Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
I had so much fun doing MLB Prop bets yesterday that I decided to hop in and give you guys a few more today. One is a strikeout prop, the other is a HR prop. The big thing I wanted to do here is show you how I use the tools available at FTNBets and even FTNDaily to help me choose which bets to make. The bets are listed in bold, with the description of the process on top and the breakdown of the numbers underneath. I want you guys to not only make money, but also learn how to get the most out of your subscription.
Strikeout prop
When I do my strikeout prop research, the first thing I do is go to our strikeout model on the FTNBets website and check the projected strikeouts for each pitcher. Once I have that chart open, the next page I open up is our Prop Shop to see where the prop numbers and payouts are at the moment. You just type the name of any pitcher on the mound into the Prop Shop search bar and you will instantly get the prop number and price for all of that pitcher’s prop bets from every book available. Here’s what I found:
Germán Márquez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110 DraftKings)
Our strikeout model has Germán Márquez projected for 8.21 strikeouts today. In order to cash over 6.5, he would need at least 7. At plus-money, we could make a case for playing him even if the number was 7.5 and he needed 8 based on our projection. For plus money and a projection 1.21 strikeouts above what we would need in order to cash, this is a top play on the day.
HR play of the day
When I start my HR Prop research, the first tool I use is one that is located on FTNDaily. One of the columns in our MLB Projections tab is for HR%. Every player is listed with a percentage chance to hit a home run. If you take that percentage and plug it into the probability tab in our free Odds Calculator, you will get the break-even odds of that player hitting a HR. We can then compare that number to the odds being offered by the books using our Prop Shop tool again. If the odds being offered are greater than the odds in the calculator based on our projections, then that is a play you should make.
Pete Alonso to hit a HR (+325 Sugarhouse/BetRivers)
Our Projections have a HR% of 28 today for him. That equates to odds of +257. FanDuel has this number at +240. That is less than the +257 fair value our projections think it should be. BetRivers has this number at +325, which is greater than the +257 number we project as fair value. Anytime you can get a payout above projections, that is a play. The bigger the difference in the number, the better the play it is. At +325, the probability they project is close to 23.5%, which means we have about a 4.5% edge here on our projection versus. the book. That’s a playable number and why My HR call of the day is for Pete Alonso (R).
