NFL Monday Night Football PrizePicks for October 4

Week 4 of the NFL season is just about behind us, but before we can say that, we have one final game between two of the higher-flying offenses in the AFC, as the Las Vegas Raiders head to SoFi Stadium to square off with the Los Angeles Chargers. With two offenses that have racked up production early in the season, the PrizePicks board has a handful of enticing options. I will present you with my top two to pair together.

“PrizePicks” is a creative new way to parlay picks based on expected fantasy point production. To dive into the ins and outs of everything PrizePicks, FTN’s Tyler Loechner wrote a comprehensive App Review.

How to play PrizePicks NFL

For the sake of this NFL article, the format is simple. You pick 2-4 players and predict whether they will go over or under their projected fantasy point total, or their single-stat total. 

When parlaying the players, the larger your parlay, the better the payout:

• Two-pick entry pays 3x (max entry: $400)
• Three-pick entry pays 5x (max entry: $200)
• Four-pick entry pays 10x (max entry: $100)

As a bonus offer, there is a “flex play” option. This provides an added level of security on your entry where you can decrease your multiplier received if you miss one of your entries but hit on all of the others.

An important note — these lines can shift over the course of the day leading up until lock. The lines that I am quoting are at the time of writing (Monday morning). I will be in the PrizePicks Discord channel (which is FREE!) up until lock to help out with how to adjust to the changing projections.

Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.

NFL PrizePicks for today

Here’s a look at my favorite two-pick PrizePicks Power Play for Monday.

Austin Ekeler over 33.5 receiving yards

After going not only going catchless, but going without a single target in Week 1, Ekeler spelled any concerns that were expressed by logged 15 catches on 15 targets for 113 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks. Over this span, he’s averaged 56.5 receiving yards per game with chunk gains of at least 15 yards in each contest. Off the bat based on the last two weeks alone, this number (at the time of writing, Sunday night) feels egregiously low.

So low, in fact, that if you dig up Ekeler’s per-game stats over the last two seasons, you’ll be scratching your head. Using the FTN Daily splits tool, Ekeler has averaged over 50 receiving yards per game since the start of the 2019 season. 

This line simply makes no sense. Add in the fact that he draws a favorable matchup against an offense capable of keeping themselves in a competitive game and you get one of the easiest over plays of the season.

Darren Waller over 68.5 receiving yards

Another receiving prop that seems too low, you say? You got it. While the Chargers’ defense has been one of the more impressive secondaries early in the season, the tight end position is one where they’ve proven to give up production. As noted in my Thursday-Monday DFS article, they’ve allowed at least 50 yards or a touchdown in all three weeks to the tight end position. Most recently in Week 3, they allowed a 7-104-0 game to Travis Kelce, arguably the most comparable tight end in football to Waller.

Despite only receiving 14 total targets over the last two games, Waller still has a 24.67% target share (good for 24th overall in the NFL) and 350 air yards, ranking him sixth in the entire NFL among running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. This line is simply too low and another that I anticipate moving, making it one to jump on early.