Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
After another primetime game where we got spoiled with an all-time classic between the Chiefs and the Ravens, Monday night’s game will look to follow suit and keep up with the entertainment level that the previous primetime games have performed at. The Packers are fully capable of providing an entertaining game, but the verdict remains out on the Lions. Regardless, there are a nice number of PrizePicks to target for the Monday night game between these two teams.
“PrizePicks” is a creative new way to parlay picks based on expected fantasy point production. To dive into the ins and outs of everything PrizePicks, FTN’s Tyler Loechner wrote a comprehensive App Review.
How to play PrizePicks NFL
For the sake of this NFL article, the format is simple.
You pick 2-4 players and predict whether they will go over or under their projected fantasy point total, or their single-stat total. When parlaying the players, the larger your parlay, the better the payout:
- Two-pick entry pays 3x (max entry: $400)
- Three-pick entry pays 5x (max entry: $200)
- Four-pick entry pays 10x (max entry: $100)
As a bonus offer, there is a “flex play” option. This provides an added level of security on your entry where you can decrease your multiplier received if you miss one of your entries but hit on all of the others.
An important note — these lines can shift over the course of the day leading up until lock. The lines that I am quoting are at the time of writing (Monday morning). I will be in the PrizePicks Discord channel (which is FREE!) up until lock to help out with how to adjust to the changing projections.
Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
NFL PrizePicks for today
Here’s a look at my favorite two-pick PrizePicks Power Play for Monday.
D’Andre Swift over 27.5 receiving yards
Swift tied for the team lead in receptions (8) in Week 1 while also tying T.J. Hockenson for the team lead in targets (11). Much of this production can be attributed to the negative gamescript that the Lions faced as they mounted a second-half comeback against the Niners, but they’re fully expected to face the same game script on Monday as 11.5-point underdogs.
The Packers allowed 5.6 catches on nearly seven targets per game to running backs in 2020 for 47.75 receiving yards per game, and while there are two running backs here who could eat into each other’s receiving production, Week 1 showed that there’s enough room for both to produce. Swift’s two games against the Packers last season? In Week 2 he posted five catches for 60 yards, and he followed that up with four catches for 26 yards in Week 13. He’s proven to be more than capable in passing situations and given the role that he saw last week, this number is simply too low.
Aaron Jones over 0.5 rushing touchdowns
I don’t typically like targeting touchdowns on PrizePicks, but this one feels like a smash bet. Jones, like the rest of the Packers team, was held in check in Week 1, but that shouldn’t stop him from producing going forward. He’s posted 25 rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons, averaging 12.5 rushing touchdowns per season since 2019. If there’s any defense to exploit on the ground, it’s the Lions. No team allowed more rushing touchdowns (27) than Detroit in 2020, as they also allowed the fourth-most yards after contact, the most red-zone attempts (104), red-zone touchdowns (22), and the sixth-highest gash rate (14.5%).
Per our FTN Daily splits tool, Jones has only played in four games since 2018 where he’s been at least an 11.5-point favorite, but in those four games, he’s averaged 24.14% more rushing attempts, 19.07% more production on the ground, and saw a 54.57% uptick in targets. The point: Opportunity is going to be there. Given Jones’ track record at finding the end-zone, it’s a matter of when and not if. Betting on the “when” to happen in Week 2 against the Lions seems like a very wise decision.
