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MLB Prop Tracker (April 30)

MLB Bets



Matt Kupferle

Contributor's Page

Welcome to the prop bet tracker. As MLB season gets into high gear, another way to get in on the action is to analyze the day’s best prop bets – from strikeouts to home runs, first to five runs to total bases logged.

Each day, we will try to identify a few picks that are ready to explode in the prop market.

Xander Bogaerts to Homer (+430, BetRivers)

After rumored to be tipping his pitches, Kohei Arihara takes the mound for the Rangers. It remains to be seen if he will perform better, but one thing is for sure – the hurler has really struggled this season, especially against right-handed bats like Xander Bogaerts. It’s a small sample size, but a 48.7% hard-hit rate and 38.5% fly-ball rate gives me all of the warm and fuzzies against a Boston offense that is really cooking in 2021. I think there are a few different bats to focus on, but Bogaerts is my bet to pop a deep one.

Gerrit Cole Over 9.5 Strikeouts (-105, DraftKings)

So far this season, it’s hard to highlight any more superlatives than we already have for Gerrit Cole, but let’s try. Cole has recorded eight or more strikeouts in every start this season. He has hit double digits in three of five games. Yes, so he’s a swing-and-miss boss – but have you looked at his opponent tonight? It’s the Detroit Tigers, who lead Major League Baseball with a strikeout rate of nearly 30%. They also have the league’s worst offense in terms of team wOBA (.269). Pound this bet.

Nathan Eovaldi Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+103, BetRivers)

If you look at Nathan Eovaldi’s strikeout log, it’s a bit fuzzy. There’s some monster efforts (like a 10 strikeout performance), followed up by some poor performances with three and four strikeout days. So, why the heck do we want to highlight a hurler with 6.5 strikeouts for his total? For starters, Eovaldi has logged a career-best 14.5% swinging-strike rate so far this season. He certainly has the ability to generate some whiffs, even if they haven’t happened just yet. Next, he will attack a Texas Rangers team that owns a 28.6% whiff rate this season, trailing only the swing-and-miss happy Tigers. Slam Eovaldi and the over.

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