On The Bump – MLB DFS Pitching Primer (6/21)

Welcome to On The Bump – MLB DFS Pitching Primer. This article aims to not only produce transparent picks for MLB DFS, but to teach my process of playing pitchers in MLB DFS. Each weekday, I will go through my entire process of selecting pitchers for the MLB DFS slate at hand. Some at first glance, and some with in-depth research. You will learn why I like certain pitchers, why I do not, and why I prefer some pitchers for cash games and others for tournaments. 

For those unfamiliar, there is a vetting process that pitchers go through in this column, as we move through the processes to find who the plays are for a given slate. These steps are as follows:

1. Pitchers to Vet – We go through which pitchers stick out, and are worth looking into for the slate at hand based on various factors.
2. Matchups – Dive into each pitcher's matchup for the given day, and ensure the matchup is worth keeping the pitcher for the slate at hand.
3. Pitch Data/Analysis – After matchups, the science of pitch data is discussed. This will show whether a pitcher is in a good spot based on pitch data against the opposing team. Then, we analyze the pitcher for the given slate.
4. Cash or GPP – After the research is done, we will decide which pitchers to play on which sites, and in which formats.

Let's get in this! 

Pitchers to vet

(These are pitchers that stand out at first glance based on matchup, run totals, and Vegas lines)

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres (vs. Dodgers)
Frankie Montas, Oakland A's (@ Texas)
Kyle Gibson, Texas Rangers (vs. Oakland)
Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. Milwaukee)

Pitch data/Analysis/Matchup

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres (vs. Dodgers)

Darvish has one of the better matchups on the slate against a Dodgers team that is struggling through injuries right now. He has pitched better at home with a 2.25 ERA to go along with an 11.3 K/9 rate. His metrics are still through the roof, even though he hasn't pitched well in his last four starts. He's giving up just one home run per nine innings, a modest 4.62 K/BB and 12% whiff rate. 

Frankie Montas, Oakland A's (@ Texas)

Montas has spun back-to-back great starts, striking out eight hitters in each of those games while allowing two runs as well. Home runs have slowly crept up on him, allowing 1.3 per nine innings, but he hasn't allowed a homer in four straight games. He's been better on the road this season, just like in 2019 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. There's a good amount of upside as well for Montas, with Texas striking out 26.3% of the time this season against right-handed pitchers. 

Kyle Gibson, Texas Rangers (vs. Oakland)

Gibson is one of my value arms for the slate. He's been one of the most consistent pitchers this season, pitching into the sixth inning in all but two starts this year. He's also been one of the best home pitchers as well with a 0.96 ERA and 0.91 WHIP through 37.1 innings pitched. His ground ball rate has been exceptional at 51.5% while giving up contact 71% of the time. 

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. Milwaukee)

With Milwaukee heading out of great hitting conditions and into Arizona, Kelly is another value arm for the slate Kelly has pitched to contact this season, giving it up around 79% of the time but has induced ground balls 45% of that time. He's also been good at limiting free passes with a 6% walk rate this season. Since 2019, Kelly owns a 3.51 ERA at home to go along with an 8.6 K/9. 

Cash/GPP

Cash arms 

Darvish
Gibson

GPP arms

Montas
Darvish
Gibson
Kelly