversely, if you’re looking for pure power, it’s hard to get more steady production than Walker. He’s clubbed 30-plus homers in back-to-back seasons and should also have plenty of run-producing opportunities hitting behind Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte. He’ll even provide some moderate production on the bases. Just know the batting average won’t help you much.
Now what about Casas? If you feel comfortable with your categories across the board through the first 6-7 rounds, Casas would be my choice. He provides some nuclear upside and has virtually no competition for at-bats on the roster. His hard-hit rate of 46% puts him in some pretty great company among young players. If the sweet-swinging lefty continues to barrel up the baseball and sticks in the No. 3 hole in Boston, you’ll be getting some high-end value at a discount (he’s almost going a round later than Walker at this point).
Verdict: Depends on roster context. If you force me to pick one for this exercise, I’m willing to take the plunge on Casas. I’d rather have a potential breakout player in this round since CI is relatively easy to replace in a pinch.
Top 200 ADP Pocket
Max Muncy (166), Vinnie Pasquantino (171), Ke’Bryan Hayes (178)
I admit, I was shocked when I scrolled down to this section of NFBC ADP. It won’t take long for me to come up with my answer below.
But first, the 2023 production:
- Muncy (135 games): .212 AVG, 36 HR, 105 RBI, 95 R, 1 SB
- Pasquantino (61 games): .247 AVG, 9 HR, 26 RBI, 24 R, 0 SB
- Hayes (124 games): .271 AVG, 15 HR, 61 RBI, 65 R, 10 SB
I don’t expect Muncy to duplicate his career-high HR/RBI numbers. Not with a rising strikeout rate and a .212 AVG that was actually a stark improvement from his .196 in 2022. With Muncy, you get crushed in two categories (AVG and SB). I don’t see the value.
Hayes is the definition of mediocre. He’s fine to have if you’re forced to take him. He’ll contribute to all five categories but at mostly a tortoise-like pace. The added value he provides with stolen bases is less than previous years due to increased stolen bases across the league.
So obviously I’m selecting Vinnie P here. Anyone who knows me is familiar with my fantasy baseball crush on Pasquantino. I’m mostly ignoring last season. The .247 average in a small sample size was disappointing. The .250 BABIP and decrease in hard-hit rate probably had something to do with that. But remember, Pasquantino ended up needing surgery for a torn labrum in his shoulder. He’s now full-go for Spring Training and put together a much better-looking .295 AVG with a 46% hard-hit rate in a 72-game sample in 2022.
This late in the draft, it’s almost impossible to find players with elite bat-to-ball skills. If you’re lucky enough to find one near the top 200, they usually are slap hitters.
Now what if I said you could draft a player with a sub-12% K rate who should easily clear 20 HR/75+ RBI, hit near .280 and play every day in a cleanup role behind Bobby Witt?
That’s Vinnie P at 171!
Verdict: Pasquan-freaking-Tino
As always, hit us up in the FTN Fantasy Baseball Discord with questions. There’s already some buzz in there, and it’s certain to heat up in the next few months. Perhaps I’ll change my tune by the time March rolls around on some of these tough decisions. Only one way to find out – join the Discord!
