Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The NFL’s prime-time games so far this season have certainly lived up to the hype, and Sunday night was no different, as the Packers won a 30-28 game against the San Francisco 49ers on the back of a game-winning field goal by Mason Crosby as time expired. With an intradivisional contest on tap between the Eagles and Cowboys Monday, we could see yet another classic. It also sounds like the perfect opportunity to make money on PrizePicks.
“PrizePicks” is a creative new way to parlay picks based on expected fantasy point production. To dive into the ins and outs of everything PrizePicks, FTN’s Tyler Loechner wrote a comprehensive App Review.
How to play PrizePicks NFL
For the sake of this NFL article, the format is simple.
You pick 2-4 four players and predict whether they will go over or under their projected fantasy point total, or their single-stat total.
When parlaying the players, the larger your parlay, the better the payout:
- Two-pick entry pays 3x (max entry: $400)
- Three-pick entry pays 5x (max entry: $200)
- Four-pick entry pays 10x (max entry: $100)
As a bonus offer, there is a “flex play” option. This provides an added level of security on your entry where you can decrease your multiplier received if you miss one of your entries but hit on all of the others.
An important note — these lines can shift over the course of the day leading up until lock. The lines that I am quoting are at the time of writing (Monday morning). I will be in the PrizePicks Discord channel (which is FREE!) up until lock to help out with how to adjust to the changing projections.
Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
NFL PrizePicks for today
Here’s a look at my favorite two-pick PrizePicks Power Play for Monday.
Dak Prescott over 301.5 passing yards
When I see a number above 300 passing yards for a quarterback, I typically shy away. Prescott is one of the few exceptions to this rule. Since the start of 2020 (seven games total for Prescott), the passing volume has been off the charts.
Prescott has averaged 356.57 passing yards per game on 43.86 attempts in that span, which includes the game where he got injured in Week 5 last season where he finished early with only 166 passing yards on 21 attempts. The Eagles’ secondary is not one to shy away from and given the 51-point implied total and only a 3-point spread, the expectation is that the offensive production will be plentiful.
Jalen Hurts over 54.5 rushing yards
Hurts’ rushing prop has increased each week, but it’s still not close to a point where I would be wary of picking the over. He’s averaged 72 rushing yards per game over the first two weeks of the 2021 season and posted at least 60 rushing yards in all three of the games he started and finished last season. He also posted 34 rushing yards on only eight attempts in the Week 17 game that he didn’t finish in 2020.
Because the Dallas defense struggles to get pressure on quarterbacks, they’ve only forced two scrambles on the season. While Hurts may have more time in the pocket and not need to run as much, the time should allow more lanes for him to open up for chunk gains. Given his production that we’ve seen on the ground and the cushion we’re getting with the line, this is another rock-solid pick.
