Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Week 12 of the NFL season comes to a close with a Monday night showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and Washington Football Team, giving us one more slate of PrizePicks before a few days off.
“PrizePicks” is a creative new way to parlay picks based on expected fantasy point production. To dive into the ins and outs of everything PrizePicks, FTN’s Tyler Loechner wrote a comprehensive App Review.
How to Play PrizePicks NFL
For the sake of this NFL article, the format is simple: You pick 2-5 players and predict whether they will go over or under their projected fantasy point total or single-stat total.
When parlaying the players, the larger your parlay, the better the payout:
- Two-pick entry pays 3x (max entry: $400)
- Three-pick entry pays 5x (max entry: $200)
- Four-pick entry pays 10x (max entry: $100)
As a bonus offer, there is a “flex play” option. This provides an added level of security on your entry where you can decrease your multiplier received if you miss one of your entries but hit on all of the others.
An important note — these lines can shift over the course of the day leading up until lock. The lines that I am quoting are at the time of writing (Monday morning). I will be in the PrizePicks Discord channel (which is FREE!) up until lock to help out with how to adjust to the changing projections.
Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
Antonio Gibson over 61.5 rushing yards
Gibson has a couple of things working in his favor ahead of a Monday night date with the Seahawks. The first is his recent workload. While playing through an injury all season, he’s seen an uptick in usage, particularly over the last two weeks. Over this span, Gibson has accounted for the majority of the backfield snaps (63% in Week 10, 49% in Week 11) and has showcased a stranglehold on the usage. He’s logged 24 and 19 rushing attempts over the last two weeks, adding a pair of receptions in Week 10 and maintaining his RB1 status.
The second favorable thing he has Monday is the matchup. The Seahawks rank in the bottom half of the NFL in rushing yards allowed, yards after contact allowed and rushing attempts allowed, setting up for another heavy workload for the second-year back. With Gibson projecting for 66 rushing yards in Jeff Ratcliffe’s projections, we have a nice cushion on the prop as well.
Russell Wilson over 230.5 passing yards
Similar to the Gibson prop, Wilson’s passing yards is one that sticks out like a sore thumb when comparing the PrizePicks line to Ratcliffe’s projections, as he has him pegged for 242 passing yards. Getting the 11.5-yard edge makes this a worthwhile prop by itself, but the matchup certainly helps as well.
Wilson’s recent form has been forgettable, but given the state of Washington’s secondary, this is a prime get-right spot. On the season, the Football Team ranks in the bottom 10 in completion percentage allowed (68.10%), total passing yards allowed, yards per attempt (7.69), and passing touchdowns (24). You can beat them anywhere on the field, but nowhere is more exploitable than their secondary. Even if he isn’t his whole self, Wilson should waltz into the over on this prop, making it the ideal pairing with Gibson’s rushing total.
