MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 8/7)

It’s Wednesday in baseball, which means day games throughout the day, as well as a tasty night slate. Below, we’ll be focusing on one of the night games.

As always, odds can fluctuate, so be sure to head over to the Prop Shop to ensure you grab the best possible number.

Orioles Over 4.5 Runs Team Total

(-132, FanDuel Sportsbook)

We turn to one of the hottest offenses in Major League Baseball in the Baltimore Orioles. Over the last two weeks, the Orioles rank eighth in AVG, eighth in SLG, ninth in ISO, seventh in wOBA and sixth in wRC+. While not elite, top-of-the-league numbers, they are top 10 in every statistical category, which bodes well for their chances against a subpar right-handed starting pitcher in Bowden Francis. Want some even better news? Francis did pitch over the weekend, facing two batters, but his last start came nine days ago against these very same Orioles. In that start, Francis surrendered six hits for three runs, striking out just two, while generating just four whiffs on 40 swings.

With Francis’ previous start coming against the same lineup, I certainly view that as a nice positive for the Orioles, having had a very recent look at Francis’ stuff. Francis sports a 5.64 ERA this season and his 5.44 xERA suggests he hasn’t been unlucky as well. Francis is in the bottom 2% of baseball in opponent xSLG, while his opponent wOBA and xwOBA rank in the bottom 5%. 

Once the Orioles get into the Toronto bullpen, the Jays active relievers sport the second-worst xFIP, third-worst ERA and worst SIERA in baseball. This is shaping up to be a stellar all-around matchup for Orioles bats and I will be on their over 4.5 team total as a result.