Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
After a Sunday night game between two high-powered offenses that was prolonged by an extensive weather delay, we turn our attentions to another prime-time matchup Monday night between the Baltimore Ravens and the Indianapolis Colts. The goal of this article is to find the most targetable PrizePicks options on the board.
“PrizePicks” is a creative new way to parlay picks based on expected fantasy point production. To dive into the ins and outs of everything PrizePicks, FTN’s Tyler Loechner wrote a comprehensive App Review.
How to Play PrizePicks NFL
For the sake of this NFL article, the format is simple.
You pick 2-4 players and predict whether they will go over or under their projected fantasy point total, or their single-stat total.
When parlaying the players, the larger your parlay, the better the payout:
- Two-pick entry pays 3x (max entry: $400)
- Three-pick entry pays 5x (max entry: $200)
- Four-pick entry pays 10x (max entry: $100)
As a bonus offer, there is a “flex play” option. This provides an added level of security on your entry where you can decrease your multiplier received if you miss one of your entries but hit on all of the others.
An important note — these lines can shift over the course of the day leading up until lock. The lines that I am quoting are at the time of writing (Monday morning). I will be in the PrizePicks Discord channel (which is FREE!) up until lock to help out with how to adjust to the changing projections.
Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
NFL PrizePicks for Today
Here’s a look at my favorite two-pick PrizePicks Power Play for Monday.
Lamar Jackson over 223.5 passing yards
Jackson is consistently disrespected by oddsmakers when it comes to passing output and this line is more of the same. The 223.5 line on the passing yards is at least 10 yards lower than the passing totals he’s logged in every game this season, totaling 235, 239, 287 and 316 yards in his four games this season. Additionally, the Colts have turned into a pass-funnel defense, as Derek Brown pointed out in his showdown article:
“This season, the Colts have morphed into a pass-funnel defense, ranking fifth in DVOA against the run, but they are sadly 26th against the pass (per Football Outsiders). They are ninth in adjusted completion rate allowed (78.1%) while also surrendering the sixth-highest yards per attempt (8.4) and most passing touchdowns (11).”
Given Jackson’s tendency to look down the field, he’s bound to rack up chunk yardage in the passing game against this secondary, making this one of the easiest plays on the board.
Jonathan Taylor over 0.5 touchdowns
Getting the ability to capitalize on this pick with either a receiving or rushing touchdown makes it one of the most attractive options on the board.
The Ravens’ front-seven has been a stout unit for years and while the offensive line for the Colts is banged up, Taylor has a handful of factors working in his favor in this game. Per FTNDaily’s advanced rushing defense stats, the Ravens have allowed the third-most yards after contact per attempt (2.95), the third-most rushing touchdowns (5), and the third-most gash rushes (15.2%) on the season. This caters right to Taylor’s wheelhouse as the pure runner that he is. On top of that, the touchdown upside is astronomical given the Ravens’ struggles, as Taylor leads the NFL with 19 red-zone rushing attempts despite having yet to play in Week 5.
Given the fact that PrizePicks is counting either a rushing or receiving touchdown here, the underlying metrics are pointing to a massive touchdown game from Taylor sooner rather than later, making this a phenomenal value.
