Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 10’s Sunday NFL slate brought us more upsets, surprising performances and disappointing ones. With one game left on the schedule, we still have some nice PrizePicks to target.
“PrizePicks” is a creative new way to parlay picks based on expected fantasy point production. To dive into the ins and outs of everything PrizePicks, FTN’s Tyler Loechner wrote a comprehensive App Review.
How to Play PrizePicks NFL
For the sake of this NFL article, the format is simple.
You pick 2-5 players and predict whether they will go over or under their projected fantasy point total, or their single-stat total.
When parlaying the players, the larger your parlay, the better the payout:
- Two-pick entry pays 3x (max entry: $400)
- Three-pick entry pays 5x (max entry: $200)
- Four-pick entry pays 10x (max entry: $100)
As a bonus offer, there is a “flex play” option. This provides an added level of security on your entry where you can decrease your multiplier received if you miss one of your entries but hit on all of the others.
An important note — these lines can shift over the course of the day leading up until lock. The lines that I am quoting are at the time of writing (Monday morning). I will be in the PrizePicks Discord channel (which is FREE!) up until lock to help out with how to adjust to the changing projections.
Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
Matthew Stafford over 275.5 passing yards
Even with his No. 2 receiver out for the season and a new receiver (Odell Beckham) who is likely still adjusting to the playbook, this line is embarrassingly low for Stafford.
There has only been one game (Week 6 against the Giants) this season where Stafford failed to top this number. He fell only 26 yards short in a game where he got pulled early in the fourth quarter because of a blowout. The Niners’ defense is not the unit that they used to be and the Rams’ offense will continue to rely on the passing game. This is simply too low, and one that you should smash into every single power play.
Elijah Mitchell over 9.5 receiving yards
Mitchell has taken control of the Niners’ backfield, topping a 60% snap share in every game that he’s been active this season while logging a 66% snap share in two of the last three weeks.
Week 9 was one of his more encouraging starts, as he logged a career-high five targets, turning them into five catches for 43 yards. While he’s only logged targets in two other games this season, his Week 9 outing should only instill hope in his passing game involvement moving forward.
With the Rams coming in as heavy favorites, Mitchell could be primed for more passing down work in a negative game script, making his 9.5-yard target an attractive prop considering he may only need one catch to get there.
