MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 9/4)

It’s Wednesday in baseball, which means day games throughout the day, as well as a tasty night slate. Below, we’ll be focusing on one of the night games.

As always, odds can fluctuate, so be sure to head over to the Prop Shop to ensure you grab the best possible number.

JP Sears Over 4.5 Strikeouts

(-117, BetRivers)

When you look at JP Sears, you might not think of a strikeout pitcher, as Sears offers just an 18.5% strikeout rate this season. The good news would be that his strikeout rate in the second half of this season is 20.3%. This play has more to do with his opponent, than his own doing, however. Over the last three weeks, the Mariners are striking out at a 29.2% clip versus left-handed pitching, which ranks sixth highest in baseball.

Additionally, if we stretch that split out to since Aug. 1, Seattle’s 29.4% strikeout rate ranks third highest. Additionally, Seattle’s .178 AVG versus left-handed pitching since that time leaves more room for optimism that Sears can potentially get deep into this ballgame. While we don’t have a lineup as of this writing, five projected starters have posted a strikeout rate north of 30% versus left-handed pitching since Aug. 1.

At 4.5 strikeouts, with a projected home plate umpire who offers a 1.02x boost to strikeouts (per Swish Analytics), I’ll grab the over at -117 over on BetRivers.