Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Welcome to the prop bet tracker. As MLB season gets going, another way to get in on the action is to analyzes the day’s best prop bets – from strikeouts to home runs, first to five runs to total bases logged.
Each day, we will try and identify a few picks that are ready to explode in the prop market.
Steven Matz Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-113, BetRivers)
This one feels like a freebie. It’s got to be a trap, right? Matz has been outstanding in 2021 — he has logged better than a strikeout per inning, erasing the ugliness of 2020. And as for the Royals, what was typically a tough team to whiff has turned into a bunch of free swingers — they own a 28.9% whiff rate on the year. Jump on this line now.
Carlos Martínez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-133, BetMGM)
The piece below on my confidence in Didi Gregorius will expound on the veteran righty’s struggles, but Martínez has been horrendous. He’s giving up tons of hard contact, and his season-high mark in strikeouts in 2021 is five. This could be a very early trip to the showers.
Didi Gregorius to hit a Home Run and Team to Win (+800, DraftKings)
I’ve been very public that I believe Carlos Martínez is absolutely cooked — roasted, donezo, gone. His velocity is wayyyyy down, and an 8.70 ERA and only an 11.4% strikeout rate since the start of last year have shown how bad he’s been. I like Gregorius for mega pop, but really could go a lot of directions here — it’s a small sample, but same-sided bats own a .700 slugging percentage this year.
