MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 9/11)

Wednesdays are probably the best baseball days on the schedule. Basically always a full schedule, games starting just after noon and going all the way to the end of the night. It gives us something to watch all day long, and that means plenty of betting opportunities.

Below are my favorite bets for this particular Wednesday MLB slate. The odds change pretty quickly in baseball, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and check out our Pick Tracker for the key picks from around FTN.

MLB Best Bets for Wednesday

Michael King Over 7.5 Strikeouts

(+112, Caesars)

The Padres are in the sweet spot for betting in September — they’re fairly safe to make the playoffs but not completely safe, currently sitting in the first NL Wild Card slot but with three teams (and thus a non-playoff spot) within 2.5 games of them. There will be no letting off the gas for San Diego any time soon. Meanwhile, the Mariners are only on the fringe of the playoff hunt at this point, 4.5 games back in the AL West and 4 games back of the third Wild Card. They’re still going for it, but there’s a sense of fait accompli there. So we have a pitcher with a 28.2% K rate (seventh among qualified starter) on a team that is going full-bore for the playoffs facing an offense with a 27.2% rate (worst among all teams, 2.5 percentage points ahead of all but three teams) that is disappearing from the playoff hunt. King could get to this over by the end of the fifth inning, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes it 7.

Cubs/Dodgers Both to Score 2+ Runs, First 5 Innings

(+125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Dodgers are throwing Bobby Miller Wednesday, largely because they’re more or less out of pitchers. After a successful rookie year (11-4, 3.76 ERA, 3.51 FIP), the wheels have absolutely come off for Miller this year, with the 25-year-old sitting at 2-4 with a 7.79 ERA and 6.80 FIP through 11 starts around a couple of minor-league stints. The team would certainly not be starting him if there were options left, but with (deep breath) Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, River Ryan, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone on the IL, and the starters they’re still rolling out held together with baling twine, the team just needs to throw Miller out there and hope the bullpen and elite offense can make it work. And speaking of that elite offense, Jordan Wicks has been competent this year (4.03 ERA, 3.23 FIP through nine outings), but opening against a first four of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith is a situation you want better than “competent” to deal with. Expect early fireworks in this one.