Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s Wednesday in baseball, which means day games throughout the day, as well as a tasty night slate. Below, we’ll be focusing on one of the night games for our best bet.
As always, odds can fluctuate, so be sure to head over to the Prop Shop to ensure you grab the best possible number.
Orioles Over 4.5 Runs Team Total
(+110, Caesars)
This play was the one that immediately stood out to me. As a dynasty baseball player, I roster a lot of Hayden Birdsong, and while I love his upside, at the moment, he’s run out of gas, now 15 innings past his career high. Additionally, his command hasn’t quite developed to this point, and he has really struggled away from AT&T Park. When you factor in the lack of command, while struggling in smaller, more hitter-friendly ballparks, it can be a recipe for disaster. That just means a recipe for success for opposing offenses.
The Orioles offense has struggled in its own right in the second half of the season. Adley Rutschman has seen his slugging percentage dip below .400, while his ISO sits at .147. Colton Cowser’s Rookie of the Year case has diminished with his numbers on a massive decline. Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander continue to be extremely productive however, while Cedric Mullins has come to life as well, slashing .265/.390/.478 since the All-Star break.
As bad as the offense has been, they’re still inside the top half of baseball in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching over the last three weeks. John Libka is the projected home plate umpire in Wednesday’s game, and he owns a 1.03x boost to runs, 1.04x boost to batting average and 0.93x boost to strikeouts, per Swish Analytics. It’s a good matchup for Baltimore with a hitter-friendly umpire. At plus money, I’ll take their over 4.5 team total.
