Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
With one game left on the Week 11 NFL DFS docket, Monday presents us with a clash of teams heading in opposite directions — the New York Giants and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Even on a single-game slate, there are a number of PrizePicks to choose from.
“PrizePicks” is a creative new way to parlay picks based on expected fantasy point production. To dive into the ins and outs of everything PrizePicks, FTN’s Tyler Loechner wrote a comprehensive App Review.
How to Play PrizePicks NFL
For the sake of this NFL article, the format is simple: You pick 2-5 players and predict whether they will go over or under their projected fantasy point total, or their single-stat total.
When parlaying the players, the larger your parlay, the better the payout:
- Two-pick entry pays 3x (max entry: $400)
- Three-pick entry pays 5x (max entry: $200)
- Four-pick entry pays 10x (max entry: $100)
As a bonus offer, there is a “flex play” option. This provides an added level of security on your entry where you can decrease your multiplier received if you miss one of your entries but hit on all of the others.
An important note — these lines can shift over the course of the day leading up until lock. The lines that I am quoting are at the time of writing (Wednesday morning). I will be in the PrizePicks Discord channel (which is FREE!) up until lock to help out with how to adjust to the changing projections.
Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
Below is my Power Play for the Monday Night Football game.
Leonard Fournette over 0.5 touchdowns
While Fournette hasn’t found the end zone in three weeks, he’s convincingly taken control of the Buccaneers backfield. Over his last six games, he’s played at least 60% of the offensive snaps in five of those games, falling to 53% in Week 7 when all four running backs saw the field.
He leads the backfield in target share (13.22%) and has logged at least 15 touches in six of his last eight games. He comes into Week 11 in a perfect matchup, too. Per Derek Brown’s showdown breakdown:
“New York is 31st and 25th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards allowed. They have the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt allowed (2.5) and the ninth-highest gash rate (11.2%). Fournette could rack up 20-plus touches with multiple touchdowns.”
Getting the advantage of benefiting from both a receiving or rushing touchdown, this is a prop to feel great about on PrizePicks Monday.
Kadarius Toney over 36.5 receiving yards
Like much of the Giants’ offense, Toney has been frustrating to roster and use this season. Getting the opportunity to fill the slot role in the absence of Sterling Shepard should instill some optimism.
Using the FTNDaily Splits Tool, Toney has played three games without Shepard this season. In those games, Toney has averaged over 90 receiving yards on nearly eight targets per game.
This alone is grounds to smash the over on his receiving prop, but the matchup out of the slot makes things even more appealing. Matching up with Ross Cockrell, who’s allowed a 131.0 passer rating in the slot. This is an egregiously low prop that feels too good to be true.
