Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 8 caps off with a Monday night showdown between two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum in the NFL, as the New York Giants, ravaged with injuries, head to Arrowhead to attempt to steal a game against the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs. While it feels like a lopsided matchup, there are several great lines to target on PrizePicks, making it a game worth investing in.
“PrizePicks” is a creative new way to parlay picks based on expected fantasy point production. To dive into the ins and outs of everything PrizePicks, FTN’s Tyler Loechner wrote a comprehensive App Review.
How to Play PrizePicks NFL
For the sake of this NFL article, the format is simple: You pick 2-5 players and predict whether they will go over or under their projected fantasy point total, or their single-stat total.
When parlaying the players, the larger your parlay, the better the payout:
- Two-pick entry pays 3x (max entry: $400)
- Three-pick entry pays 5x (max entry: $200)
- Four-pick entry pays 10x (max entry: $100)
As a bonus offer, there is a “flex play” option. This provides an added level of security on your entry where you can decrease your multiplier received if you miss one of your entries but hit on all of the others.
An important note — these lines can shift over the course of the day leading up until lock. The lines that I am quoting are at the time of writing (Monday morning). I will be in the PrizePicks Discord channel (which is FREE!) up until lock to help out with how to adjust to the changing projections.
Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
Daniel Jones over 242.5 passing yards
Good until 248.5
Jones has experienced extreme highs and extreme lows as a fantasy producer this season, but one thing that’s been rather consistent this season has been his ability to perform against exploitable defenses (minus Week 5 against Dallas). He’s also been a good bet to rack up yardage, despite the frequent scenarios where he walks away without any touchdowns. He’s thrown for over 240 yards in five of seven games this season, highlighted by a 402-yard performance against the Saints in Week 4 and most recently topping this benchmark by throwing for 242 yards against the Rams stout defense. With a line set at only 242.5, this should instill a ton of confidence for Monday’s tilt with the Chiefs.
Despite being without his RB1 in Saquon Barkley and his WR1 in Kenny Golladay, Jones should be viewed as a high-upside option in this game strictly based on how putrid this Chiefs’ secondary has been. On the season, they’ve allowed the sixth-most passing yards, the third-most yards per attempt (8.58), the third-most yards after the catch, and the 13th-most completions. Not having to bank on Jones converting in the end-zone is a nice level of security here, as his willingness to throw for four quarters coupled with the ineptitudes of the opposing defense are all we need to focus on. With the Giants being heavy underdogs, Jones should once again be forced into a game script where he has to throw to keep pace, making this a number I want to grab early before it likely shoots north.
Darrel Williams over 15.5 receiving yards
Good until 21.5
Speaking of gamescripts, Williams is one of the more gamescript-dependent backs in the league, having seen 21 carries in the Chiefs last win (31-13 over the Football Team), only to follow it up with a five-carry game where the Chiefs entered halftime down 24-0 to the Chargers.
The constant for Williams, however, has been his involvement in the receiving game, regardless of the script he finds himself in. In each of his last two stats, he’s caught three balls on four targets, totaling 27 and 30 yards respectively. Expanding the sample size outside of these two games, Williams’ receiving upside has remained steady over his five career games with at least 40 snaps played.
Using FTNDaily’s Splits Tool, we can see that in these games with at least 40 snaps played, he’s averaged 3.2 catches (on five targets) per game for 22 receiving yards per game. Simply put, this line of 15.5 on PrizePIcks is too low. Take advantage while it’s still at this point, as it’s sure to rise throughout the day.
