MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 9/25)

It’s Wednesday in baseball, which means day games throughout the day as well as a tasty night slate. Below, we’ll be focusing on one of the night games.

As always, odds can fluctuate, so be sure to head over to the Prop Shop to ensure you grab the best possible number.

Chris Sale Under 6.5 Strikeouts

(+116, FanDuel Sportsbook)

I hate doing this, while holding a 200/1 ticket on Sale to lead baseball in strikeouts, but the forecast in Atlanta Wednesday evening is atrocious. I see three outcomes here.

1. The game is postponed, an outcome that likely means the Mets needing to fly back to Atlanta Monday and play a doubleheader to decide the final Wild Card spots, with the Wild Card beginning the following day.
2. Regardless of how hard and steady the rain is, they play nine innings, while the grounds crew works on the field throughout the game.
3. An in-game delay knocks Sale out.

I have no idea what MLB is doing. The fact that they didn’t move the game up to noon to give an extended window makes me believe they must be optimistic that they can play. The forecast itself says otherwise though, and the third scenario feels like the most likely outcome. The Mets are 21st in baseball with a 21% strikeout rate since Sept. 1, meaning they have the 10th-lowest strikeout rate over the last 3.5 weeks. As is, there’s probably some value on under 6.5 strikeouts, especially at +116, but with weather being a factor, I have to make a play on the under here.